The Nile river

Sunni-Muslim Sudan is the next country together with Morocco and Oman to be on the Israeli list of charm offensives, according to the news site United With Israel from the 13th of October 2021.

Of course it helps that Israel can be a conciliator between Sudan and Egypt concerning the fresh water from the Nile and dam projects in Sudan. And why do Israel want to be friends with Morocco? One word; precious Phosphates, needed by the US farmers. That’s it, at least as far as I understand it.

A reiteration: Two thirds of the world production of phosphates are mined in China, the United States and Morocco/Western Sahara. Morocco and the, by Morocco occupied Western Sahara account for 30 percent of the export market. US phosphate reserves will last for nearly 30 years for US use only. The United States does not export phosphate ore. Neither does China. The world’s phosphate reserves are estimated to be around 15 billion tonnes, which is sufficient for the world’s consumption for 90 years with current technology, according to the US Geological Survey. Phosphate production in the world will not come to a critical low level before the world’s oil reserves peter out. Thus, phosphate production in Morocco/Western Sahara is strategically secondary. This did not prevent the US from making a bilateral trade deal with Morocco in 2006. The European Union didn’t jump on the train until two years later. And the early US bilateral trade deal with Morocco is also a spoiler for us Europeans. The US and Israel are thus heading for a war on Iran? Short answer, Yes. Long answer, don’t forget about Taiwan.

Also, UAE and Bahrain have been charmed by the Israelis already. The US is going to get a severe oil shortage sometime around 2024. The US wants war, Israel wants war, not necessarily for the same reason. There is going to be a war against Iran, unless Iran abides to their then master the US. Do you think that it is a coincidence that the Arab states, Saudi-Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and UAE suddenly changed their negative policies into an including policy on israel? No, the Arabs on the Arabian peninsula in particular would all too happily see an American and Israeli war against Iran. Iran isn’t just Israel’s worst enemy, it is in practice the Arabs’ worst enemies too. They feel very threatened by Iran. They themselves do not want to fight Iran but would happily fuel the war and support the US use of the American bases in Qatar, Bahrain and UAE.

Saudi-Arabia knows they are not ready to fight Iran, and they probably never will be ready for a fight against Iran. Israel on the other hand is ready for a war. But I am sceptical about how it could be possible for the Israelis to strike the bunker systems at Mashad in Iran where the strategic nuclear forces will be located, at least with the Israeli Air Force without help from the US.

A quote from a seemingly well informed Israeli: ”Indeed, it won’t be easy for the IDF. They do have some bunker-buster technology, but what they need for the Iranian deep, heavily armored and hardened bunkers is re-entrant hypervelocity Mach 10+ bunkerbusters. Those are launched from space and only the US has that capability. The good news is that these are, due to the extreme speed, horrendously powerful. Although completely conventional, one single penetration hit has the equivalent explosive damage as that from a medium-yield nuclear weapon.”

Does the US really have such a space weapon? Who knows, they certainly have become more restricted with publishing information about their military technical progress and achievements.

Source:

United With Israel

China’s grand slam, occupy Taiwan and South Korea

In the online news channel South China Morning Post, or rather in the likely online disinformation channel South China Morning Post, a Chinese retired air force general spoke about that the Chinese aren’t up to invading Taiwan sometime soon. According to SCMP, the air force general is ”seen as a hawkish voice in China”. This so called news flash was from the 4th of may in 2020. Well, they didn’t invade back then. Not that they didn’t want to, I am sure of that.

The article doesn’t sneak around the bushes unnecessarily much, though it does say that it is ”Too costly” to ”take back Taiwan by force”, which isn’t necessarily true. But the article also clearly stated somewhere in there that;

”His [the chinese air force general] remarks come amid rising nationalistic sentiment, with calls for Beijing to take action on the self-ruled island.”

What is unclear, as in a ’fog of war’, is of course that Qiao Liang [the air force general] says; ”the focus should be on achieving ‘a good life’ for all Chinese”. The truth is that the focus for the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) right now is on achieving absolute control down to installing cameras in the peoples’ private toilet seats. I have read somewhere that the surveillance state in China, costs more money to keep going than the whole of PLA (Peoples Liberation Army), which includes the naval forces, the air force, the space force and the strategic forces.

So what do the CCP want? It started out as a simple territorial dispute. CCP claims that Taiwan is a part of China and that the name ’Taiwan’ is not the name of a state, that the name doesn’t exist even. They call Taiwan ”the self-ruled island”. Taiwan claims that China is actually a part of Taiwan for political reasons dating back to before Mao Tse Tung’s power grab. But it is actually the Taiwanese being cocky, as they are David in David and Goliath. Most likely the CCP aim to possess Taiwan’s and South Korea’s semiconductor industry. If they can achieve that, they will control at least three quarters of the semiconductor market around the world and they would have a great bargaining chip for the future. Or if they prefer they could beat the living daylight out of the US and Europe. In particular, it would mean that they won’t have to gather military strength in the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf, which isn’t in the cards for the CCP since they don’t have the reach with Naval forces right now. It doesn’t even appear as if they are aiming for that capacity at all. And therein lies the proof of their strategic goals. They are not going to stop with just invading Taiwan.

That is why Taiwan and Japan are forging a close alliance with economic implications as well as political implications. Taiwan as a country was like several other countries in east Asia occupied by Japan in World War II. But there was little internal resistance to the occupation. Taiwan probably had the most collaborators of any Japanese occupied territory in East Asia at the time. This mirrored the friendly relationship with Japan.

The gigantic Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer TSMC is planning to open up a division in Japan in 2023, to supply SONY with semiconductors. This is a giveaway which can only lead us to the conclusion that Japan is not to be duped. They know that Taiwan is so much more to the Chinese than just an incentive to retake a lost territory. Albeit, China has continuosly been sending the message to the US that their butt hurts, because it suits their agenda.

Japan is reportedly building a military base on the Japanese island of Ishigaki which is located less than 140 miles from Taiwan. What kind of base remains to be disclosed, but Japan will deploy both anti-ship missiles and air-defense missiles between the end of 2022 and March 2023. There are only three beach strips in taiwan that the Chinese military force PLA can do a beach landing at. But they can airdrop airborn troops and materiel and fly in ’special forces’ with helicopters.

Japan has no other choice than to play hardball. The CCP in Beijing seeks to coerce the whole region into submission and gobble up the whole trade route to the Persian Gulf, India and Europe.

Japan is reported to remove Taiwan from China map in defense white paper. (TAIWAN NEWS)

In a warning to China, Japan’s new strategy paper mentions Taiwan for the first time. (FORBES)

Japan’s depute defense minister says ’Taiwan must be protected as a democratic country’ (CNN)

Sources:

Hanoi 2.0 – the total withdrawal

Already Hillary Clinton threw the glove too early at China when she wrote in November 2011; ”When the war in Iraq ends and the US withdraws from Afghanistan, the United States faces a turning point in the US Pacific Ocean.” Hillary Clinton revealed the US plans which could be interpreted as the United States doing as they please and that no morality is necessary to apply to any emerging situation for the US to take the right to intervene in any part of the world.

Trump was the president who almost completed the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Obama was the president who started the withdrawal. What we see is not the result of left-right politics, what we see is the result of an ”America first” policy, which almost all politicians in the United States agree on. Everyone knew that they would withdraw. But if they had taken their time with a sequential withdrawal, it would not have been any better, as far as I can see. Because then the soldiers who remained would have been slaughtered, or at least the risk of that happening would be significant. I mostly object to that the United States and Biden did not warn their allies about the withdrawal. The reason was probably that they did not want to alert the Taliban about the American withdrawal. The US administration had to choose between pulling off the patch quick or slow. I always pull off my patches quickly because it’s milder that way.

The withdrawal came now, because Biden is aiming for a war against Iran via mainly Syria and on Syrian soil first, as also Trump had set his mind on. Trump certainly reduced the troops in Afghanistan from 15,000 to an absolute minimum of 2,500 men. There was only one last remnant of American troops left to bring home for Biden. Plus, the US militarily allied (what a joke) countries’ military forces briefly remained in the country. Several of the allied countries were completely unprepared for the sudden withdrawal by the United States. But American lives must be secured in their own war against the Taliban. It is not optimal to attack Iran with ground forces deployed on Afghan territory.

The United States is not primarily out to ”steal” the Iranian oil. They are trying to prevent a total Chinese hegemony in the Persian Gulf, because the United States needs the oil from the Persian Gulf. China does more business in the Persian Gulf than any other country, and even Saudi-Arabia has committed itself more economically to China than to the United States. But Saudi-Arabia’s US military technology are not necessarily compatible with Chinese military technology. Saudi-Arabia is not likely starting over and instead buying Chinese military technology. Except for maybe drones and some other, less advanced technology then. The United States gets at least a third of its oil from the Persian Gulf and has probably always done so. The fracking in Texas was just a staged scenery, in the regard that they have a very limited amount of oil reserves left. Maybe the gasoline oil in Texas will be sufficient until 2024 if it is to supply the entire United States.

It did not take long before some hawk in Israel acted on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. because a war against Iran led by the United States, Israel wants and has wanted ever since Trump’s term as president and the Netanyahu era. It makes me suspect that Israel does not have its own strategic nuclear weapons after all.

“Artificially intelligent Israeli-made drones securing UAE oil fields” Headline; WIN August 17, 2021

“Bennett to discuss Iranian threat with Biden in Washington” Headline; WIN August 18, 2021

More puzzle pieces that confirm an impending war will surely follow.

If there comes another big war in the pacific, I hope for the US to win. If there comes a war in Syria to continue in Iran to counter the Chinese influence in the Persian Gulf, I am not so certain I want the US to win.

Sources:

Mimers brunn

World Israel News (WIN)

Merkel visiting the White House for the last time

On Thursday, July 15, 2021, a US president received German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the last time in the White House and, not surprisingly, the meeting was partly about the Nordstream II gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.

“We have reached different conclusions about what the project entails,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after the meeting.

Joe Biden nevertheless pointed out that they agree upon that Russia will not be allowed to use the gas pipeline as a way of exerting pressure on neighboring countries.

Source; Sveriges radio

Oh, how sweet. Biden and Merkel sitting in a tree, K-I-S-S-I-N-G. What does their statements mean then? I can tell you what it does not imply. This does not mean that the project will end, and it does not mean that Biden has not given the Nordstream II project its blessing.

”… What the project entails.” What does it tell us? Probably that the project will be realized and one should not discuss the realization of the project, but only what the project entails for the two concerned, Germany and the US.

And ”Russia will not be allowed to use the gas pipeline as a means of exerting pressure on neighboring countries.” Does that mean that the project will be realized then?

This means that Merkel passes to Biden, who passes back to Merkel who scooooores!!!! The course is fixed and the war against Iran will continue to be pursued. Syria is the country where Boots on the Ground will take place. Kremlin is kept happy so that Russia will not use its air base in Latakia and its naval base in Tartous to attack US forces during the vulnerable and delicate initial phase, or otherwise will not disrupt the process and thereby spoiling the US opening move. As an icing on the cake, Russia can, with mild coerciveness, put pressure on Assad not to intervene against the Americans when they arrive.

Sure enough, a treaty over the gas pipeline is close, according to a Sveriges radio article July 20, 2021. But to be honest, one of the reasons for this Merkel-Biden agreement can also have something to do with growing and overt neo-nazi movements in Germany making Germany destined for Hell. But it is not the only or the main reason from Biden’s perspective.

The German-American companionship that began with some sort of ’declarations of love’ between George W. Bush and Angela Merkel some day when Merkel was in the United States beforehand, is also possibly the reason why Russia more or less simultaneously with Merkel’s US visit threatened the Taliban, i.e. Afghanistan, with a beating. Sveriges radio commented on this in July 14, 2021, saying, quote;

”Russia warns the Taliban of threatening the security of its allies in Central Asia. The announcement comes after a delegation visited Moscow last week. The Russian Foreign Ministry also calls on the Taliban to start negotiations to create a transitional government before it is too late.” End quote.

Four days later there was another quote;

”The Taliban’s advance in Afghanistan could leave room for China while the United States withdraws from the region. During the week, China offered to take on the role as a new mediator in Afghanistan.” End quotes; Sveriges radio

This Merkel visit to the United States and what they talked about there is possibly also the reason why Russia simultaneously with the visit, leaked information that Putin was plotting to get Donald Trump elected through what is known as the Russiagate. Listen to the choice of words in the presentation of the leaked Russian information from the Kremlin to the newspaper The Guardian;

“Putin had a plot to put Trump in the White House.”

Does that mean Putin is on his way out? Or is it the journalists’ own interpretations of the information they received, that Putin himself (but apparently not the Kremlin) plotted to get Donald Trump elected?

Deutsche Welle published a video in which George W. Bush was interviewed after Merkel’s visit to the former president. The video has the title; ’She did what’s best for Germany’ – George W. Bush on Angela Merkel’s legacy.

Probably she did. But how it rained in Germany! Is she not a Christian? You’d think that she would make a conclusion from this coincidence, as a Christian. Apparently she is not a very good Christian.

With regard to the heavy rainfall and flooding in Germany in mid July 2021. It should be interesting to see how well the Germans will be able to negotiate with Ukraine over the purchase of grains, crops and potatoes considering the Germans’ well known ambitions to enforce the Nordstream II pipeline in the Baltic Sea. That might not end too well my German friends. Well, there is always Poland. Nordstream II is extremely unfavorable to the Ukrainians because the Russians can bypass gas that otherwise would have run through Ukrainian gas pipelines to above all Germany. To do like the Germans do and cut Ukraine out of any strategic leverage as a nation, leaves Ukraine in a seriously dangerous position. Now Germany might reap what they sowed.

Added note:

[Simultaneously with Merkel’s visit to the United States, the western and south-western parts of Germany were drowned in up to three-meter-high rivers of rain, killing hundreds of people. It happens to be the worst in the industrialized Ruhr area around the river Rhine, where rainfall always gathers to. This will probably affect us Swedes economically in the short run and many, many other nations too. Roger’s note]

Roger M. Klang

This lesson is further updated

Sources:

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/merkel-i-vita-huset-for-sista-gangen

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/avtal-nara-om-nord-stream-2

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/ryssland-varnar-talibanerna

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/kina-kan-utnyttja-talibanernas-frammarsch

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/stigande-dodsstal-efter-oversvamningarna-183-bekraftat-omkomna

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/stora-ekonomiska-effekter-av-oversvamningarna

Biden’s new strategy

It seems that Biden will follow in Trump’s footsteps and continue to oust Sweden. Biden has thus made an active choice. They can no longer excuse themselves for not having any control over their wicked fellow countrymen. Biden can no longer pretend to be ignorant or pretend that he can do nothing about what is happening. Biden did not want to share with us. Biden, on the other hand, wants to share with the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Israel. Shared power is double power. It is an active choice that Biden and his predecessors have made. In March 2021, Biden invited 40 world leaders to a summit, and he included the prime ministers of Denmark and Norway, but not Sweden’s prime minister. The summit topics were officially about climate change and measures to rectify it, and Covid 19. In reality, the summit was about energy and alliances, ”who is in and who is out”. But then the participants are also required to be able to read between the lines. Saying things straight in plain words is far too hazardous for a world leader.

Stefan Löfven’s press secretary announced in the newspaper Expressen, that questions about the invitation list are referred to the US administration and that it is still too early to say whether Sweden will ”conspire with” neighboring countries before the meeting. Quote; fPlus, March 28, 2021

Conspiring with means teaching our less initiated neighboring states.

In fact, I’m extremely relieved to no longer have to worry about helping the giant babies in the United States presidential administration. Biden, the old 60’s racist, is hoping for an American Saudi Arabia where the Americans have full control over their women. He will get a Brazil.

The stranding of the Panama-registered Japanese ship Evergreen Ever Given in the Suez Canal on March 23, 2021 led to delays. Ever Given is a long-term leased container-ship to the Taiwanese shipping company Evergreen Marine, and at the time of the accident the ship had an Indian crew. The ship is 400 meters long and that makes it one of the world’s largest ships. The oil from the Persian Gulf, the oil that goes to the East Coast of the United States, passes through the Suez Canal. It would take about 1+ months extra time to round South Africa and it is not certain that the tankers and container vessels have fuel tanks with fuel that is enough for a month extra travel time without refueling fuel oil somewhere in West Africa. Ever Given was stuck in the Suez Canal for barely a week, until March 29, 2021.

But what does Biden’s announced withdrawal of e.g. at least three Patriot batteries, and more or less permanently stationed aircraft carriers, from the Persian Gulf mean?

The aircraft carrier called Nimitz, which is also the first aircraft carrier in the Nimitz class, was on assignment for almost a full year without rotation or leave for the staff, and without any ship maintenance that could not be accomplished on board, until very recently when Nimitz was called home. Nimitz is expected to retire soon, and it is very costly to dismantle and scrap the nuclear reactor on board. Scrapping Nimitz will cost billions of dollars. If you have to risk one of the aircraft carriers, in the Persian Gulf, when provoking Iran, it is the Nimitz. The aircraft carrier Nimitz has been in active service since 1975 when Gerald Ford was president.

Does Biden’s announcement mean tha

  • the oil infrastructure is now built and ready in Uganda and the region surrounding Lake Victoria, and that the expected oil is now flowing, that it is flowing to the United States and that the oil has been proven to be gasoline oil of West Texas Intermediate comparable quality?

Or does Biden’s announcement mean that

  • Iran is not taking the bait of war, time to rethink.

If so, what role will Israel and Syria play in the new game? Will the Iranians dare to expand their influence in Syria? Will they take the new bait and will the future war take place in Syria? What role will Russia then play, given the Russian bases on the Syrian coast at the Mediterranean in Latakia and Tartous. What role will Turkey play?

What does this mean for us here in Sweden?

  • Does it mean that the Biden administration will use the UK, France and Germany to ease sanctions on Russia, so that Russia will cooperate in Syria. For example by closing its eyes to Gazprom’s/Nordstream’s gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea. A kind of barter.

Or does it mean that

  • the Biden administration is open to the possibility of shifting the event horizon northwards, thereby shifting the US pivotal from roughly the Indian Ocean towards the northern parts of Russia, by focusing on Syria and Israel rather than the Persian Gulf, thereby hitting two birds with one stone, while at the same time being able to assure its allies in NATO support and/or protection?

Given China’s ambitions in the Persian Gulf, what are the short-term and long-term risks of this? In the short term, this probably means no major military risks for the United States, which would not be to the United States fortune, as China lacks an expeditionary fleet and army and only has two aircraft carriers. Albeit, they can use these two aircraft carriers more efficiently because they can be more ruthless to the crews long-term. But the necessity of overhauls of aircraft carriers and a dependence on bases and friendly ports are still major factors.

In the long run, China will strengthen its economic oil situation in the Persian Gulf if the United States partially withdraws militarily. But maybe China would have succeeded with that anyway. They have so far. Practically every state in the Persian Gulf, including Saudi-Arabia, do more business with China than they do with the US. Perhaps China will also strengthen its position militarily if it is allowed to build air bases in Iran. But then they will probably have to invest in large scale infrastructure projects and production of aeronautical components in Iran. So the solution of partially withdrawing from the Persian Gulf is not optimal, and Biden would not have gone so far if he had had an alternative. But Iran, through its Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, actually made an agreement with China already in March-April 2021, through China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi. As usual, Mohammad Javad Zarif taunted the Americans during the photo shoot of the two dignitaries.

So timely then that Iran’s air force is like a garment of sackcloth and ashes, from the time of the Shah. According to the New York Times, the parties decided on a Chinese investment of 400 billion US Dollars in Iran over a period of 25 years. However, it can become problematic because the deal was apparently settled in US Dollars and not in Chinese Yuan.

China also recently signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with Saudi Arabia. But it is probably just a manifestation of economic opportunism, on the part of Saudi Arabia.

For the United States, it is important to first and foremost involve the four Arab countries below and win them over on their side, while Israel is guaranteed to stay safe. Before Trump, people thought this would be an impossibility. But the Arabs think like Trump and understood him, and they connected with the former president. The four countries that first Trump and now Biden are trying to get onboard the ship are;

1. Syria

2. Jordan

3. Saudi Arabia

4. Iraq

The rest of the Persian Gulf countries they hope will follow suit. If there is no war against Iran, all the better. Only as long as the Iranians fall in line.

If there’s going to be a war, it’s not Joe Biden’s fault, it’s Donald Trump who put his foot in his mouth fault. His for the public covert war-mongering against Iran has led to the situation Biden is in now. Trump did not step on with woolen socks exactly, so the Iranians could hear the war thunder approaching and they also understand in general terms why Trump sought war with them. However, they probably do not understand that the United States is doing well without Iranian oil, they do not understand the bigger picture very well. The Iranians conclude that Iranian oil means war, they mistakenly believe that the United States is out to steal their oil and that is all there is to it.

Associated Press, Dec. 8, 2020:

”As the Pentagon pulls troops out of the Middle East in the coming weeks, under orders from President Donald Trump, U.S. military leaders are working to find other ways to deter potential attacks by Iran and its proxies and to counter arguments that America is abandoning the region./…/
   The Pentagon announced last month that the U.S. will reduce troop levels in Iraq and Afghanistan by mid-January, asserting that the decision fulfills Trump’s pledge to bring forces home from America’s long wars. Under the accelerated pullout, the U.S. will cut the number of troops in Afghanistan from more than 4,500 to 2,500, and in Iraq from about 3,000 to 2,500.”

Why pull out from Iraq and Afghanistan if they want a war? Because it is not optimal to wage a war against neighboring Iran from inside of Afghanistan. And they need to build up much larger forces in Iraq than they already have in Iraq. This takes time and is revealing and risky. It is much more optimal for the US to deploy their forces from the Mediterranean area, if and only if they can get Russia to go along with it.

It is not thankful to be the 46th president of the United States and take office after Trump. Biden has basically no choice. It seems like it’s time for a new US war president. Or what do you think?

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, said in June 2021 that ”it remains unclear whether Iran will comply with nuclear deal”.

“We’re not even at the stage of returning to compliance for compliance,” Blinken said. “We don’t know if that’s actually going to happen. We’ve been engaged in indirect conversations, as you know, for the last couple of months, and it remains unclear whether Iran is willing and prepared to do what it needs to do to come back into compliance. So we’re still testing that proposition.”

Wow, they are not even at the stage of returning to compliance for compliance. That is like saying; ”We haven’t yet been in contact with a Kennel to make our dog understand who’s the boss.” Remember POTUS George W. Bush’s talk of weapons of mass destruction prior to the Gulf War? Anyone?

But this time it is probable that there are attempts to make weapons of mass destruction. Iran is trying to produce sufficiently enriched Uranium for use in missile warheads, and they have developed long range missiles.

By reading the article in The Algemeiner by Benjamin Kerstein, one can ascertain that the course to war is straight and the ’Fog of war’ is thick. War against Iran via the Mediterranean and Syria et.c. in the first place, the Persian Gulf in the second. Israel has a crisis of confidence in the United States, but Biden, Blinken and the United States are trying to make Israel understand that the course is fixed and that only the methods have changed back to the pre-Trump era methods.

Also, it is very interesting how one after another Iranian Naval vessels in the Persian Gulf catches fire and gets disabled or sinks, as reported by Israeli media in an error-prone manner. The latest reported and most noteworthy incident is from June 2nd 2021 when Iran’s largest Naval ship dubbed Kharg caught fire and sunk. However could a Naval ship sink from a fire onboard if there is no hole in its hull? Why would you even report it as if a fire caused the ship to sink? They are not idiots the Israelis you know. They ended one news report with the words;

”…One thing remains clear. Sailing in the region can be very hazardous.., for the wrong ship!”

The narrator emphasizing the words ”for the wrong ship”. They were also asiduous in pointing out the Iranians involvement in previous hostile mine operations in the Persian Gulf. So the Iranians are just reaping what they sowed. But it almost feels like if the Israeli media are hiding the true scope of this string of disasters, and Israels involvement in making it happen.

Roger M. Klang

Sources:

Quote; fPlus March 28, 2021

World Israel News, March 30, 2021

The Algemeiner, June 2021