CIA WORLD FACTBOOK – The strategist cowboy

Update on world policies as of May 2023

It has been a long time since I last described what is going on in the world. The reason for that isn’t that I am left in the dark, on the contrary, I am more illuminated than ever. But the reason for my inactivity is that I have nurtured a hope that my country, Sweden, won’t be rendered ”Black Pete”, of the western world. Unfortunately I don’t think Joe Biden gets it, gets anything really. Today I am going to describe what will happen, with the big politics that the great powers may pursue, if Biden and Blinken succeeds.

The Turkish president Erdogan is doing the US and Russian bid of not letting in Sweden into Nato. I personally don’t care if he does or not.

The US administration still is working for our destruction as a country, and in the somewhat longer perspective the destruction of the whole of the EU. I have professed this information already. But here is a simplified short version:

The US administration is about to try and enforce the EU to admit many more refugees than what the EU has taken in, in the last years following on the Covid-19 pandemic. Their motive is a little bit unclear, but one motive may be that Biden and the US don’t want to be left in the wake as the only refugee taking country. They may not want to get ruined as a nation on their own, while the old world continue on with their civilization. But it may be, and I think it is an important factor, that the US long since and with different partisan politicians in the white house since at least Barrack Obama, wants to start this pending war with Iran but ultimately against China, together with the UK and the other five eyes countries and Israel. This is all about oil and phosphate and other raw materials. The US is running out of oil on their own soil fast. Since oil in the world is going to peter out in a few decades, the US wants to use their whole tool box in order to dump the EU and China in its backwater, fending for themselves without oil the best they can. This is a simplified description. Want proof?

I cannot definitely prove my case, but I can give you strong circumstantial evidence for it. Follow my reasoning:

Phosphates are used for crops and it is spread in pellets form across farmlands around the world to achieve significantly larger harvests. Estimates of phosphate production are sometimes difficult to understand because the phosphates are mined in different forms. The dominant form is ”Phosphate Rock”, a mineral that is usually mined in open pits. Two thirds of the world production are mined in China, the United States and Morocco/Western Sahara. Morocco and the by Morocco occupied Western Sahara account for 30 percent of the export market.

Oil will for the whole world last for maybe 14 years with the current consumption, from the year 2023. US phosphate reserves will last for 30 years for US use only. The United States do not export phosphate ore. Neither does China. The world’s phosphate reserves are estimated to be around 15 billion tons, which is sufficient for the world’s consumption for 90 years with current technology, according to the US Geological Survey. Phosphate production in the world will not come to a critical low level before the world’s oil reserves peter out. Thus, phosphate production in Morocco/Western Sahara is strategically secondary. This did not prevent the United States from making a bilateral trade deal with Morocco in 2006. The European Union didn’t jump on the train until two years later.

Can you think of an alternative reason why George W. Bush and the United States made a bilateral trade deal with Morocco in 2006?

The world’s proven oil reserves of 1 trillion 726 billion barrels of oil in 2017 are thus sufficient for the whole world for maybe 14 years from 2023. However, there are uncertainties in these estimates. New oil fields are discovered on a regular basis, and since 1991, we have declared peak oil every year. But we have declared Peak Oil every year! Also the Ugandan oil deposits probably wreck my estimation a bit. But the southeast Asian countries’ economies are growing fast.

There are actually 161 different internationally traded crude oils on the stock market. It can seem insanely many since you as a consumer only have a few different options to choose from when you refuel your gasoline car. The crude oils all differ in terms of quality and price. Many grades of crude oil are suitable for production of diesel and fuel oil only. The Norwegian and British oil in the North Sea has been dubbed “Brent oil”. Brent oil is characterized by its high quality, and it is suitable for making gasoline from. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also known as Texas Light Sweet, is also a type of high-quality crude oil suitable for making gasoline from, and it is used as a benchmark in oil pricing alongside Brent. Both crude oils are light (low density) and sweet (low in sulfur). Other important oil markers include Dubai Crude and OPEC Reference Basket.

What is Biden and Blinken’s short term plan for the Nordic countries then? If Biden gets his wish he will create further animosity by our neighbors towards us Swedes. Russia knows what Biden wants to accomplish. Biden’s first wish is to see Russia attacking and invading Sweden, while he is left to do whatever he wants in the Middle East. The Kremlin just don’t see a Russian war solely against Sweden as being prioritized right now. Biden and Blinken in turn know this. So Biden and Blinken are covertly trying to whip up natural animosities into a tsunami wave from our closest neighbors, Denmark, Norway and Finland, to such extreme levels that our closest neighbors declare war against us Swedes. I feel a little bit like Israel!

What will such a war bring about in the world?

Granted, Sweden is and always has been an anomaly among the Nordic countries. There are plenty of well-preserved moss corpses in Denmark, Germany and even Norway, but there are only two well-preserved moss corpses from Sweden, including Scania, and one of the moss corpses was’nt from the Viking era. This clearly implies a different mindset by us Swedes at the time. We Swedes, including us Scanians, still have a different mindset. The very same different mindset as the one we had a 1000 years ago. In a future podcast I might go more into depth why I think there isn’t much of a cultural difference between modern Swedes and near prehistoric Swedes during and following the former migration period.

A Nordic cannibalistic war brings about chaos in Europe. If this by Biden and Blinken sought after war ever takes place, then we Swedes will win. It might even be that Denmark and Norway calculate with our victory, but that they want to proceed with their invasion plans against the UK, and this is pretty much what they must do then. Follow my reasoning here:

Such a war will make it much, much easier for Biden and the US together with the UK to dump the EU and leave them in the wake of the US and UK civilizations. Whatever did you think that Brexit was all about?

But of course, there are other strong heads, also in Europe. A Nordic war against the Nordic country of Sweden, with the EU risking to collapse because of the previous and current US administrations’ sinister scheme to in the near future cut off Europe’s supply chain of oil, would forge an alliance between Germany and Denmark/Norway against the US collaborator the UK. This in turn would possibly mean that the UK will be kinetically attacked by those countries. And then we will have a new Viking era if the Nordic countries, with the exception of Sweden who will not participate in it, wins such a war of attrition against the UK. I have warned about this scenario for several years now. Why won’t they listen?!

But Biden must act fast fast, in order for him to get his limited war, due to that the US just about now has hit their debt ceiling and is at the very bottom of their domestic oil reserves.

The source for this is all Sveriges Radio

Roger Klang, Lund Scania Sweden

https://sverigesradio.se/konflikt Så ska EU stoppa migranterna

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/liberalerna-sverige-bor-kunna-stotta-taiwan-militart-mot-kina

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/uppgifter-usa-stottar-utbildning-av-ukrainska-piloter-for-f-16

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/zelenskyj-besokte-arabforbundet-uppmanar-ledarna-att-stotta-ukraina

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/erdogan-inte-redo-att-slappa-in-sverige-i-nato-just-nu

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/nya-sanktioner-mot-ryssland-g7-landerna-overens

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/vattenfall-misstanks-for-prismanipulation

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/ryssland-angriper-avloppsverk-nu-ska-svenska-anlaggningar-starkas

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/republikanerna-lamnar-forhandlingarna-om-skuldtaket

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/usa-narmar-sig-skuldtaket-biden-forhandlar-med-republikanerna

5) China: Options. Lesson thirtyseven

What, then, does the future have in its womb? China is the world’s second largest economy. China, which is a hybrid system, partly communist and partly super-capitalist, has now replaced the United States as Asia’s largest trading partner. CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 estimated that China’s defense budget in 2016 was 1.9 percent of GDP. But China does not publish open documents describing the country’s military doctrine or strategy. However, China is said to not make any major secret of which new systems and platforms are produced. I can imagine that China will continue its economic growth, develop its prosperity and raise the standard of living for more and more Chinese citizens. We can then end up in a situation where;

A) The western powers and China will end up in a conflict and with armed forces will fight for trade routes and commodity assets and the oil from the Arab world and Africa. In that case, colonialism will increase in one way or another and the Arab world and Africa will lose. At present time, this scenario is unlikely as long as China is dependent on shipping of oil and agricultural products through the Malacca Strait, which is one of China’s weak spots, for its raw material-consuming industry and its vehicles and food for its demanding population. China hardly controls its own backyard, the South China Sea. China’s military fleet cannot match US Navy before the next 20-30 years. China has only got one or two aircraft carriers, but they have a strong but largely outdated submarine weapon including 7 nuclear-weapon submarines (2012).

B) The western powers will do everything to sugar the financial bids for Africa’s raw materials, and do everything to convince them that they should let our side make investments in different countries and that they should sell the products to our side. China will do the same. In this scenario, the third world will gain greater influence. Depending on how the scenario develops, it may be to our advantage alt. to our disadvantage that China has invested in agricultural production in Africa.

C) The western powers and China eventually end up in a cold war with reasonably civilized competitive conditions where Africa and the Arab world does not get too much influence.

Choose which alternative you prefer and then act accordingly. There is nothing that excludes B from following on C following on A, or any other combination of these three options. I am not mixing Russia into the compote so it won’t be so complicated, but it is probable that China and Russia will enter into a deeper unholy alliance, because it was like that already. China has electronic technology and Russia has commodity resources and natural resources, it is the perfect “reasoning marriage” to use General Major Karlis Neretnieks words. Fortunately, western and Chinese immorality are on different levels, so that the Chinese do business with morally corrupt countries in Africa while the West condemns it, if we can. At the same time, western powers are doing business with morally corrupt Arab countries and also arming these countries to the teeth in the process. But what options for war are then available to China if alternative A becomes dominant? There are two options that I see, and both require a strong Chinese fleet and control over the South China Sea;

1. China builds or invests in, from east to west, the port of Tanjung Priok in Jakarta Indonesia, and Port Klang, Penang and Tanjung Pelepas in the Malacca Strait in Malaysia. The sea route then goes on to the Indian Ocean to Hambantota on the island of Sri Lanka off India’s south coast. In Hambantota there is a port which China has bought. China needs, in order to be able to threaten the western world, to control the well-trafficked Malacca Strait between the island state of Sumatra northwest Australia and the peninsula Malaysia, where 40 percent of world trade, and 80 percent of China’s oil imports go through. But also 100 percent of Japan’s and 90 percent of South Korea’s oil imports go through the Malacca Strait. China can if they control the mentioned seas and straits, and have bases in Gwadar, colonize selected African countries and exert harmful influence on its east Asian neighbors, on African commodity nations, on the Middle East and Europe and the US. If necessary, they can attack European interests via the Djibouti strait between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea at the Horn of Africa and further through the Suez Canal, but they must then be able to dispose of Djibouti with the exclusive right among the Great Powers. In short, the Malacca Strait is the key to world domination and it is the United States that still has the upper hand. Commodities worth 1 billion dollars passes the Strait of Hormuz at the Persian Gulf every day. 85 percent of that oil goes to Asia, 8 percent goes to Europe and 7 percent goes to the US and others. It is because of the strategic Malacca Strait, the Sunda Strait and the Lombok Strait that the United States has an expeditionary troop of 1,250 Marine soldiers in the small town of Darwin in the Northern Territory of Australia. The United States has long had a Marine Corps in Darwin, which was supposed to be greatly strengthened according to a decision by Obama. Probably if the Chinese attack Europe in an Attila style women conquer campaign, it is first initiated by cruise missile attacks from apparently civilian or military Naval ships against military targets and then follows a landing up through Greece-Bulgaria-Romania and on rails through Greece-Serbia-Hungary into Central Europe.

2. In this option, China still has to secure the Malacca Strait and keep Australia and New Zealand at bay alt. invading port cities, keeping their shipping routes to the Middle East and Africa open while keeping the Americans 3rd fleet in California, Washington and Hawaii and the smaller 7th fleet in Apra Harbor Guam and in Yokosuka Japan away from uploading in the Pacific sea. China surprise attacks and strikes the US expeditionary Marine Corps in Australia and the bulk of the US fleet in the Pacific Ocean, the US base in Djibouti at the Horn of Africa, the marine base of the small island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and the 5:th fleet in the Persian Gulf, leaving the opportunities open to China to control selected parts of Africa and the Persian Gulf, while giving Europe an opportunity to stay out of the war by delimiting the Chinese influence plus the assets of the raw material countries in Africa, but above all leaving the oil countries in north Africa free so that they can sell or exchange oil for weapons with the Europeans. This scenario is less likely due to the US nuclear super power status.

China was demanding a 35-year lease with Greece for the port of Piraeus, if they were to help the Greeks by buying government bonds. The port has now been incorporated under Chinese trustee. The port of Piraeus is well protected in the Greek archipelago in very close proximity to the capital Athens. So you know what awaits you Greeks! The Chinese must control the strategically important western gateway to the Mediterranean. And perhaps they make a mark on Italy’s foot or at least take Sicily, Malta and knock out the fleet base in the Taranto Gulf on Italy’s boot hills in a first step and then disembark in the coastal areas of Slovenia, or disembark in Slovenia’s capital Trieste in the Gulf of Trieste in the northern Adriatic Sea east of Italy. All available ports will be used. Then follows a deployment up to Central Europe through Austria. They will certainly try to discourage the United States from intervening, and they may even be able to buy the United States by a delimitation of China’s own influence in the oil-producing countries of Africa. The Chinese must initially strike France’s and Britain’s strategic submarines already in port if possible. The Chinese also need to bridge the logistically gigantic distances if they want to control the western gateway to the Mediterranean. They are trying to solve this problem through recent investments in Spain and Portugal (2017). It is possible to achieve, but the Chinese-controlled ports i.e. the logistics nodes then become opportune targets. Therefore, the whole scenario is a gamble. Thus, we can expect a Chinese surprise attack and deployment of anti-ship missile systems and air defense systems on the British base in Gibraltar to take control of the Gibraltar strait.

China will not attack Europe by road with green forces on any route in the next decade. India and Pakistan stand in the way of the Chinese, so they cannot with an army forcefully access Europe on the south land route. But in order to afford to attack Europe by land, China first needs normal trade relations with India and Pakistan. Therefore, the Chinese are planning new routes to link Beijing with Pakistan and India via Kazakhstan to the north. The Kremlin is either trying to counter this or not.

The ideal way for the Chinese to deploy directly to Europe is via Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan and then Iran and Turkey. Should they take the possible route north through Kazakhstan and Russia or west of the Caspian Sea via Iran, then Russia must allow the Chinese to pass by either Volgograd, or directly through the oil installations in the Caucasus in a situation where the oil in the Caucasus will be cut off by the Chinese. If the Chinese circumvent Russia, then they must finally cross a narrow strait called the Bosphorus in Istanbul Turkey before reaching Europe, which is far from ideal whether it is intended to be via the three bridges or via ferries or both bridges and ferries. The train tunnel requires control of the energy network, it is not that easy as just loading on combat vehicles on a train trailer. But China’s ability to invade parts of Europe in an Attila style women conquer campaign can shift to China’s favor if China controls the Malacca Strait and preferably the Balabac Strait, the Makassar Strait, the Mindoro Strait, the Lombok Strait and the Sunda Strait.

In particular, China already has access to the port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka off India’s southeast coast and have built military bases in Gwadar in Pakistan and they have a base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa. They have also built a military runway on a Kambodian island and they have invested in a Kambodian Naval base in the Gulf of Thailand, according to publically released images, from American imaging satellites, in 2020. That’s not even within the arbitrary Chinese Nine-dash line. China may be able to project enough military and economic power in the Gulf of Thailand to put pressure on Thailand to let the Chinese dig a canal through the narrow country which will make sure that Chinese merchant ships in the future can pass between the Gulf of Thailand and the Bengal Bay to reach the Indian Ocean without even having to pass the Malacca Strait. Another known project is that China has built a railway from Djibouti to Addis Ababa in central Ethiopia. The railway line may have, or is of logistical advantage.

A brand new railway will be built between Budapest in Hungary and Belgrade in Serbia, which connects to an already existing railroad between Belgrade and the port city of Piraeus near Athens in Greece, a port which the Chinese already run under their own control. However, the Chinese must invade Gibraltar in a surprise attack first, and deploy air defense systems and anti-ship missiles there, before they can attempt an invasion of Europe’s inland from the Mediterranean, which would be fairly easy given that the British normally lack qualified and relevant military systems in Gibraltar. An attack in advance on Gibraltar becomes the trigger that reveals that a major war has started. Therefore, one should be vigilant when Chinese aircraft carriers and other warships visit mainly Spanish and Portuguese ports, especially in combination with supposedly civilian Chinese ships.

The train tunnel under the strait of Bosphorus I do not believe much in initially in an invasion scenario. The Chinese do not know anything about the capacity of bridges or ferries yet. The whole endeavor would be a blind operation with a gigantic and long logistics chain that would be very vulnerable. But if they succeed in establishing the new Chinese silk road project “Silk Road Economic Belt” in the future, then maybe they can succeed with an invasion scenario by land.

Homework:

How do you figure the Turks will react when they learn about this coming Chinese venture? Will they go along with it in order not to pay the ultimate price in women losses and losses of Turkish lives?

Surely the Iranians would let the Chinese transit through their country?

Do the Chinese first have to make the country of Afghanistan their private brothel as once the Mongols did before them in history, in order for the Chinese to gain possession of a build up area and a grain storehouse before they embark on the further invasion of Europe?

Please motivate your opinion.

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

Where does Germany get its oil from? Lesson fifteen

Countries mentioned with the biggest partner first in order and the smallest partner last in order.

Saudi-Arabia export: China 13.6%, Japan 11.3%, India 10.7%, US 9.8%, South Korea 9.1%, Singapore 4.7% (2016)

Saudi-Arabia import: China 16.2%, US 15.0%,
Germany 6.3%, Japan 5.3%, UAE 5.0%, South
Korea 4.3% (2016)

Iran export: China 30.1%, India 16.7%, South Korea 9.7%, Turkey 9.5%, Japan 6.8% (2016)

Iran import: UAE 27.4%, China 13.2%, Turkey
7.8%, South Korea 4.3%, Germany 4.0% (2016)

Iraq export: China 25.4%, India 17.3%, US 14.3%, South Korea 12.0%, Italy 6.5%, Greece 6.1% (2016)

Iraq import: China 23.5%, Turkey 23.0%, Iran
20.0%, South Korea 5.0%, US 4.0% (2016)

Kuwait export: South Korea 16.8%, China 14.4%, Japan 9.6%, India 9.2%, US 7.5%, Singapore 5.6% (2016)

Kuwait import: China 14.1%, US 11.9%, UAE 8.3%,
Japan 6.5%, Germany 6.2%, India 5.4%, Italy 5.0%,
Saudi-Arabia 4.4%, South Korea 4.4% (2016)

Qatar export: Japan 20.0%, South Korea 15.5%, India 13.1%, China 8.2%, UAE 5.5%, Singapore 5.3% (2016)

Qatar import: US 13.7%, Germany 9.8%, UAE
9.2%, China 8.6%, Japan 7.2%, UK 5.5%, Saudi
Arabia 4.6%, Italy 4.4% (2016)

United Arab Emirates export: India 9.9%, Iran 8.9%, Japan 8.8%, Switzerland 8.5%, Oman 5.4%, China 5.1% (2016)

United Arab Emirates import: China 7.4%, US
6.9%, India 6.8%, Germany 4.4% (2016)

Bahrain export: Saudi-Arabia 18.3%, UAE 17.5%, US 11.1%, Japan 8.7%, Qatar 4.8%, China 4.2% (2016) Bahrain exports no oil but they export a lot of refined Kerosene used for aircraft propulsion.

Bahrain import: China 9.7%, US 8.6%, UAE 7.4%,
Japan 6.1%, Saudi-Arabia 5.5% (2016) Bahrain is a
net importer of crude oil.

Libya export: Italy 24.2%, Egypt 21.1%, Spain 9.5%, France 7.8%, Croatia 5%, Netherlands 5%, China 4.3% (2016)

Libya import: China 14.4%, South Korea 13.3%,
Turkey 10.4%, Italy 5.9% (2016)

But what about Germany? Are they to make me believe that Germany export technology to many of those countries without getting anything in return, like oil?

Sadly the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK doesn’t reveal where Germany gets most of its oil from. Apparently from none of the above countries and not from Oman, UK or Norway either. Even though Germany may still buy a percentage of oil from Norway and the United Kingdom for a few years yet, and allthough Germany buys quite much of its oil from Russia but apparently aren’t exporting much goods worth mentioning to Russia, there is a discrepancy between their exports of technology and imports of oil in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK.

The UK export quota to Germany is 10.7 percent of all exports. That’s a big share only second to their export to the US. Their import quota from Germany is 13.6 percent which amounts up to a number one place on the list. The UK produce 933,000 bbl of oil per day and export 632,200 bbl of oil per day, and of that only 154,000 bbl of oil per day are exported to Germany. That will not sustain total German oil consumption by far. Anyway, note that it is not million barrels per day, it’s only in the hundreds of thousands. The UK is Germany’s least important import partner on the important list in the book, in total 4.1 percent of Germany’s total import quota. But the UK is third on the list of Germany’s export partners after the US and France in that order.

But Germany may have put their eggs in multiple baskets. So many that they fly under the radar for oil in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK. Of the 11 most important import partners Germany has, Russia isn’t mentioned. Of their 9 export partners you cannot find Russia, but you can find small countries, among them the Netherlands as number 4 in the list.

If you read on the pages for Russia’s main export partners, Germany is number 3 after the Netherlands as number 1 and China as number 2.

As Russia’s import partner number 2 after China we see Germany again. Only Russia’s GDP is 4 trillion dollars and Germany’s is 4.15 trillion dollars.

Something is clearly rotten in the state of Germany. And also in the Netherlands because for Russia the Netherlands is the number 1 export partner, but for the Netherlands Russia is only the number 6 import partner, a mere last in the mentioned list. It just doesn’t add up at all!

I need to mention that Germany exports electricity. 78.86 billion kWh exported electricity. (Germany imports 28.34 billion kWh.) Of the total installed German capacity 42.6 percent comes from fossil fuels, 5.3 percent of the total installed German capacity comes from nuclear fuels, 2.2 percent comes from hydroelectric plants and renewable sources amounts to 49.9 percent of total installed German capacity.

And this is where it gets really funny. In the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019, Germany is said to produce 8.73 billion cubic meters of gas (2015) and the book tells us that Germany import 102.5 billion cu m of gas (2015). That amounts up to 111.23 billion cu m of gas. But they export 32.51 billion cu m of gas and Germany consume 773.2 billion cu m of gas. Their own proved reserves of natural gas is only 41.99 billion cubic meters total. Oh Germany, what are you hiding? Something isn’t right.

Nord Stream is said to be operating two gas pipelines from Russia to Germany with an annual total capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of gas. Apparantly it is for each gas pipeline. Russia’s Gazprom, which supplies the gas, owns 51 percent of Nord Stream, while German, French and Dutch shareholders constitute the remaining owners. Gazprom does not need more than 51 percent of the Nord Stream shares in order for Putin to control Nord Stream in total, as Gazprom is so regimented unilaterally Kremlin loyal and its majority of CEOs are high ranking former Russian militaries posing as members of a board.

Hmm, interesting, Dutch shareholders! How much of Germany’s oil comes from Russia via the Netherlands?

Belgium is a country which has no main oil-producing import partners apart from the US and the UK who imports for their own part. Its biggest import partner is the Netherlands. Belgium imports 639,500 bbl of oil per day. This I suspect should mainly come from Russia via the Netherlands since Russia is not mentioned as one of Belgium’s 7 most important import partners. The UK is the number 5 in declining order. Belgium’s main export partner is Germany, but Belgium doesn’t seem to export any oil, only refined petroleum products according to the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019. They have no natural gas production but they consume 23.01 billion cu m of gas (2015) and they export 1.694 billion cu m of gas (2015). They import 18.81 billion cubic meter of gas (2015) according to the factbook. The import of gas comes from the UK. They are not among Russias 6 main export or 6 main import partners mentioned in the factbook. They are likely to buy their oil from someone who buys it from Russia in their turn.

But to be fair, it is not uncommon for the numbers not to add up in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK. It is the same for the UK regarding gas-production, gas-imports, gas-exports and gas-consumption, only not as significant as it is for Germany.

Germany imports 1.837 million bbl of oil per day, a nr 6 in the world. Crude oil proved reserves is only 145.4 million bbl of oil.

Kazakhstan and Azerbaian should according to sane security policy reasonably belong to the ’Russian quota’ since Russia controls the oil pipelines to e.g. Leningrad Oblast. At least as long as there is no oil pipeline in Turkey not controlled by Russia. Germany’s own data from the Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi) regarding the 33 million tonnes of oil (i.e. 240 million bbl) reportedly imported from Russia should instead amount to 43+ million tonnes (i.e. 312+ million bbl) as Germany according to the statistics import 8 million tonnes (i.e. 58+ million bbl) from Kazakhstan and 2 million tonnes (i.e. 14.5+ million bbl) from Azerbaijan.

And most of the oil imported to Germany from the Netherlands should probably also be accounted to import from Russia. But the Netherlands despite being Germany’s number one import partner is belonging to the column called ”Rest of world (-12 countries)”. This shouldn’t be. It should belong to the Russian column and almost all of the oil in the last column must come via the Netherlands. There is just no other way to interpret all the information in this article, and even then it doesn’t add up nearly as good as it should have. As I have said, Russia’s number one export partner is the Netherlands, two places above Germany on the list, and if Germany imports 312 million bbl a year from Russia, ¾ of that which is exported from Russia to the Netherlands, and Germany’s main import partner is the Netherlands… Well, you do the math!

According to the Swedish security blogger Cornucopia? Sweden imports 394,000 bbl of oil a day (2016). That equals 54+ thousand tonnes a day or 19.7+ million tonnes a year. 45 percent of that crude oil comes from Russia and 26 percent comes from Norway.

Since Norway’s export to Germany is nearly exactly twice as much as their export to Sweden according to the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019, our 26 percent oil qouta bought from Norway i.e. 102,440 bbl, should land at 205,000 bbl of Norwegian oil bought by Germany. And it does according to the BMWi.

Since Germany’s total import of oil is 1.837 million bbl of oil per day and the import of oil from Russia is 312+ million bbl per year or 854,795 bbl of oil per day, then the remainder is 982,205 bbl per day they have to get from somewhere else than Russia. As I have stated, 205,000 bbl per day comes from Norway and about 175,000 bbl a day comes from the UK to Germany. That adds up to 602,205 bbl of crude oil they have to get from the rest of the countries on the list above. What they have to get from the rest equals almost 1/3 or 29 percent of the total oil import from every other nation but Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaian, Norway and the UK. The Norwegian and British oil is Brent-oil used to make gasoline from and Germany’s vehicle park is mainly running on diesel.

Scandinavians are less prone to use Diesel passenger vehicles due to our climate conditions. Some types of BIO diesel for instance freeze at just 1°C or 33.8°F. If diesel is mixed with rapeseed methyl esters (RME) the fuel lumps together at about -15°C or 5°F, and you need to add additional regular diesel.

Sources; CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019; and the blog Cornucopia?; and the Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi) and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_BK7PRugK4

If the numbers in a source lacks a year attached to it, it is always to be understood as the year 2016

Homework:

I want to emphasize that when putting a point in a number followed by the word ”million” like this; 1.837 million, it means 1 837 000. When putting commas in a number like this; 1,602,205 it means that it is the full number 1 602 205 and it is not followed by the word ”million”.

How do you interpret the numbers? Are the Germans hiding something you think?

Or do you think that the numbers are legit? Please motivate your standpoint.

For this task you may use the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK as much as you wish.

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

Who trades with the countries in the Persian Gulf? Lesson twelve

Countries mentioned with the biggest partner first in order and the smallest partner last in order.

Saudi-Arabia export: China 13.6%, Japan 11.3%, India 10.7%, US 9.8%, South Korea 9.1%, Singapore 4.7% (2016)

Saudi-Arabia import: China 16.2%, US 15.0%, Germany 6.3%, Japan 5.3%,
UAE 5.0%, South Korea 4.3% (2016)

Iran export: China 30.1%, India 16.7%, South Korea 9.7%, Turkey 9.5%, Japan 6.8% (2016)

Iran import: UAE 27.4%, China 13.2%, Turkey 7.8%, South Korea 4.3%,
Germany 4.0% (2016)

Iraq export: China 25.4%, India 17.3%, US 14.3%, South Korea 12.0%, Italy 6.5%, Greece 6.1% (2016)

Iraq import: China 23.5%, Turkey 23.0%, Iran 20.0%, South Korea 5.0%,
US 4.0% (2016)

Kuwait export: South Korea 16.8%, China 14.4%, Japan 9.6%, India 9.2%, US 7.5%, Singapore 5.6% (2016)

Kuwait import: China 14.1%, US 11.9%, UAE 8.3%, Japan 6.5%,
Germany 6.2%, India 5.4%, Italy 5.0%, Saudi-Arabia 4.4%, South Korea 4.4%
(2016)

Qatar export: Japan 20.0%, South Korea 15.5%, India 13.1%, China 8.2%, UAE 5.5%, Singapore 5.3% (2016)

Qatar import: US 13.7%, Germany 9.8%, UAE 9.2%, China 8.6%, Japan 7.2%,
UK 5.5%, Saudi-Arabia 4.6%, Italy 4.4% (2016)

United Arab Emirates export: India 9.9%, Iran 8.9%, Japan 8.8%, Switzerland 8.5%, Oman 5.4%, China 5.1% (2016)

United Arab Emirates import: China 7.4%, US 6.9%, India 6.8%,
Germany 4.4% (2016)

Bahrain export: Saudi-Arabia 18.3%, UAE 17.5%, US 11.1%, Japan 8.7%, Qatar 4.8%, China 4.2% (2016) Bahrain exports no oil but they export a lot of refined Kerosene used for aircraft propulsion.

Bahrain import: China 9.7%, US 8.6%, UAE 7.4%,
Japan 6.1%, Saudi-Arabia 5.5% (2016) Bahrain is a
net importer of crude oil.

As you can see for yourself, China is up there as a trading partner with the countries in the Persian Gulf and is a bigger partner than the US is in most cases.

Source; CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019

Homework:

What do you think the implications on the nations around the Persian Gulf are now that China is trading so closely with both Sunni-muslim Saudi-Arabia and Shia-muslim Iran? Does it have a stabilizing effect in the sense that China acts as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and that the Chinese can prevent the Iranians from knocking out most of the Saudis’ oil facilities?

For this task please remember that the United States has an oil and commodity embargo on Iran, which China ignores most of the time. China is also the main trading partner for Shia-dominated Iraq by 64-69% Shia-Iraqis against 29-34% Sunni-Iraqis.

And please note that the US also are one of the major trading partners for Saudi-Arabia and Iraq in that order, but the US doesn’t trade with Iran.

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

The end of all civilizations. Lesson three

In 2013 the United States extracted, in its country, amounts of oil equivalent to 60 percent of their nation’s oil consumption. America consumes 10 liters of oil per person and day. But in 2019 the United States oil reserve days are basically over, unless we account for oil that comes from shale and difficult-to-reach oil reserves. And you need to pump down toxic chemicals into the ground to be able to extract the shale oil. Moreover, the shale oil’s impact on the market is temporary. The 35 billion Texan barrels of oil in an area as big as Alabama will only supply America for a few years:

320,000,000 inhabitants consume 10 liters per person and day =
3,200,000,000 x 365 = 1,168,000,000,000 / 159 liters per barrel =
7,300,000,000 barrels in one year =
Maybe 5 years of consumption for the entire American people.

Texas consists largely of desert, but this desert has an ecosystem. I think Trump is in a propaganda war with the oil-producing countries that do not have to use chemicals to be able to pump up oil. He says that everything is well and he has said that the US would become self-sufficient in oil and even become a net exporter of oil. But what president wants to go down in history as the president who poisoned America’s environment and above all its sweat water sources to the extent we see today with the Fracking method, if there was high quality oil to be bought elsewhere for the US? This story is going to float up to the surface and haunt Trump for sure.

Trump writes in his book “Crippled America” from 2015, that researchers at (the small university) Rice University in Huston Texas have estimated that the US “can have” two trillion barrels of “recoverable oil” so that it will suffice for US consumption for 285 years. Firstly, if you calculate on 2 trillion barrels and the population of the United States in 2015, then the given number is incorrect. The correct number would be 270 years. I also do not believe in the estimation of “2 trillion barrels” because it would mean that the United States has got more oil reserves than the rest of the world put together. Quite much more. I think it is a joyish calculation, especially considering that the US has to make use of Fracking to such a great extent already today to pump up their oil. I think the US is experiencing its last oil boom, and at a great cost to their environment as well.

The CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019, which I trust more than I believe in Trump’s bombastic statements about America’s independence, shows that the United States 2016 imported most of the oil they consume from Canada, Venezuela, Saudi-Arabia and Iraq. But one must make an assessment based on comparison between states in the book and simple calculations. If the USA does not import oil but instead exports domestic oil, they have stepped up the Fracking extraction of oil with rocket speed in the past years since 2016. It now defacto appears as if the United States has so much oil that it will last forever and that it even can be exported because they have too much of the product, if anyone can have that. The United States, as the foremost player in the West and Saudi-Arabia as the leading player in the Middle East, is in a nerve war with each other about the oil price.

It seems like if acceptance of the Fracking method has increased in the US. They can destroy the Texan desert, because that eco-environment is not essential to the people of the United States. But judging from the pictures in a recently made French documentary film, the shale oil is at least partly extracted in fertile and inhabited areas in the Permian Basin area of Texas where most of the shale oil comes from.

A basin, just like the Permian Basin, is a place where the ground is lower than its surroundings. A basin can in nature be a very widestretched area ideal for vegetation. Water flows from the surroundings into many of the basins and that makes the basins fertile. Where there are green pastures and ample water reserves are also the same places where people tend to settle. And it is mostly in basins you can find oil. Consequently, the toxins used for the Fracking method, will contaminate the ground and the groundwater used by farmers and as drinking water by people and livestock.

15 million homes in the US get their water from private wells. That is 43.5 million people. 63 million Americans were exposed to unsafe drinking water in 2017, almost 1/5 of the population in the United States. Also, since people first settled in those basins many ideal spots for oil-drilling purposes are inhabited farmland and/or heavily populated city regions. The oil is often literally under the feet of the urban population. That’s what I mean wen I say difficult-to-reach oil reserves.

Pollution in the communities groundwater and in sweetwater lakes force many people to buy bottled water instead of drinking from the tap. A lot of extra energy consumption is thus created when large amounts of water has to be bottled and delivered from far away locations.

The numbers from the French 2018 documentary “The struggle for Oil” speak of 400 million barrels a year or 1.1 million barrels of oil extracted through Fracking in the United States per day. It does not make the United States self-sufficient, but 1.1 million barrels a day is equivalent to what the United States 2016 imported from Saudi-Arabia and Iraq together. It is about 1/7 of the total US oil imports. But the 1.1 million number is only 1/8 of the number which the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 claims that the US domestic production of oil was per day in 2016. But perhaps they look at Fracking in the USA as a method of pressing down the oil price marginally and not as a way to become self-sufficient in oil. The extracted amount of shale oil that according to what the French documentary film from 2018 claims that the US pumps up today, would last just as long as according to my calculations for how long the US civilization as we know it can count on to exist, i.e. about additionally 40 years. Is this a coincidence?

The United States, according to the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019, imports 2.0 million barrels a day from Canada and 1.0 million barrels of oil per day from Mexico, but the Mexican oil is out of stock at any time, if the oil wells have not already dried up. Convenient then, that a wall against Mexico is going to be built right about now if Trump gets his way. The United States imports another 700,000 barrels a day from Saudi-Arabia, 400,000 barrels a day from Iraq and 300,000 barrels a day from Venezuela. The known rest or 200,000 barrels come in smaller quantities from other countries. All in all, the known amount of 4.6 million barrels.

In comparison, the giant American oil rig ”Perdido”, which is located 300 km off-shore in the Mexican Gulf, can pump up maybe 86,000 barrels of oil per day. The oil rig itself cost 3,000,000,000 dollars to build. That means a liter price of 4 dollars or 15 dollars per gallon if the oil rig stands for fifteen years. And that’s not counting salaries for the oil rig’s personnel and maintenance or production stop, nor do I estimate the deconstruction costs. But on the other hand it is a low estimation of the oil rig’s total lifespan. Imagine that, 15 dollars per gallon! The numbers suggests that Perdido is only an experimental platform. But Perdido is extremely remote. Actually 2 million barrels of the US oil is produced by the US with less remote and less complex off-shore platforms in the Mexican Gulf every day. There is thus a difference between off-shore and off-shore.

If I in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 calculate on all oil countries’ oil exports and the oil countries’ export percentage to the US and then make a comparison with the fixed figures for US oil imports, then about 4.6 million barrels as mentioned above are covered in the book of the US total imported 7.85 million barrels. Thus it doesn’t add up! The United States produces, I guess mainly by the “fracking method”, because it is the method used in the Texas Permian Basin nowadays, 8.853 million barrels a day in 2016 according to the fact book.

The United States could in theory live solely on Saudi-Arabia’s oil reserves only, realistically or optimistically, depending on how you look at it, 30 years if the Saudis had been able to pump up the oil in the required pace and if they sold their oil exclusively to the United States, which they don’t do today.

Canada sits on 170 billion barrels of crude oil, a fourth place in the world, and the country exports 2.671 million barrels of oil per day, most of which goes to the United States. And Venezuela, which exports oil to China but mostly to the United States, sits on one of the worlds two largest certain oil reserves, the other being Saudi-Arabias, ie. about 300 billion barrels of oil for each of the two nations. But Venezuela is only in place 11 in the world when it comes to crude oil production. They export 1.514 million barrels of oil per day. China can buy just under half of the oil exports that the United States creams out of Venezuela. It is only because of Venezuela’s geographic location and nothing else, that China does not have a larger portion of the pie.

The United States imports a total of 7.850 million barrels of oil per day. That means they have to import more than half of these 7.850 million barrels of oil from the Middle East mainly. This would mean that their civilization can survive unaffected for more than 40 years by importing oil from just Saudi-Arabia, Iraq, Canada and Venezuela + the US own oil production, as long as production and the pie allotment remain constant as in 2016. But then they would have no Allies in Europe to take into account and they must consider at least one European partner – Britain.

The oil deposits at the Golan Heights are estimated to exceed Saudi-Arabia’s oil reserves. The CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 doesn’t mention any evidence of major oil deposits in Israel, but this was expected at this stage, regardless of whether there are any significant oil deposits in the ground at the Golan Heights or not. They do not like lying, but it is actually not proven beyond doubt that there are oil in large quantities at the Golan Heights. It could be an equally unsuccessful project, a mony drain, as with the supposed gas in Siljansringen in Sweden three decades ago.

The European Civilization may have only 20 years of its lifetime left, if we do not pump up our military muscles. The United States military force is an expeditionary one and will not be able to measure up to Europe’s total defense forces, at least not on the ground and at least not without a safe haven and deployment site and not without safe bases. But the Americans have no interest in occupying northwestern Europe. If the United States, together with Britain, are hogging the oil and running over or ignoring most European countries in the process, then England will be left to pick up the bill. It will end with an unintentionally neutering of Great Britain by the United States just as they were neutered by the Romans during the former migration period.

We do not behave like that. We sit on the best magnetic iron ore in the world, but we would never be so stupid that we thought we could become isolationistic while the rest of Europe or the world falls back into the Middle Ages. In that case, we would have to count on a war against an overwhelming opponent. Though in our case, a war against us by the Europeans had not been needed. We would have been goners logistically and materiel-wise anyway. America’s and Europe’s civilizations goes under together, with or without a great war. But good luck trying to get Trump to understand that!

Russia’s oil reserves are estimated to be 80 billion barrels (2017). It will be enough for 20 years if Russia is forced to supply Europe and China with the oil they are used to consuming throughout this time. Today, Russia exports ~50 percent of its oil production.

Azerbaijan’s oil will last for 23 years with its current production rate which is relatively low.

Norway’s oil reserves were 1/6 of the United States in 2017. The Norwegians produced 1,648,000 barrels of oil per day in 2016. They retained 253,000 of these barrels of oil for their own use in 2016. Export is at approximately 80 percent of the total production. Norway is able to produce oil for a further 10 years with the current production rate.

Sweden imported 394,000 barrels of oil per day in 2016. 45 percent of the crude oil came from Russia. 26 percent came from Norway, Nigeria accounted for 10 percent Venezuela for 7 percent and Denmark accounted for 13 percent in 2016.

Sources; CIA WORLD FACTBOOK; and the part about Sweden’s oil imports from the blog Cornucopia? by Lars Wilderäng

The worlds oil reserves of 1 trillion 726 billion barrels of oil in 2017 are sufficient for the whole world for maybe 18 years from 2019. However, there are uncertainties in these estimates. New oil fields are discovered on regular basis, and since 1991, we have declared peak oil every year. Also the Ugandan oil deposits probably wrecks my estimation a bit. But the southeast Asian countries’ economies are growing fast.

But it is more complicated than so. There are actually 161 different internationally traded crude oils on the stock market. It can seem insanely many since you as a consumer only have a few different options to choose from when you refuel your gasoline car. The crude oils all differ in terms of quality and price. Many grades of crude oil are suitable for production of plastics, diesel and fuel oil only. The Norwegian and British oil in the North Sea has been dubbed “Brent oil”. Brent oil is characterized by its high quality and it is suitable for making gasoline from. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also known as Texas Light Sweet, is also a type of high-quality crude oil suitable for making gasoline from, and it is used as a benchmark in oil pricing alongside Brent. Both crude oils are light (low density) and sweet (low in sulfur). Other important oil markers include Dubai Crude and OPEC Reference Basket.

Phosphates

Phosphates are used for manure and it is spread across farmlands around the world to achieve significantly larger harvests. Estimates of phosphate production are sometimes difficult to understand because the phosphates are mined in different forms. The dominant form is ”Phosphate Rock”, a mineral that is usually mined in open pits. Two thirds of the world production are mined in China, the United States and Morocco/Western Sahara. Morocco and the by Morocco occupied Western Sahara account for 30 percent of the export market.

US phosphate reserves will last for 30 years for US use only. The United States does not export phosphate ore. Neither does China. The worlds phosphate reserves are estimated to be around 15 billion tonnes, which is sufficient for the world-wide consumption for 90 years with current technology, according to the US Geological Survey. Phosphate production in the world will not come to a critical low level before the worlds oil reserves peter out. Thus, phosphate production in Morocco/Western Sahara is strategically secondary. This did not prevent the United States from making a bilateral trade deal with Morocco during 2006. The European Union didn’t jump on the train until two years later.

Homework:

Can you think of a reason why George W. Bush and the United States made a bilateral trade deal with Morocco during 2006?

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden