Large scale war in Ukraine

Bild; Finska Yle

So, Ukraine, a state by Kreml and Putin called a pseudo state, is a part of Russia? If you had your family riding in a bus in the vicinity, would you violently, with certainty of collateral damage on your own family members, attack that family because they were riding in a bus together with a corrupt bus driver? Or because there was a known right wing Nazi connection of one of the forty other passengers riding in the bus, way in the back of the bus? Is that what you do with family members in Russia?

Putin is the new Hitler!

That’s it. There is nothing more to say.

Why did he do it?

Because he could? Yes, partly. But also, maybe, because his military, his transport aircraft fleet, his helicopters among other, needs spare parts from the Ukrainian military industry, former USSR military industry. And he needs the money, i.e. the women, that lives in Ukraine for the amusement of Russian men, since he cannot get to the women in the West. Whaaat? ”Did you just say what I thought you said?” Yes I did.

What can Ukraine do?

They can perhaps move their governmental institutions away from Kiev and to the south and let the Russian tanks roll deep into Ukraine, but not let the Russian support vehicles far into their country, by attacking the support vehicles in big scale ambushes with grenade rifles. But I don’t know what the environements look like in Northern Ukraine.

They can also, under controlled forms, demolish totally the industry that can be used for Russia’s nuclear capabilities.

Why did Putin not strike Ukrainian electricity first?

The infrastructure enables rapid operation in Ukraine. The road and railway network is well developed in the country. Russia and Ukraine have the same track gauge on the railway. As far as the road network is concerned, there are 103,150 miles of paved roads and 2,200 miles of unpaved roads. The railway network covers 13,400 miles, 6,400 miles is electrified railway. The railway network is mainly well developed in central and eastern Ukraine and somewhat less developed in western Ukraine. Roads and railways goes in all directions. Economic priorities within Ukraine are basicly its industry, which is mainly located in its eastern area.

What can Ukraine expect?

We need to first look at the near time history. In 2014, Russia launched a ”humanitarian” aid convoy to eastern Ukraine. Ukraine opposed this but eventually agreed to let the aid in if it was reloaded into other vehicles before the border crossing and escorted by the Red Cross. The inspection of the Russian trucks showed that many were almost empty except for a few sacks of flour. Russia chose to drive the convoy into Ukraine without the assistance of the Red Cross and in a completely different place than the one reluctantly approved by Ukraine. This is where the interesting really begins.

After the aid convoy crossed the border, it set course for the industrial city of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, which Russia identified as in dire need. In for example Luhansk, the trucks were unloaded again without international supervision, but did not return immediately and definitely not empty. Instead, extraction of parts for Russia’s war-critical industry began. During the time the Russian convoy spent in eastern Ukraine, machinery, parts and products were loaded from e.g. a factory in Donetsk that manufactures radar and telecommunications warfare systems, a factory that manufactures parts for some of the Russian nuclear missile systems, and the factory that is the only one in the former Soviet Union, which manufactures turbine blades for aircraft engines and engines for helicopters, and other critical components for some combat aircraft engines.

Don’t know if there is something else the Russians still needs from Ukraine. They would most likely want to control the Ukrainian energy sector and their agricultural sector in order to sell energy and crops to the West and other countries in the world.

Is Russia backed by God?

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, not at all! They’re backed by Satan. It’s Satan’s country now. We wash our hands.

Russia is like a mad dog that has grabbed your child and chews on your child’s arm at a distance of ten yards from you. As soon as you make an attempt to move towards the mad dog to grab and pull your child to safety or attack the dog, the crazy dog stops chewing and stares you in your eyes, still with its jaws around your child’s arm, clearly threatening to instantly tear your child in pieces with his jaws if you continue to move forward. So you stop, and the mad dog starts chewing on your baby’s arm again, slowly chewing your baby to death observing all your movements. Your baby will either be eaten slowly or torn to death quickly, it’s up to you, even if the procedure is resumed.

Will Russia quit after Ukraine

No! As a matter of fact, the big Swedish island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea is probably next. And then the Baltic states. And then Finland. And then Northern Sweden through Finland. And then Scania, the South end of Sweden. And then parts of Norway and Denmark. And then Romania and Bulgaria perhaps. Something like that.

Where is Putin now?

Probably his palace in Gelendzjik near the Kertj strait between Ukrainian Crimea and Russia is thought to be like an ”Eagles Nest” by Putin and FSB and GRU in a situation like this.

Roger M. Klang

Mirror imaging. Lesson thirtytwo

Russia argues that NATOs Kosovo mission in the 1990s was identical to Russia’s takeover of the Crimea. But the Kosovo mission was only implemented after lasting discussions which involved the entire NATO which dealt with a far reaching and long-lasting crisis that caused the UN Security Council to perceive the Kosovo conflict as a threat to international peace and security.

In the Crimea, however, there was no previous crisis, there were no attempts to discuss the situation with the Ukrainian government and the UN was not involved, and finally no attempt was made to mediate. In Kosovo, international efforts were made to find a solution over a period of 3,000 days. In the Crimea, Russia annexed parts of Ukraine’s territory in less than 30 days.

Russia has tried to justify its illegal and illegitimate annexation partly by referring to the referendum that took place in the Crimea. But the referendum was incompatible with Ukrainian law and was held under an illegal occupation force, without freedom of expression or media access for the opposition, and without credible international monitoring of the election.

Russia claims that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate. Ukrainian President Poroshenko was elected with a clear majority in an election that the OSCE election organization characterized;

”clear resolve of the authorities to hold what was a genuine election largely in line with international commitments and with a respect for fundamental freedoms.”

The only areas in which serious restrictions were reported were in areas that were controlled by the pro-russian separatists who undertook; “Increasing attempts to derail the process.” Official Russian administrators continue to claim that the Ukrainian parliament and government are dominated by Nazis and fascists. But in the parliamentary elections, the parties that Russia claimed to be facsist got far less than 5 percent of the votes required for these parties to take their seats in Parliament. The voters in Ukraine voted for unity and moderation, not separatism or extremism, and the composition of parliamentarians reflects it.

In short, the Ukrainian President and Parliament are legitimate while the separatists’ actions were not.

Source; North Atlantic Treaty Organization

Homework:

Is there any possibility that Russia can soak this up? Can you think of a credible pro-russian counterargument if you are pro-russian? Don’t waste my time with pseudo arguments!

Can you add any credible arguments against Russia if you are pro-ukrainian?

Roger M. Klang, defense political Spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

War in Europe – Ukraine vs. Whom. Lesson thirtyone

It is said by a singular Western source that the Russian annexation of the Ukrainian Crimean Peninsula and the illegal warfare in Donbass is about Russia not wanting to see Exxon and Shell extract gas deposits in Western Ukraine, as Russia would then lose its main source of income, to sell gas to the EU, particularly to Germany.

It is telling that Russia attacked Ukraine by annexing Crimea even before the Olympic Games of 2014 in Russian Sotji had ended. It is also interesting that Euromaidan was initiated just before the winter Olympics in Sotji started. I am a man not prone to belive in coincidences that happens for no apparent reason. Also, Viktor Yanukovych was in Putin’s pocket. What does all this tell us?

For one, Russia absolutely must have had a plan for invading Crimea. They have a plan for invading every country in their neighborhood. All Putin has to do is to say that word, and the ball is rolling. This was a turf war.

On the other hand, the Kremlin has been claiming all along that the US had their hands in the jelly jar, referring to Euromaidan who just so happens was initiated right before the Olympics in Sotji. As I said, I am a man not prone to Believe in apparent coincidences and obvious fairytales. Exxon wanted to steal away Russian gas supplies to various European countries by exploiting Ukrainian gas reserves. Exxon and Obama wanted to transform Ukraine into a modern western democracy. So goodbye Russian gas supplies to the West and goodbye Russian import of vital components, like those for the Russian nuclear deterrent capacity and Russia’s helicopter fleet, components from the former Soviet republic Ukraine, sold to Russia. And goodbye Russian supplies of coal from Ukraine. Putin wasn’t going to sit idle and wait for that to happen. Did I mention that most factories, including those of the above mentioned, in Ukraine are located in the Eastern half of Ukraine?

But the annexation of Crimea explicitly violates the Budapest Declaration. Crimea is not part of Russia. In 1991, there was a referendum where they voted to belong to Ukraine, and in 1994 Russia signed the Budapest Declaration, an agreement to respect Ukraine’s borders forever.

In March 2014, Crimea declared itself independent from Ukraine and applied to join Russia. The Russian military mobilized on the Russian side of the border. 60,000 Russian soldiers were summoned at the eastern border of Ukraine at the time and 20,000 more in the Crimea. Ukraine’s parliament decided to mobilize 40,000 reservists in response to Crimea saying that it would take over the Ukrainian military bases.

When all the voices had been counted after the following referendum in Crimea, 97 percent had voted for that the peninsula should break free from Ukraine and join Russia. The voting populus in the election were said to be more than 80 percent. The number of ethnic Russians in the Crimea was 60 percent of the population in 2014. 25 percent were Ukrainians and 12 percent were Crimean Tatars, smaller ethnicities not mentioned. The Crimean Tatars are generally Russian-hostile since the days of Stalin’s deportations.

If all who did not vote were Ukrainians and Tatars and all Ukrainians and Tatars who voted, voted for Crimea to separate from Ukraine, and all ethnic Russians also voted for a separation, the election result would be correct with a few percent error margin. Neither Ukraine, the EU nor the United States recognized the election result. The Crimean management immediately started a nationalization of Ukrainian property by taking over banks, companies, the railway and an energy company. The EU introduced travel bans and frozen accounts abroad for some Russian and Crimean leaders.

The distinctive feature of this war is Russian disinformation and even more disinformation. It is not easy for a citizen to see passed the Russian disinformation, unless you happen to live in Ukraine. To disinform means to distort, hide or completely concoct information in order to mislead and influence a target group in a certain direction. Disinformation creates what is called “the fog of war”. But one can look at a map and compare it with the news flow and ascertain that the battles have been most intense around the relatively large airports in Donetsk and Luhansk, which are now totally bombarded. Almost 20 percent of the Ukrainian cities are located in the Donbass. In addition, the separatists have a corridor to Russia in the east.

Russia’s main disinformation campaign is still ongoing. Russia claims that they have the right to create buffer zones in sovereign non-aligned states against NATO according to the self-defense principle. Russia has no such right! On the other hand, small states have the right to choose their allies and friends as much as Russia takes that right, without having to be attacked.

Tsar Putin paints a picture of unrest and oppression that now affects ethnic Russians outside of Russia. The fact that the picture is partly and sometimes entirely created by the Russian secret services and/or Russian media can take its time to unravel and not everyone can connect Moscow’s claim with what later emerges. On 27-28 February of 2014, key buildings and airports in the Crimea were occupied, while at the same time Ukrainian military installations were blocked or occupied. Putin vigorously denied that Russia was invading Crimea. The so-called “Small green men” who occupied Crimea lacked identification features. It was just “local self-defense forces,” Putin was saying.

“Russia have no plans to enter eastern Ukraine.” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in March 2014 to the US Secretary of Defense, while info pointed to that Russian soldiers had stormed three Ukrainian warships, according to the news agency AP’s photographers at place in the port of Sevastopol. “Russian soldiers along the border with Ukraine are only there for military exercises and should not cross the border,” said Shoigu. Defense Minister Chuck Hagel had an almost one hour long phone call with his Russian counterpart where Hagel demanded an explanation why Russia placed forces along the borders with eastern and southern Ukraine. The source is a spokesperson for the US Defense Minister.

Only when the annexation was completed did President Putin confirm that the soldiers in Crimea were Russian soldiers. Interestingly in this context, the medal these soldiers were then to receive, where the embossing on the back shows the dates of the operation as February 20 to March 18. February 20 was the day before Yanukovych fled Ukraine and only on February 26 did the small green men appear in Crimea. Speaking of the annexation, one of the Russian state media for foreigners, “Russia’s Voice”, had a newslet on March 4, 2014; “Russia does not intend to seize Crimea”. What has made Ukraine’s situation worse is the country’s dependence on Russian gas and that they have therefore had to stand with their cap in their hands before Putin when they have made gas deals during the war. Source; Joakim von Braun

Putin has not given up on the idea of seizing the strategically important Ukrainian port and airport in the city of Odessa. While the city of Mariupol is a first step to creating a land road to the occupied Crimean Peninsula in the Black Sea, Odessa is needed to create a longer land connection to Transnistria where Russia has a military base. Transnistria can only be reached through Ukraine or Moldova. They are looking to create a Mare Nostrum (Our Sea) and must eventually conquer the entire coast of Ukraine along the Black Sea.

Since Russia has launched a war on Ukraine, Russia’s only opportunity to reach, supply and support Transnistria is to fly in via Romanian airspace to Moldova’s largest airport at Chisinau in the inland. But Russia cannot supply Transnistria with new ammunition and modern weapons via the airport because Moldova inspects every incoming airplane. Therefore, Russia will sooner or later want to attack Odessa to create a direct land connection to Transnistria and deprive Ukraine of its main port, which will further weaken Ukraine’s economy. In the year of 2014, Russian agents repeatedly infiltrated Odessa from Transnistria and placed bombs in offices and business locations of the pro-ukrainian civil society’s organizations. Source; Euromaidan Press

Euromaidan

Euromaidan was a popular manifestation of discontent that took place on the Independence Square in Kiev against the regime for more than 100 days in 2013-2014, ultimately against the President of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych sneaked away from Euromaidans’ grip on February 21 after the police shooting with deadly outcome, and then appeared in the Russian city of Rostov at Don, where he held a press conference and claimed that he was Ukraine’s legitimate president and that the opposition had carried out a coup d’état. Those of the parliamentarians in Yanukovych’s own Party who had not fled the country loaded with cash, gold and antiques, voted to dethrone Yanukovych in the Ukrainian Parliament (Rada) who dismissed Yanukovych with an 82% majority. By fleeing he had also renounced his presidency. The Russian-friendly Yanukovych was displaced by his people, because he chose a Russian oriented politics and shunned the EU. He was notorious for imprisoning high oppositionists such as Yulia Tymoshenko, the former president of Ukraine, and part of her entourage too. The reason? Yulia made a bad gas energy deal with Russia, the same Russia which Yanukovych himself favored.

Homework:

This lesson is only about the beginning and the end goal for Russia in this war. I have one simple question for you; Do you, or do you not put the blame on Russia for the war in eastern Ukraine i.e. in Donbass? Do you, or do you not put the blame on Russia for the Russian annexation of Crimea? Please do not motivate your standpoint to me! A simple yes or no would do.

Sources:
Euromaidan Press
Joakim von Braun

Roger M. Klang, defense political Spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden