Large scale war in Ukraine

Bild; Finska Yle

So, Ukraine, a state by Kreml and Putin called a pseudo state, is a part of Russia? If you had your family riding in a bus in the vicinity, would you violently, with certainty of collateral damage on your own family members, attack that family because they were riding in a bus together with a corrupt bus driver? Or because there was a known right wing Nazi connection of one of the forty other passengers riding in the bus, way in the back of the bus? Is that what you do with family members in Russia?

Putin is the new Hitler!

That’s it. There is nothing more to say.

Why did he do it?

Because he could? Yes, partly. But also, maybe, because his military, his transport aircraft fleet, his helicopters among other, needs spare parts from the Ukrainian military industry, former USSR military industry. And he needs the money, i.e. the women, that lives in Ukraine for the amusement of Russian men, since he cannot get to the women in the West. Whaaat? ”Did you just say what I thought you said?” Yes I did.

What can Ukraine do?

They can perhaps move their governmental institutions away from Kiev and to the south and let the Russian tanks roll deep into Ukraine, but not let the Russian support vehicles far into their country, by attacking the support vehicles in big scale ambushes with grenade rifles. But I don’t know what the environements look like in Northern Ukraine.

They can also, under controlled forms, demolish totally the industry that can be used for Russia’s nuclear capabilities.

Why did Putin not strike Ukrainian electricity first?

The infrastructure enables rapid operation in Ukraine. The road and railway network is well developed in the country. Russia and Ukraine have the same track gauge on the railway. As far as the road network is concerned, there are 103,150 miles of paved roads and 2,200 miles of unpaved roads. The railway network covers 13,400 miles, 6,400 miles is electrified railway. The railway network is mainly well developed in central and eastern Ukraine and somewhat less developed in western Ukraine. Roads and railways goes in all directions. Economic priorities within Ukraine are basicly its industry, which is mainly located in its eastern area.

What can Ukraine expect?

We need to first look at the near time history. In 2014, Russia launched a ”humanitarian” aid convoy to eastern Ukraine. Ukraine opposed this but eventually agreed to let the aid in if it was reloaded into other vehicles before the border crossing and escorted by the Red Cross. The inspection of the Russian trucks showed that many were almost empty except for a few sacks of flour. Russia chose to drive the convoy into Ukraine without the assistance of the Red Cross and in a completely different place than the one reluctantly approved by Ukraine. This is where the interesting really begins.

After the aid convoy crossed the border, it set course for the industrial city of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, which Russia identified as in dire need. In for example Luhansk, the trucks were unloaded again without international supervision, but did not return immediately and definitely not empty. Instead, extraction of parts for Russia’s war-critical industry began. During the time the Russian convoy spent in eastern Ukraine, machinery, parts and products were loaded from e.g. a factory in Donetsk that manufactures radar and telecommunications warfare systems, a factory that manufactures parts for some of the Russian nuclear missile systems, and the factory that is the only one in the former Soviet Union, which manufactures turbine blades for aircraft engines and engines for helicopters, and other critical components for some combat aircraft engines.

Don’t know if there is something else the Russians still needs from Ukraine. They would most likely want to control the Ukrainian energy sector and their agricultural sector in order to sell energy and crops to the West and other countries in the world.

Is Russia backed by God?

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, not at all! They’re backed by Satan. It’s Satan’s country now. We wash our hands.

Russia is like a mad dog that has grabbed your child and chews on your child’s arm at a distance of ten yards from you. As soon as you make an attempt to move towards the mad dog to grab and pull your child to safety or attack the dog, the crazy dog stops chewing and stares you in your eyes, still with its jaws around your child’s arm, clearly threatening to instantly tear your child in pieces with his jaws if you continue to move forward. So you stop, and the mad dog starts chewing on your baby’s arm again, slowly chewing your baby to death observing all your movements. Your baby will either be eaten slowly or torn to death quickly, it’s up to you, even if the procedure is resumed.

Will Russia quit after Ukraine

No! As a matter of fact, the big Swedish island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea is probably next. And then the Baltic states. And then Finland. And then Northern Sweden through Finland. And then Scania, the South end of Sweden. And then parts of Norway and Denmark. And then Romania and Bulgaria perhaps. Something like that.

Where is Putin now?

Probably his palace in Gelendzjik near the Kertj strait between Ukrainian Crimea and Russia is thought to be like an ”Eagles Nest” by Putin and FSB and GRU in a situation like this.

Roger M. Klang

Biden’s second strategic change

There are signs that the United States is changing course with its grand strategic plans. The oil dependent United States’ major political actions are often accurately interpreted in the Middle Eastern media platform Al Jazeera. The Al Jazeera news are then reflected in the Israeli news and interpreted in WIN and UWI and probably other Israeli media. The Kuwaitis seem to have realized what is going on in the grand strategic game. An article from February 6, 2022 in World Israel News is the first clear indication.

”Kuwait’s Information Ministry says Gal Gadot’s latest film shouldn’t be screened in country because she served in the IDF.”Quote WIN preamble

Biden has for a long time been increasingly withdrawing from Israel. The Israeli government officials are worried (this was the first sign).

It is not in the line of strategic thinking that the Arabs are failing cognitively. They are at least as good at strategic thinking and analysis as we are, maybe even better. It is in the field of operational and especially tactical areas that they fail cognitively. They also lack self-control to any great extent. Of course, the extremist Jihadists are not very knowledgeable. It is the more moderate Arabs, such as the Al Jazeera journalists, who can figure out grand strategy. They have many years of experience in following international media. Which extremist has that? In what country do extremists have experience in following international media at all? These people can not walk in other people’s moccasins at all. Al Jazeera is also generous with its information sharing and it is straightforward.

The reason why Biden has probably altered the US grand strategy is that the US is dependent on that the war against Iran becomes one in which the world community and above all Europe participates, and the USA is not exactly winning hearts and minds right now. That is probably slowly being rectified by Biden’s new strategic moves.

For those who are living on the back of the moon or are hearing these words at a much later moment in time I will just invoke the notion of a pending war in Europe. If you are preoccupied with the Eurovision festival please use headphones as bullets may be flying around your head.

If the Biden administration could have deceived the EU that it was Iran that wanted a war, then they would still not be able to obstruct China’s influence in the Persian Gulf, the Chinese could continue to buy oil from the oil producing countries there while the US is drained of young blood. Alternatively, there would be a war against China in any case. But it was a limited war that Biden was looking for and it would have been the opposite result in that case. Therefore, Biden probably sees it as a war against China and the United States is inevitable. And that war will not be started by the United States.

But we are not out of the woods yet. Sweden can still become a singular target for Russia. However, I think we can revise our previous position to the United States that Sweden only contributes and fights in its immediate area in the event of a major war if Biden have really changed his mind and called off the impending war against Iran. If so, we can ask what we can do for the US in the event of a war in the South China Sea. We can offer Biden our services.

Sources;

World Israel News (WIN), February 6, 2022;

Kuwait bans upcoming movie starring Gal Gadot, ‘former soldier in Zionist occupying army’

United With Israel (UWI), February 7, 2022;

Biden Should Be Ashamed of His Treatment of the UAE

United With Israel (UWI), February 7, 2022;

Will Biden’s ‘Bad Luck’ with Visits to Israel End in 2022?

Merkel visiting the White House for the last time

On Thursday, July 15, 2021, a US president received German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the last time in the White House and, not surprisingly, the meeting was partly about the Nordstream II gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.

“We have reached different conclusions about what the project entails,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after the meeting.

Joe Biden nevertheless pointed out that they agree upon that Russia will not be allowed to use the gas pipeline as a way of exerting pressure on neighboring countries.

Source; Sveriges radio

Oh, how sweet. Biden and Merkel sitting in a tree, K-I-S-S-I-N-G. What does their statements mean then? I can tell you what it does not imply. This does not mean that the project will end, and it does not mean that Biden has not given the Nordstream II project its blessing.

”… What the project entails.” What does it tell us? Probably that the project will be realized and one should not discuss the realization of the project, but only what the project entails for the two concerned, Germany and the US.

And ”Russia will not be allowed to use the gas pipeline as a means of exerting pressure on neighboring countries.” Does that mean that the project will be realized then?

This means that Merkel passes to Biden, who passes back to Merkel who scooooores!!!! The course is fixed and the war against Iran will continue to be pursued. Syria is the country where Boots on the Ground will take place. Kremlin is kept happy so that Russia will not use its air base in Latakia and its naval base in Tartous to attack US forces during the vulnerable and delicate initial phase, or otherwise will not disrupt the process and thereby spoiling the US opening move. As an icing on the cake, Russia can, with mild coerciveness, put pressure on Assad not to intervene against the Americans when they arrive.

Sure enough, a treaty over the gas pipeline is close, according to a Sveriges radio article July 20, 2021. But to be honest, one of the reasons for this Merkel-Biden agreement can also have something to do with growing and overt neo-nazi movements in Germany making Germany destined for Hell. But it is not the only or the main reason from Biden’s perspective.

The German-American companionship that began with some sort of ’declarations of love’ between George W. Bush and Angela Merkel some day when Merkel was in the United States beforehand, is also possibly the reason why Russia more or less simultaneously with Merkel’s US visit threatened the Taliban, i.e. Afghanistan, with a beating. Sveriges radio commented on this in July 14, 2021, saying, quote;

”Russia warns the Taliban of threatening the security of its allies in Central Asia. The announcement comes after a delegation visited Moscow last week. The Russian Foreign Ministry also calls on the Taliban to start negotiations to create a transitional government before it is too late.” End quote.

Four days later there was another quote;

”The Taliban’s advance in Afghanistan could leave room for China while the United States withdraws from the region. During the week, China offered to take on the role as a new mediator in Afghanistan.” End quotes; Sveriges radio

This Merkel visit to the United States and what they talked about there is possibly also the reason why Russia simultaneously with the visit, leaked information that Putin was plotting to get Donald Trump elected through what is known as the Russiagate. Listen to the choice of words in the presentation of the leaked Russian information from the Kremlin to the newspaper The Guardian;

“Putin had a plot to put Trump in the White House.”

Does that mean Putin is on his way out? Or is it the journalists’ own interpretations of the information they received, that Putin himself (but apparently not the Kremlin) plotted to get Donald Trump elected?

Deutsche Welle published a video in which George W. Bush was interviewed after Merkel’s visit to the former president. The video has the title; ’She did what’s best for Germany’ – George W. Bush on Angela Merkel’s legacy.

Probably she did. But how it rained in Germany! Is she not a Christian? You’d think that she would make a conclusion from this coincidence, as a Christian. Apparently she is not a very good Christian.

With regard to the heavy rainfall and flooding in Germany in mid July 2021. It should be interesting to see how well the Germans will be able to negotiate with Ukraine over the purchase of grains, crops and potatoes considering the Germans’ well known ambitions to enforce the Nordstream II pipeline in the Baltic Sea. That might not end too well my German friends. Well, there is always Poland. Nordstream II is extremely unfavorable to the Ukrainians because the Russians can bypass gas that otherwise would have run through Ukrainian gas pipelines to above all Germany. To do like the Germans do and cut Ukraine out of any strategic leverage as a nation, leaves Ukraine in a seriously dangerous position. Now Germany might reap what they sowed.

Added note:

[Simultaneously with Merkel’s visit to the United States, the western and south-western parts of Germany were drowned in up to three-meter-high rivers of rain, killing hundreds of people. It happens to be the worst in the industrialized Ruhr area around the river Rhine, where rainfall always gathers to. This will probably affect us Swedes economically in the short run and many, many other nations too. Roger’s note]

Roger M. Klang

This lesson is further updated

Sources:

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/merkel-i-vita-huset-for-sista-gangen

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/avtal-nara-om-nord-stream-2

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/ryssland-varnar-talibanerna

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/kina-kan-utnyttja-talibanernas-frammarsch

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/stigande-dodsstal-efter-oversvamningarna-183-bekraftat-omkomna

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/stora-ekonomiska-effekter-av-oversvamningarna

6) China: the Silk Road. Lesson thirtyeight

New or modernized and expanded Chinese railway line in the picture below. Will it be difficult because of mountainous areas to connect this railway line to the already existing railway that extends south of the Caspian Sea from east to west through Iran and into central Turkey and Ankara and beyond to Istanbul? There is nothing that suggest it. The oil from Baku must reach further, otherwise it would make no sense to build a railway line from Baku to Turkey. But the oil does not come by railway trains. There are existing oil pipelines from Baku to Istanbul via Georgia, and from Baku to Turkey’s southeast coastal area via Georgia. Russia is present in Syria’s western coastal area south of Turkey, with a naval base in Tartous with the S-400 and S-300 air defense systems deployed, and an airbase protected by air defense systems in Latakia located about 100 km north of Tartous. Given these oil pipes running through Turkey and the railway line that looks like it stops indefinitely on the map below, who knows where it will be drawn next.

There are reportedly also 40,000 Russian citizens in Syria of which most probably are tourists in the unharmed Tartous or Latakia or the rather untouched central Aleppo, whose presence should not be extenuated when Russia implements its major strategy plans and tries to obstruct others. Russia is now (2018) caught up in the game. China wants to expand the oil pipelines to Turkey’s southeastern coastal area, Russia probably does not want this as long as China also aspires to expand the “Silk Road Economic Belt” by land towards Europe, because this threatens Russia’s southern front.

Russia is thus dependent on the turncoat state of Turkey and that Beijing does not have Turkey in their pocket, and they have, among other things, therefore, had negotiations with Turkey about initiating a sale of the S-400 Triumph air defense system to the country. Turkey has already made an advance payment and is hoping for delivery by 2019. The issue is discussed according to what Kremlin adviser Vladimir Kozhin told the Russian news agency TASS in September 2017. The Russian leadership is often forced to concentrate resources, preparations and efforts to Russia’s southern and eastern borders. Many times it is of a military and economic nature. These playfields are primarily much more important for Russia’s security than the Baltic issue is. Much of their strategy in the northwest is a luxury they can sometimes engage in.

Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey thus put an 826 km long railway on their territories (reported in November 2017). The question is whether the Chinese want or intend to resolve the issue of how to pass over or under the 300 km (186 miles) long stretch of the Caspian Sea. Traveling 300 km across the Caspian Sea from Turkmenistan to the oil-rich Baku by ship is a realistic solution. They also probably see a solution with an existing railway line south of the Caspian Sea in Iran. I don’t think Russia is happy about these plans because the influence over the oil-rich Baku is slipping over to China’s court. The Russian interest will probably be shifted to the south and towards China in the near future. But in St. Petersburg and in Kaliningrad, Russia’s plans will continue as usual. It is cunningly done by the Chinese to make Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey invest in China’s evil scheemes for Europe. But this railway is just one of all the railways, roads and fairways, which together make up the modern Chinese Silk Road Economic Belt project. Bit by bit and under obscurity, they are single-mindedly building on this logistical venture’s partly civilian project and partly military project. The silk road is the largest logistic project of all time, which requires a well-developed infrastructure, project planning and investments in transit countries.

The problem with the silk road project is not primarily that there are no good roads. It is laying down oil and gas pipelines, the creation and maintenance of infrastructure such as gas stations, service stations, power stations, drinking water, animal husbandry, agricultural production, food processing and irrigation projects in the silk road transit countries that the challenge lies in. It requires even more fuel and resources of fresh water. Creating opportunities for this can easily be a geopolitical gamble. It will be difficult to provide maintenance support for entire armies. Deserts must be crossed and power plants require fuel, nuclear power plants require water, personnel require drinking water. Perhaps one has to bypass some of the railways with a regular road where the transported vehicles move on their own machine. But they can also lay down water pipes to the steam generator in nuclear power plants. Not even on a multi-track railway, can you transport as many combat vehicles as needed in a short time. Towing vehicles, drinking water, fuel, tires, service personnel, spare parts and rolling mechanical service stations for trucks will require a large part of the space in the trains. Iran doesn’t lack oil but they have a quality on their oil that is not suitable for making diesel from, which means that diesel is rationed and reserved for Iranian truck drivers.

Locomotives probably require relatively flat ground if they are to be able to pull long and heavy trains fully loaded with tanks and fuel. That being said, the world’s highest railway line is Chinese and crosses the Kunlun Shan 3,000-5,000 meters above sea level. It is called the Qingzang railway. It is conceivable that a railway line, if it is not stretched over or through mountains, runs from Inner Mongolia (belonging to China) to Gansu to the Uighur land Xinjiang, into Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and further via southern Iran along the coast of the Persian Gulf and further northwest through Iraq and Syria and southern Turkey. In a war, southern Turkey becomes the most vulnerable stretch, requiring control of the eastern Mediterranean. From Beijing to Istanbul, the train route is >14,000 km of country road which I describe above. But the Chinese may have to punch at least one hole in the Chinese wall, which is actually several walls from different eras and which are on the UNESCO World Heritage List.

The Chinese are planning infrastructure investments for a railroad, a country road and oil pipelines between the port city of Gwadar in southwestern Pakistan and Kashgar in western China, or are already building them. It sounds quite logical. What then follows causally is that China completes the port of Gwadar for their Naval forces and merchant ships in southern Pakistan at the Arabian Sea and a military airport, if they get permission from Pakistan. According to the Financial Times web release in May 2011, Pakistan’s Defense Minister has requested from China to build a Chinese military base for Gwadar’s port. In Uganda 1 200 km southwest of Djibouti there are giant oil reserves. It does not have to be said that the great powers are fighting hard for these oil reserves, which are estimated to exceed the total oil reserves of the OPEC countries put together.

It has been established that the total raw material resources under the Caspian Sea is almost twice as large as all commodity assets in the whole of the United States. Kurdistan has the so-called Taq taq field and has increased its production of oil more than one hundred times from 2,000 barrels of oil a day since new discoveries were discovered in the 00’s. On the border between Kazakhstan and Russia, there are huge reserves in the Karachaganak field, 42 trillion cubic feet of natural gas as well as liquid natural gas and crude oil. In Turkmenistan, there are gas assets of no less than seven hundred trillion calculated cubic feet in the ground, the fourth largest deposit in the world. In addition, gold mines in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are part of the Tian Shan belt. These are the second largest gold deposits in the world after the Witwatersrand mountain in South-Africa. Both Beryllium, Dysprosium and other Rare Earth Element metals have been found in Kazakhstan. These are important in the manufacture of mobile phones, laptops and rechargeable batteries, as well as Uranium and Plutonium which are necessary for nuclear energy and nuclear warheads.

In eastern Ukraine towards the border with Russia in the Donetsk basin, where there is a state of war, there are coal resources with up to about ten billion tonnes. U.S. Geological Service states that there are 1.4 billion barrels of oil and 2.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in addition to considerable amounts of liquid natural gas. Also the fertile black topsoil of Ukraine and southern Russia is sought after. A non-governmental organization has concluded that land worth nearly $ 1 billion in Ukraine alone is being dug up and sold annually. Crop failure and war in Ukraine affect both the price of technology products, cereals and oil.

An expanded and existing railway line between China-Germany will soon reach Paris. Major investments in those transcontinental rail lines have opened for freight routes along the more than 11,000 km long international Iuxinous railway, which runs from China to Duisburg in Germany. 800 m long trains have begun to transport millions of laptops, shoes, clothing and other consumer goods in one direction, and electronics, car parts and medical equipment in the other on a journey that takes 16 days. Significantly faster than the sea route from Chinese ports in the Pacific. Source: The Silk Roads; by Peter Frankopan

Sources:
The Silk Roads; by Peter Frankopan
SR;Ekot

Homework:

We know that the US facilitates the economic development of the Central Asian former Sovjet republic “Stan-countries”. But it can be for more than one reason. Why do you think the US do this? I mean, they’ve already left Afghanistan.

Justify your answer please.

Roger M. Klang, defense political Spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

Mirror imaging. Lesson thirtytwo

Russia argues that NATOs Kosovo mission in the 1990s was identical to Russia’s takeover of the Crimea. But the Kosovo mission was only implemented after lasting discussions which involved the entire NATO which dealt with a far reaching and long-lasting crisis that caused the UN Security Council to perceive the Kosovo conflict as a threat to international peace and security.

In the Crimea, however, there was no previous crisis, there were no attempts to discuss the situation with the Ukrainian government and the UN was not involved, and finally no attempt was made to mediate. In Kosovo, international efforts were made to find a solution over a period of 3,000 days. In the Crimea, Russia annexed parts of Ukraine’s territory in less than 30 days.

Russia has tried to justify its illegal and illegitimate annexation partly by referring to the referendum that took place in the Crimea. But the referendum was incompatible with Ukrainian law and was held under an illegal occupation force, without freedom of expression or media access for the opposition, and without credible international monitoring of the election.

Russia claims that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate. Ukrainian President Poroshenko was elected with a clear majority in an election that the OSCE election organization characterized;

”clear resolve of the authorities to hold what was a genuine election largely in line with international commitments and with a respect for fundamental freedoms.”

The only areas in which serious restrictions were reported were in areas that were controlled by the pro-russian separatists who undertook; “Increasing attempts to derail the process.” Official Russian administrators continue to claim that the Ukrainian parliament and government are dominated by Nazis and fascists. But in the parliamentary elections, the parties that Russia claimed to be facsist got far less than 5 percent of the votes required for these parties to take their seats in Parliament. The voters in Ukraine voted for unity and moderation, not separatism or extremism, and the composition of parliamentarians reflects it.

In short, the Ukrainian President and Parliament are legitimate while the separatists’ actions were not.

Source; North Atlantic Treaty Organization

Homework:

Is there any possibility that Russia can soak this up? Can you think of a credible pro-russian counterargument if you are pro-russian? Don’t waste my time with pseudo arguments!

Can you add any credible arguments against Russia if you are pro-ukrainian?

Roger M. Klang, defense political Spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden