Mowing the lawn. Lesson nine

Exactly how is Trump going to make America great again? He does not lead through example, that is for sure. What do I mean with that? Well he said that America in the past has been stupid to tell the world what their country’s intentions were.

If you do not take responsibility for what your intentions are, if you do not tell the people what your intentions as a state and as a state leader are, then per definition you cannot lead through example because your people do not have a clue what your intentions are. Ergo, there is no example to follow. Do you see what I mean?

But I lead through example! I tell the world what I intend to do and then I do it. Even a guy like Putin does that. Even Hitler did that. But not Trump, and he is proud of not doing it. Donald, if you are not leading through example you are not leading! And if you are not leading, then you cannot make America great again. It is as simple as that.

I think that every lie and deception springs out of a personal perversion or at least a leniency for a perversion. All the lyings by the so called statesmen of the world is only a cover-up for their personal perversions. Of course there is only one totally perversion free person in history, Jesus Christ. But the lies that come from some persons are much worse than the average liars lies. And when that person is in office it gets bad. If you are in a clinch with and then surrender to Trump, he will screw you over a thousand times if he could make a dime on it. On the other hand if you don’t surrender to Trump he may screw you over anyway, but at least you are standing up. The man has got no honor. He is like emperor Nero. If you are standing up and looking down on his bald spot, he will have you executed. It may be just a tall tale, but watch the figurative similarities, considering both Trump’s and Nero’s decadence.

There are three kinds of world leaders today and always have been. The first kind is someone like Donald Trump who in foreign policy says one thing and does another thing, sometimes simultaneously. This kind of leader consistently shuffle the cards before they are dealt. The second kind of leaders are like Vladimir Putin and Adolf Hitler. They say what they intend to do and then they do it. But what they do is not God’s will. The third kind of leaders also mediate what they intend to do and then they do it. But what they do is God’s will. The third kind of leaders are rarely existing in the world. And that is remarkable, that good people, of which there are plenty of among ordinary people, apparently finds it hard to make it to the top wherever you have your residence in the world. It makes me wonder what tools successful politicians in general use to make it to the top, and also how they stay in office?

Donald Trump wrote this in his book ”Crippled America” from 2015; ”Does anybody reading this believe that I’m concerned about making other countries feel good? They used to fear us. They used to want to be us. We were respected.”

Thank you for that clarity, businessman Donald! That doesn’t sound like a good business investment. It shows you cannot be trusted, by non-Americans, ever. If you cannot be trusted, who in their right mind, can you strike a deal with outside of America? I can answer the question myself – the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Israel. All others have to prepare for the worst from totalitarian regional or global powers like Russia and China. Unless God intervenes, and strikes a blow to America for embarking on the wrong road, perhaps. We have put a lot of money and some casualties into your country’s war with the Talibans in Afghanistan. For what?

Homework:

No homework today. But you women, please speak up about where you stand on Trump. I don’t care if you are for him or against him, just speak up. I value your voice. I hope you valued mine.

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

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The American base in Darwin, Australia Lesson eight

There are around 800 American bases deployed around the World. But many of these locations have only minor staff and many are logistic to its nature, and most staffmembers are desktop workers and pencil pushers. However the Americans have quite a few fighting military bases around the World.

The US has got several well integrated installations in Australia. Pine Gap is the commonly used name for an Australian Earth station approximately 18 kilometres i.e. 11 miles South-West of the town of Alice Springs, Northern Territory in the centre of Australia. Pine Gap is operated by both Australia and the United States. Its longer name is Joint Defence Facility Pine Gap (JDFPG). It consists mainly of desktop workers.

But there is another American base in Australia. This American base in Australia I think we have to shed light on. The base as such, wich is located in Darwin at Australia’s North-West coast, does not give you any information of how many Marines Darwin can harbor. Darwin’s port can take in at least one WASP-class vessel. Darwin is a quite small Community, a city but not a big city by American standards, only about 130,000 inhabitants. More about Darwin further down.

If you bring the American troops home the World will be overrun by the Chinese and the Russians in no time, and the US is still dependent on oil from the Middle East to a level of more than a quarter of its oil-consumption (2016). The US would get none oil if the Chinese had their will. The US can hope for and plot for a regime change in Venezuela to create a boost in oil-production in that particular country in order to increase oil imports from that country to the US if the new regime is friendly to the US. Venezuela has one of the largest oil reserves in the world. And Canada has lots of extra oil that they export mainly to the US.

I think that China is too weak in its nuclear capacity to survive a war with the US. China relies on Russia’s nuclear capacity and Russia relies on China’s conventional army. They have a marriage of reasoning. But believe this, they do not trust each other!

Kremlin thinks that Russia should be in par with China since Russia has a bigger nuclear capacity. But China’s bigger economy wins in the every day life. Russia is slowly losing its grip of the Russian Far East to the Chinese. That among other things is why Putin has agreed to develop his nation’s economic ties with Japan, sell some oil to the Japanese to level out the Chinese influence in the Russian Far East. Putin doesn’t want to put all his eggs in one and the same basket, namely China.

Russia’s biggest motivator is China. Russia’s little escapades in the Baltic Sea are a luxury they sometimes can engage in. Its Southern borders and its Eastern border are much more important. They just don’t want us to know that. However Russia is strongly enforcing development economically and militarily in the region of the Kola peninsula at Barents Sea in their North.

Does China have a bad geographic location in case of a conventional war with the US? Not necessarily. America can to my knowledge only accommodate some three thousand marines in total in barracks located at the relatively small community of Darwin in the North of Australia fairly close to the Malacca strait. And even this small number puts a strain on Darwin’s community (you know, unmarried girls). And the port of Darwin is quite limited. LPD:s and LHD:s like San Antonio class or Wasp class visiting Darwin can only do this one by one it seems. Also, Darwin was attacked by air by the Japanese in World war two. Wouldn’t we see a rerun, and this time the crime would be committed by the Chinese? It is true, Obama talked about shipping 25 000 marines to Darwin. Yeah, good luck! They would have to close Darwin down when all the young girls have left for America. As if the Darwiners aren’t pissed off enough as it is. Probably.

Homework:

As we have established in my ”Strategic school introduction” and in an earlier Lesson one ”The importance of Uganda in big politics”, the Americans fear a possible axis between China, Russia and Japan.

1. Do you see a growing axis between China, Russia and Japan?
2. How will that play out you think?
3. Will the US be left in the wake of a new world order?
4. Are the Americans rational in their fear or is Japan going to continue to be benevolent towards the US of A?

Search for information on the Internet for this task! For example you can search for ”Putin, Russian Far East, China, Shinzo Abe, Japan” and then maybe you will get some relevant information.

Roger M. Klang, defense political Spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

Strait of Hormuz Lesson seven

Fact evidence: In late October 2018, Israels prime minister Netanyahu visited Oman under friendly terms. Not long after, following this, Trump said that ”Saudi-Arabia is on the clock”. Unfortunately I can no longer find the source to the Saudi-Arabia-is-on-the-clock statement, but I distinctly remember it word for word.

Very interesting. But I don’t expect that Oman will cave in to Israel! Israelis cannot project the necessary power in the Strait of Hormuz region to be able to do that. If Oman will cave in they will do it because the guy in the background is putting pressure on the country. I am of course talking about Trump.

And speaking about Saudi-Arabia. The United States is starting to export more goods than they receive oil in the other direction. The amount of oil the US receive from Saudi-Arabia 2018 is down 1/3 since 2015 while the exports to the country stays the same. So you probably have to look for the explanation there. The US has no interest in sustaining the state of Saudi-Arabia if they don’t get to import their oil. The numbers 1/3 comes from the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2015 compared with the numbers in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019.

The Strait of Hormuz is 21 nautical miles (39 km) in width at its narrowest place. In 2011 an average of 14 tankers per day passed out of the Persian Gulf through the strait, carrying 17 million barrels of crude oil. That is 35 percent of the worlds seaborn oil shipments and 20 percent of the oil traded worldwide. Some say 40 percent of all oil traded worldwide. More than 85 percent of this oil goes to Asian countries, with Japan, India, South Korea and China the biggest buyers. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz throughout the years.

This doesn’t mean that Saudi-Arabia will become a target militarily. It is much more likely that Iran will become a target. But I think we can expect that the US will strive to put pressure on especially the Saudis to not cut back any more on the oil sales to the US and preferrably increase the oil sales quota to the US. They hope to accomplish this by projecting more power against the Iranians and by dwarfing the Chinese influence in the nearby region and, hopefully, in the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. They attempt all of this nowadays with the projection of military power rather than with conventions, national aid and business agreements which previous political administrations may have relied on more.

This dwarfing of the chinese Navy in the Gulf of Oman can be done by confining the Chinese Navy within the South China Sea. As long as America has the ability to project power at sea more than China has, the US can decide the rules of the game. But the difference between the streangth of the American Navy and the Chinese Navy on the other hand, is more than anything revolving around America’s Aircraft carrier groups superiority in number and capacity that dwarf the Chinese number and capacity.

China has an airbase at Gwadar in western Pakistan near by the Gulf of Oman. If China can continue on with a construction of new airbases in foreign countries in and around the region, then America’s superiority with their aircraft carrier groups will be leveled out in actual capacity compared to the Chinese. But the USAF currently has airbases in several Arab countries on the west coast of the Persian Gulf opposite Iran.

Should Iran allow China to construct airbases in their country, then the Chinese could place these airbases wisely, meaning more optimal for defense of Iranian oil-installations and self-defense than the Americans can do and have done. As a bonus the Chinese airbases would be more suitable for attacks against to Iran possibly hostile oil-nations in the north and west of the Persian Gulf.

Homework:

1. Trump said that ”Saudi-Arabia is on the clock”. Can you think of any scenarios if the Saudis don’t comply with America? What will happen in the region you think?
2. Do you think that in the long run Iran will gain influence or that they will lose influence should the US threaten with war and then abstain from realize it? And if Iran gain influence, will there be a war? Will there be a war if Iran dwindle in power and there is a real threat of a serious upheaval in Iran?
3. For the overambitious; How do you think that China if possible will try to profit from these different scenarios, given the tense situation in the South China Sea? Pick one scenario that you think is the most realistic and suggest China’s politics:

• Saudis don’t comply.
• Saudis don’t comply and Iran gain influence in the region.
• Saudis don’t comply and Iran lose influence because of US war rattling.
• Saudis don’t comply while civil unrest in Iran.

Roger M. Klang, defense political Spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

 

Why Germany cannot repeat its WWII performance Lesson six

This is why Germany cannot repeat the performance of dominating its surrounding world like Nazi-Germany did approximately 1935-1944. Lesson six;

Peak oil has long since occurred in Ploiesti, Romania, where the Germans got most of their oil during World War II.

Lend-Lease. The Allied Lend-Lease to the Soviet Union which made the Soviet Union superior to Nazi-Germany in materiel and also economically during most of World War II. Supplies and military equipment were shipped in convoys around Nordkap in Norway to Murmansk and Archangels. Supplies and military equipment were also shipped from the US to Vladivostok in southeastern Russia with Soviet flagged ships. A Persian Corridor was also available to support the Soviet Union.

From the East, however, there will never be any Lend-Lease going to the western countries. The Germans’ interest in expanding their borders westward is minimal.

Moscow seems to be just the right distance from western Europe to keep Russia from defeat, seen in a historical perspective. Since then that distance has increased. Circumstances may have altered with the development of new materiel like long distance weapons and satellite sensors.

Italy and Spain are no longer fascist states.

Hypothetical German hopes of securing a future fuel supply (and they also, among other things, need a Chrome supply transported by railways westward from Turkey) by taking the oil fields in the Caucasus at Baku and the Caspian sea are vane. Perhaps some Germans hope, as they did in Nazi-Germany with oil from Romania, to seize the oil fields at Caucasus and subsequently load the fuel on barges that can traffic the Danube River. But importing oil from North Africa through the straits in western Turkey and up into the Danube River is certainly seen as an alternative for Germany.

Germany buys an unknown percentual proportion of its oil from Russia, and they buy a lot of gas, gas that runs through the Nordstream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. They have tied theirselves quite a bit to Russia’s supplies of gas and oil to Germany.

Germany can extract liquid fuel from their oil shale and lignite coal, but not nearly enough for the German logistics chain, the motorized army and the air force.

I have put together a 35-point axiom, which can be used to determine a possible outcome in case of a major war. Of these 35 points, Nazi Germany had 17 crucial advantages against 6 for the Soviet Union, and yet Germany lost the war. My conclusion is that this is mostly due to the Soviet endurance through the Allies Lend-Lease, as well as the bombings of Germany including bombings against German-occupied/allied industrial areas and petroleum industries.

(Seventeen German advantages marked *)

1) have a better air force *
2) have a better or more extensive air defense *
3) are more thoroughly trained *
4) have logistic advantages *
5) have the right kind of materiel and equipment in the right amount and constellation, civilian as well as military *
6) have material quality advantages for heavier materiel *
7) have information, intelligence and surveillance advantages *
8) have technological communication advantages *
9) have better and more encryption variables *
10) have a superior leadership and educational doctrine *
11) have the opportunity to choose their battles and where they will take place *
12) have the best country climate *
13) have physically stronger, more sustainable soldiers (mainly concerns voluntary defense/professional soldiers) *
14) have better motivated soldiers *
15) have a better and more sustainable financial system *
16) have a better ability to quickly rebuild ruined industry and destroyed infrastructure (at least when the war looks like in WWII it’s a contest) *
17) have better infrastructure in their home country *

(Six Russian advantages marked ¤)

18) have a weather or season advantage during their warfare, or have weather-resistant clothing for their soldiers, cold-resistant equipment, functional food supplies and indoor accommodation opportunities in severe cold, etc. Deep snow can make transportation and transfer difficult for those who are not equipped and trained, deep mud is even worse, it may cause the most problem for an attacker.¤
19) have a bigger and faster production¤
20) gets financial and material help from the outside world¤
21) have access to oil and oil refineries and kerosene¤
22) have the most (ice free) commercial ports and access to safe shipping routs¤
23) have plenty of or appropriately placed fake targets so that the enemy’s surveillance and attack aircraft will correctly assess the location of the wrong target¤

(Twelve indeterminable or double acting/double edged)

24) are better equipped
25) are better protected and defended by, for example, mines and artillery in a defensive action and artillery during an offensive action
26) are more protected and harder to detect by using better camouflage
27) have better tools, e.g. have night vision devices as standard if you look at the situation today, or have electrolyte powder and potassium permanganate and antibiotics and low-cost performance enhancers, etc.
28) have advantages in terms of fire against targets
29) have better armor on combat vehicles with an advantage of better impact concerning fire against targets
30) have geographic advantages for either defense alt. an offensive (forest areas, steppes, transverse rivers etc.) ¤ *
31) In addition, the best long-range heavy-duty vehicles, adapted for the ground conditions and the accessibility of the offensive (compare with multiplied tactics) ¤ *
32) have a shorter production chain
33) have greater potential/ability to protect industry and infrastructure * ¤
34) have commodity assets within gripping distance ¤ *
35) have the most friendly minded neighboring states or least hostile neighbors

Nazi Germany had 17 of these above listed 35 possible advantages. Opposed are six advantages for Russia, and twelve indeterminable.

Perseverance is obviously such an important factor that it overrides all other factors if you can hold off a quick victory for the opposing side. How else can you explain a German loss even though the Germans had 17 advantages against 6 for the Soviet Union?

The shorter logistics chain (No. 4 above) may not be considered to be a German advantage. However, east Preussia had a partially strategic advantageous starting point at the start of the war, even though east Prussia lacked commodity resources. This advantage Preussia had because Stalin relocated parts of Russia’s industries from western Russia to the east of the Ural Mountains in the summer of 1941.

Another German advantage (not mentioned in the list above) was initially the surprise of the attacker. Although this is usually neutralized relatively quickly it wasn’t in this war. But a Russian advantage at a later stage was that they could maintain and even increase sufficient reinforcements and resources, which the Germans could not hope to maintain for their part.

The Germans can not count on making a reprisal of the overall plan for the daring attack through the Ardennes as in the attack on France in 1940.

Germany lacks nuclear weapon capacity while Russia, the United States, Great Britain and France all have it. But Germany can acquire it, hypothetically speaking.

Lastly, let me remind you that Germany’s constitution today explicitly prohibits Germany from entering into strategic defense alliances with non-NATO countries. For the protocol, I can say that I support this.

Homework:

No homework today

 

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

The Chinese Lap-system. Lesson five

What if the Russians invite the Chinese Navy to a unifying drill in the Baltic Sea and the Chinese airforce to a coordinated drill with its units in Kaliningrad Oblast and Luga?

The Chinese thereafter do the Russians job through a sneaky Trojan horse and occupy the big Swedish island of Gotland in the middle of the Baltic Sea, with limited forces. The Chinese Navy has already visited the Baltic Sea and Stockholm in september 2015 via the Danish Belt with a newly built missile equipped Destroyer, a Frigate and a support-ship. The Chinese Navy had a coordinated drill with Russia in the Baltic Sea in 2017.

Consider that it has happened subsequent to two earlier migration ages that the Huns (Asians) have made themselves homesteady in Europe, after beating the Ostrogoths from central Europe, only to disappear approximatly 80 years later just as sudden as they showed up. In the later period the Roman army in alliance with the Visigoths under the Goth and fieldmarshal, with the suspiciously Swedish-sounding name Alarik, beat the Huns.

The Chinese started up factory constructions in the strategicly located Kalmar on the mainland centered just west of the narrow Swedish Island of Öland in the Baltic Sea, with Chinese labour and talked big about one million Chinese migrating to Kalmar. That was foiled by good old fashioned Swedish Bureaucracy. Or maybe it was unintentionally, I really don’t know.

In the fall of 2013 the Icelandic government approved unified Icelandic, Norwegan and Chinese energy corporative efforts to explore possible oil existence on Iceland’s north coastal area. This was hardly done so that the Chinese could extract and import the potential oil all the long way to China as far as China is concerned. For the Chinese it is all about the Lap-system that they are building up in obscurity all the way from China to Malacca Strait to Sri Lanka to various African coastal countries to Iceland and/or Greenland and all the way into the Baltic Sea. The Chinese are going for world dominion.

 

Homework:

Why do you think that the Chinese Navy visited the Baltic Sea and Stockholm in 2015? Is this proof that the Chinese will not stop until they have accomplished world dominion? Or do you think that the idea of the Chinese seeking world dominion is paranoid? Consider the Chinese constructions and plans in Kalmar before you answer – ”paranoid” – cocksure.

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna värdepartiet) in Sweden

The end of all civilizations. Lesson three

I want to emphasize that when putting a point in a number followed by the word ”million” like this; 1.837 million, it means 1 837 000. When putting commas in a number like this; 1,602,205 it means that it is the full number 1 602 205, and it is not followed by the word ”million”.

In 2013 the United States extracted, in its country, amounts of oil equivalent to 60 percent of their nation’s oil consumption. America consumes 10 liters of oil per person and day. But in 2019 the United States oil reserve days are basically over, unless we account for oil that comes from shale and difficult-to-reach oil reserves. And you need to pump down toxic chemicals into the ground to be able to extract the shale oil. Moreover, the shale oil’s impact on the market is temporary. The 35 billion Texan barrels of oil in an area as big as Alabama will only supply America for a few years:

320,000,000 inhabitants consume 10 liters per person and day =
3,200,000,000 x 365 = 1,168,000,000,000 / 159 liters per barrel =
7,300,000,000 barrels in one year =
Maybe 5 years of consumption for the entire American people.

Texas consists largely of desert, but this desert has an ecosystem. I think Trump is in a propaganda war with the oil-producing countries that do not have to use chemicals to be able to pump up oil. He says that everything is well and he has said that the US would become self-sufficient in oil and even become a net exporter of oil. But what president wants to go down in history as the president who poisoned America’s environment and above all its sweat water sources to the extent we see today with the Fracking method, if there was high quality oil to be bought elsewhere for the US? This story is going to float up to the surface and haunt Trump for sure.

Trump writes in his book “Crippled America” from 2015, that researchers at (the small university) Rice University in Huston Texas have estimated that the US “can have” two trillion barrels of “recoverable oil” so that it will suffice for US consumption for 285 years. Firstly, if you calculate on 2 trillion barrels and the population of the United States in 2015, then the given number is incorrect. The correct number would be 270 years. I also do not believe in the estimation of “2 trillion barrels” because it would mean that the United States has got more oil reserves than the rest of the world put together. Quite much more. I think it is a joyish calculation, especially considering that the US has to make use of Fracking to such a great extent already today to pump up their oil. I think the US is experiencing its last oil boom, and at a great cost to their environment as well.

The CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019, which I trust more than I believe in Trump’s bombastic statements about America’s independence, shows that the United States 2016 imported most of the oil they consume from Canada, Venezuela, Saudi-Arabia and Iraq. But one must make an assessment based on comparison between states in the book and simple calculations. If the USA does not import oil but instead exports domestic oil, they have stepped up the Fracking extraction of oil with rocket speed in the past years since 2016. It now defacto appears as if the United States has so much oil that it will last forever and that it even can be exported because they have too much of the product, if anyone can have that. The United States, as the foremost player in the West and Saudi-Arabia as the leading player in the Middle East, is in a nerve war with each other about the oil price.

It seems like if acceptance of the Fracking method has increased in the US. They can destroy the Texan desert, because that eco-environment is not essential to the people of the United States. But judging from the pictures in a recently made French documentary film, the shale oil is at least partly extracted in fertile and inhabited areas in the Permian Basin area of Texas where most of the shale oil comes from.

A basin, just like the Permian Basin, is a place where the ground is lower than its surroundings. A basin can in nature be a very widestretched area ideal for vegetation. Water flows from the surroundings into many of the basins and that makes the basins fertile. Where there are green pastures and ample water reserves are also the same places where people tend to settle. And it is mostly in basins you can find oil. Consequently, the toxins used for the Fracking method, will contaminate the ground and the groundwater used by farmers and as drinking water by people and livestock.

15 million homes in the US get their water from private wells. That is 43.5 million people. 63 million Americans were exposed to unsafe drinking water in 2017, almost 1/5 of the population in the United States. Also, since people first settled in those basins many ideal spots for oil-drilling purposes are inhabited farmland and/or heavily populated city regions. The oil is often literally under the feet of the urban population. That’s what I mean wen I say difficult-to-reach oil reserves.

Pollution in the communities groundwater and in sweetwater lakes force many people to buy bottled water instead of drinking from the tap. A lot of extra energy consumption is thus created when large amounts of water has to be bottled and delivered from far away locations.

The numbers from the French 2018 documentary “The struggle for Oil” speak of 400 million barrels a year or 1.1 million barrels of oil extracted through Fracking in the United States per day. It does not make the United States self-sufficient, but 1.1 million barrels a day is equivalent to what the United States 2016 imported from Saudi-Arabia and Iraq together. It is about 1/7 of the total US oil imports. But the 1.1 million number is only 1/8 of the number which the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 claims that the US domestic production of oil was per day in 2016. But perhaps they look at Fracking in the USA as a method of pressing down the oil price marginally and not as a way to become self-sufficient in oil. The extracted amount of shale oil that according to what the French documentary film from 2018 claims that the US pumps up today, would last just as long as according to my calculations for how long the US civilization as we know it can count on to exist, i.e. about additionally 40 years. Is this a coincidence?

The United States, according to the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019, imports 2.0 million barrels a day from Canada and 1.0 million barrels of oil per day from Mexico, but the Mexican oil is out of stock at any time, if the oil wells have not already dried up. Convenient then, that a wall against Mexico is going to be built right about now if Trump gets his way. The United States imports another 700,000 barrels a day from Saudi-Arabia, 400,000 barrels a day from Iraq and 300,000 barrels a day from Venezuela. The known rest or 200,000 barrels come in smaller quantities from other countries. All in all, the known amount of 4.6 million barrels.

If I in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 calculate on all oil countries’ oil exports and the oil countries’ export percentage to the US and then make a comparison with the fixed figures for US oil imports, then about 4.6 million barrels as mentioned above are covered in the book of the US total imported 7.85 million barrels. Thus it doesn’t add up! The United States produces, I guess mainly by the “fracking method”, because it is the method used in the Texas Permian Basin nowadays, 8.853 million barrels a day in 2016 according to the fact book.

The United States could in theory live solely on Saudi-Arabia’s oil reserves only, realistically or optimistically, depending on how you look at it, 30 years if the Saudis had been able to pump up the oil in the required pace and if they sold their oil exclusively to the United States, which they don’t do today.

Canada sits on 170 billion barrels of crude oil, a fourth place in the world, and the country exports 2.671 million barrels of oil per day, most of which goes to the United States. And Venezuela, which exports oil to China but mostly to the United States, sits on one of the worlds two largest certain oil reserves, the other being Saudi-Arabias, ie. about 300 billion barrels of oil for each of the two nations. But Venezuela is only in place 11 in the world when it comes to crude oil production. They export 1.514 million barrels of oil per day. China can buy just under half of the oil exports that the United States creams out of Venezuela. It is only because of Venezuela’s geographic location and nothing else, that China does not have a larger portion of the pie.

The United States imports a total of 7.850 million barrels of oil per day. That means they have to import more than half of these 7.850 million barrels of oil from the Middle East mainly. This would mean that their civilization can survive unaffected for more than 40 years by importing oil from just Saudi-Arabia, Iraq, Canada and Venezuela + the US own oil production, as long as production and the pie allotment remain constant as in 2016. But then they would have no Allies in Europe to take into account and they must consider at least one European partner – Britain.

The oil deposits at the Golan Heights are estimated to exceed Saudi-Arabia’s oil reserves. The CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 doesn’t mention any evidence of major oil deposits in Israel, but this was expected at this stage, regardless of whether there are any significant oil deposits in the ground at the Golan Heights or not. They do not like lying, but it is actually not proven beyond doubt that there are oil in large quantities at the Golan Heights. It could be an equally unsuccessful project, a mony drain, as with the supposed gas in Siljansringen in Sweden three decades ago.

The European Civilization may have only 20 years of its lifetime left, if we do not pump up our military muscles. The United States military force is an expeditionary one and will not be able to measure up to Europe’s total defense forces, at least not on the ground and at least not without a safe haven and deployment site and not without safe bases. But the Americans have no interest in occupying northwestern Europe. If the United States, together with Britain, are hogging the oil and running over or ignoring most European countries in the process, then England will be left to pick up the bill. It will end with an unintentionally neutering of Great Britain by the United States just as they were neutered by the Romans during the former migration period.

We do not behave like that. We sit on the best magnetic iron ore in the world, but we would never be so stupid that we thought we could become isolationistic while the rest of Europe or the world falls back into the Middle Ages. In that case, we would have to count on a war against an overwhelming opponent. Though in our case, a war against us by the Europeans had not been needed. We would have been goners logistically and materiel-wise anyway. America’s and Europe’s civilizations goes under together, with or without a great war. But good luck trying to get Trump to understand that!

Russia’s oil reserves are estimated to be 80 billion barrels (2017). It will be enough for 20 years if Russia is forced to supply Europe and China with the oil they are used to consuming throughout this time. Today, Russia exports ~50 percent of its oil production.

Azerbaijan’s oil will last for 23 years with its current production rate which is relatively low.

Norway’s oil reserves were 1/6 of the United States in 2017. The Norwegians produced 1,648,000 barrels of oil per day in 2016. They retained 253,000 of these barrels of oil for their own use in 2016. Export is at approximately 80 percent of the total production. Norway is able to produce oil for a further 10 years with the current production rate.

Sweden imported 394,000 barrels of oil per day in 2016. 45 percent of the crude oil came from Russia. 26 percent came from Norway, Nigeria accounted for 10 percent Venezuela for 7 percent and Denmark accounted for 13 percent in 2016.

Sources; CIA WORLD FACTBOOK; and the part about Sweden’s oil imports from the blog Cornucopia? by Lars Wilderäng

The worlds oil reserves of 1 trillion 726 billion barrels of oil in 2017 are sufficient for the whole world for maybe 18 years from 2019. However, there are uncertainties in these estimates. New oil fields are discovered on regular basis, and since 1991, we have declared peak oil every year. Also the Ugandan oil deposits probably wrecks my estimation a bit. But the southeast Asian countries’ economies are growing fast.

But it is more complicated than so. There are actually 161 different internationally traded crude oils on the stock market. It can seem insanely many since you as a consumer only have a few different options to choose from when you refuel your gasoline car. The crude oils all differ in terms of quality and price. Many grades of crude oil are suitable for production of plastics, diesel and fuel oil only. The Norwegian and British oil in the North Sea has been dubbed “Brent oil”. Brent oil is characterized by its high quality and it is suitable for making gasoline from. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also known as Texas Light Sweet, is also a type of high-quality crude oil suitable for making gasoline from, and it is used as a benchmark in oil pricing alongside Brent. Both crude oils are light (low density) and sweet (low in sulfur). Other important oil markers include Dubai Crude and OPEC Reference Basket.

Phosphates

Phosphates are used for manure and it is spread across farmlands around the world to achieve significantly larger harvests. Estimates of phosphate production are sometimes difficult to understand because the phosphates are mined in different forms. The dominant form is ”Phosphate Rock”, a mineral that is usually mined in open pits. Two thirds of the world production are mined in China, the United States and Morocco/Western Sahara. Morocco and the by Morocco occupied Western Sahara account for 30 percent of the export market.

US phosphate reserves will last for 30 years for US use only. The United States does not export phosphate ore. Neither does China. The worlds phosphate reserves are estimated to be around 15 billion tonnes, which is sufficient for the world-wide consumption for 90 years with current technology, according to the US Geological Survey. Phosphate production in the world will not come to a critical low level before the worlds oil reserves peter out. Thus, phosphate production in Morocco/Western Sahara is strategically secondary. This did not prevent the United States from making a bilateral trade deal with Morocco during 2006. The European Union didn’t jump on the train until two years later.

 

Homework:

Can you think of a reason why George W. Bush and the United States made a bilateral trade deal with Morocco during 2006?

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

The importance of Uganda in big politics. Lesson one

The following is evidence based:

Differences between CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2015 and CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 are that in the latter version there are three major countries omitted – Paraguay, Uganda and Japan. These three big countries are the only big real countries that are omitted in the 2018-2019 edition of CIAs World Factbook.

1. Paraguay was omitted because in part the country is involved in and is a hub for arms smuggling, mony laundry, narcotic traffics. They have this in common with most of the Latin American countries. But, and above all, the support of terrorist organizations by possibly branches in the government differ Paraguay from the rest of Latin America. There doesn’t seem to be any effort from the authorities in Paraguay to end it.
2. Uganda is located in Africas south inland 1,200 km southwest of Djibouti near Africas horn. The country was omitted in CIA World Factbook 2018-2019 because they are sitting on conciderable amounts of oil reserves, according to oil-prospects made already in 2008.
3. Japan is not included because Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has deliberately been approaching his country closer to Russia. Among other things, he has met with Vladimir Putin under cozy forms, and Vladimir Putin has opened up for a solution to ongoing border disputes about a few islands north of Japan in the Kuriles. CIA in their book omitted the country of Japan for grand political reasons and not geo-strategical reasons. Japan lacks raw materials, besides REE i.e. Rear Earth Elements which are used in electronics and lasers and such, and they seek a stable raw material supplier of, for example, oil from the Russian Far East. Also, supplies of food from Russia to feed the Japanese population should be an end goal for Japan. There is a fear in the US that Japan will approach Russia and China even more so that they will create an axis. It is not necessarily a rational fear.

The CIA punishes Japan and Paraguay, or sends a signal to them, by omitting them from the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019.

The dispute in the South China Sea is mainly about who is going to be able to control the sea routes not least to the Ugandan oil which has potential to show that it surpass the collective oil reservs off all the OPEC-countries put together. ”Uganda’s oil reserves can match that of the OPEC-countries” says Sally Kornfeld, an analytic for the division of fossil fuels at US Energy Department. The planning and construction for the extraction of oil and building of pipelines in Uganda continues. You can look up Uganda on Wikipedia and read for yourself.

If you do not control the shipping-lanes to Africa chances are very high that you will not get to buy the Ugandan oil. The straits of Malacca, Sunda and Lombok are in the US pocket right now. Therefore the US has the upper hand. But the Chinese are making extensive efforts to gain influence in Malaysia. Among other things they are building four artificial islands in and near the Malacca strait complete with a 700,000 people city as a resort place for the Chinese and a port that can harbor an aircraft carrier and all.

Australia’s importance as a US allied buffert state and a potential base and build up area and whete, corn, dairy and meat storehouse cannot be underestimated.

 

Homework:

Why do you think the country of Uganda was omitted in the paper edition of the CIA World Factbook 2018-2019? Think! You know they have got large amounts of oil. Who benefits from that these oil reserves are coming out on the market? Who has an interest in that affairs with Uganda are being kept covert? Or is the omission a punishment for that Ugandan authorities wants to sell the oil to the wrong part i.e. the Chinese? Your guess is as good as mine or better. I plain don’t know. But I know that the US own WTI shale oil, which is exclusively used for making gasoline, from Texas is satis for maybe 5 years if the US is to be self-sufficient as proclaimed by Donald Trump. And I know that it takes 15 years to develop an oil industry with everything that comes with it in an area where you have not previously extracted any oil. And from 2008 when the oil in Uganda was discovered to 2018 we have come 10 years.

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden