It is an intriguing question nobody has asked. I am going to give you my analysis on this subject. The cutting of the cables happened in early March 2024. Let us start with the biggest players and work our way down. But you need to remember that sometimes it is the smaller or regional nations engaged in a certain conflict who commit such precarious acts, since it is often their only means of turning the world rudder in their favor. Albeit you cannot rule out US involvement. However, if I may start speculating on which countries stand to gain from the cutting of three Red Sea fiber-optic internet cables, I at least don’t think the act was committed by any Chinese state institution. China has the least to gain from cutting the fiber-optic cables. As a matter of fact, they have everything to lose from it. And since it was the Chinese themself that buried most of the cables, if not all, underneath the Red Sea, they would know the exact location of all the cables. Most of the cables in the Red Sea weren’t cut. Ok, so what, you might say. It could have been a signal of warning to the EU or the US by the Chinese. No, it doesn’t work that way, I say. It is equally stupid as to accuse the Russians of the demolition of the North Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea, like some people did after the underwater explosions in September 2022. They were the ones building at least part of the infrastructure in the first place, and they built it for a purpose, and that purpose wasn’t to demolish the pipelines as soon as they were confronted with some initial difficulties. Trust me, it wasn’t the Chinese who cut the fiber-optic cables in the Red Sea any more than it was the Russians who demolished the Nord-Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Follow the money!
But since we are investigating the matter, we should look at the US for a minute. They at least stand to gain from a signal of warning to the Chinese by cutting 20 percent of the cables, as happened. Four out of 20 cables were cut, disrupting 25 percent of data traffic between Asia and Europe. Again, follow the money.
What about Russia then? Russia stands to gain from it – if the Kremlin can unnoticed get away with cutting the cables. Russia gains on it because it shifts the CCPs focus from the Pacific region and the Russian Far East to the European region and possibly to the Middle East and Africa.
Ukraine stands to gain on it because of China. And Ukraine stands to lose from it because of China. Ukraine wins on it because Beijing’s interest in a stable and peaceful Northern Europe will be increasing, although it is speculative. Ukraine loses because even though the bulk of Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine presumably are from Russia’s Far East, Russia’s grip on its Far East and South borders will automatically get bolstered as China refocuses. This will undoubtedly result in a greater Russian ability to bolster their own war efforts against Ukraine.
Could it be a European Union nation? I seriously doubt it. Europe, albeit having many issues, is the logical reason in the world.
Neither could it be India, or at least India won’t gain any strategic security from it. And why would they cut their internet connection to Europe on which they are so, so dependent on, the – Europe India Gateway? They’d rather not cut anything.
But Iran is another matter altogether. They stand everything to gain short term from it as China will refocus their efforts so that it to a greater extent encompasses the Persian Gulf and reaches the Red Sea. Only thing is that China has got a mere three aircraft carriers in total and not all of them can be operational at the same time. So, it would be a pretty desperate measure taken by the Iranians. Especially since it would only constitute a short-term solution for the Iranians, and thereafter China will lose more influence than necessary, mid-term. Except the Mullahs are in a pretty dire mess right now and would really like to get a break. Meantime, Biden needs to win the 2024 election. Republicans can’t get their heads out of their asses or Trump’s ass for that matter. From the Iranians’ perspective it doesn’t matter who wins the US election, they think they will be attacked anyway. And they probably will get attacked anyway. It’s just that the Republican side will be blatantly overt with their war plans, and they will not necessarily require any solid casus belli. Like the imperialistic Roman Emperors. Again, follow the money, which in the Roman empire equaled silk, but today equals oil. The Romans could go without silk clothes. But the Americans can’t go without oil.
As for Israel. It does serve Israel’s interest to sever the cables. They want to reshape their former alliance with the US. Biden is very sick of Netanyahu. The situation is threatening to create a multifront war in Israel without the US on Israel’s side, and the only way for Netanyahu to get back on track is to help the coming US war, against Iranian proxy forces and Iran but ultimately and undesirably against China, on the way. And Netanyahu may do so by severing several optical cables in the Red Sea. It is within Israel’s strategic grip too.
What about the Houthis in Yemen? Highly speculative. The Houthis deny they were behind it. If they had been they would have said so. The Muslims are pretty straight forward.
The four cables were: Seacom; TGN-Gulf; Asia-Africa-Europe 1; and Europe India Gateway. The cables may have been bundled together and it could therefore have been a freak accident. What speaks for this theory is that the four cables connect different regions in the world. It is the probable approach to spread the risks that you don’t bundle together cables intended for the same region in one and the same bundle. But if they were bundled together, they seem to have been severed at the strait of Bab El-Mandeb in the southern mouth to the Red Sea. There can’t be much sea traffic going East to West or vice versa there. And why would you anchor smack in the middle of one of the busiest, narrowest, and most heavily trafficked straits in the world?
You know, in the late nineteenth century and the beginning of the twentieth century on-shore oil-drilling didn’t require extracting the oil by pumping it up, the oil came shooting up from the ground as the drills broke the barrier to the wells. This wasn’t the desired result, but it was a reality. In the latter half of the twentieth century, you needed to pump the oil up from the oil wells. Today, in America, you most often need to resort to fracking to be able to pump the last oil up from the ground. This requires that you first pump down toxic chemicals into the ground. They don’t desire that either, but it is a reality. There is nothing the Republicans want more than royal monopoly on the oil from the Persian Gulf and elsewhere. Not to mention other resources. And the becoming King is Donald Trump. The return of the king. Try Gollum! That is the nice choice of character equivalent, from the Lord of the Rings.
And the sources for this were:
SR:Ekot
Fortune,
and
Al Jazeera
My name is Roger Klang
Thank you and see you later alligator, at a while crocodile!
https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/undervattenskablar-i-roda-havet-har-gatt-av
https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/cecilia-udden-usa-ser-netanyahu-som-ett-hinder
https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/kina-fortsatter-att-rusta-upp-militaren-beredskap-for-krig
The strategist cowboy 