Updated
In World Israel News july 17, 2023, there is a headline: Quote; ”Israel recognizes Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.” End quote
The headline is noticable but hardly remarkable. Let me start by stating some facts.
Phosphates
Morocco and the by Morocco occupied Western Sahara is a major supplier of phosphates, which is used in the agricultural sector. Phosphates are used for crops and it is spread in pellets form across farmlands around the world to achieve significantly larger harvests. Estimates of phosphate production are sometimes difficult to understand because the phosphates are mined in different forms. The dominant form is ”Phosphate Rock”, a mineral that is usually mined in open pits. Two thirds of the world production are mined in China, the United States and Morocco/Western Sahara. Morocco and the by Morocco occupied Western Sahara account for 30 percent of the export market.
My guess is that Israel is a minor consumer of phosphates. But the US isn’t. Neither is Europe.
US phosphate reserves will last for 30 years for US use only. The United States does not export phosphate ore. Neither does China. The world’s phosphate reserves are estimated to be around 15 billion tons, which is sufficient for the world’s consumption for 90 years with current technology, according to the US Geological Survey. Phosphate production in the world will not come to a critical low level before the world’s oil reserves peter out. Thus, phosphate production in Morocco/Western Sahara is strategically secondary. This did not prevent the United States from making a bilateral trade deal with Morocco in 2006. The European Union didn’t jump on the train until two years later.
Don’t rock the boat!
I think that Israel is recognizing a potential strategic asset in the Morocco/Western Sahara phosphates. However, they are not doing God’s will. Western Sahara doesn’t deserve being occupied by the Moroccans. Except, in practice Israel’s move doesn’t make any difference from before. Both the EU, the US and Israel have for a very long time lived on the broken backs of the Western Saharans, and in the process we have carefully avoided to mention this little immoral and unrighteous Moroccan territorial claims, just to be able to buy the phosphates from Morocco and the by Morocco occupied territory of Western Sahara.
Before I go on, I want to emphasize the importance for Europe to have this policy of buying phosphates from Morocco and keeping quiet about the Moroccan occupation of Western Sahara.
Fact: If we hadn’t done that, we would also not have been able to harbor any refugees in our countries. Food would have been to scarce. And if we wouldn’t have been able to harbor refugees, we would not have been able to sustain an economic growth simultaneous with a declining domestic birth rate. Our politicians have decided that we must have a steady economic growth, and the price for that is inevitably immigration. You can think of it what you want, but it is a fact. We get richer as a nation from immigration. There is a reason why the richest countries in history also have had the most diversified population, and the poorest countries in history have had the most homogenous population. Though, some are more equal than others, because the rich and powerful gets much richer and powerful than the rest of us. This in the end leads to the downfall of civilizations.
So, do you recognize how this is an opportunity for Israel? They get their hand into the bread basket for the price of nothing. But nothing has really changed, business as usual and all that. And to top it off, they can claim success for the Abraham Accords. It is a smart move.
A headline on SR; Ekot on Sunday July 16 reads (translated):
Quote; ”EU and Tunisia sign new migration treaty.” End quote
It may have to do with Algerian gas exports to Europe via Tunisia and Italy. Italy taps a lot of the gas. Algeria/Tunisia and Morocco aren’t very sweet friends, albeit some of the Algerian gas pipelines traverse Moroccan territory into Spain. It’s complicated! Algerian gas exports to Europe had fallen by 22% by 2019. Guess it is going up again. It should be the ones tapping gas from this pipeline who have to proportionally absorb the migration flood emanating from this treaty!
How to smooth things over
Morocco/Western Sahara has got almost no Shia – <0.1 percent. Terror groups are ISIS, and Islamic State of Iraq previously referred to as al-Qaeda in Iraq. All FACTS according to the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2023-2024.
Israel Kasnett, TPS, excuse the state of Israel contrary to facts, on the online news site WIN, quote – and the following is one long quoute:
“Morocco shares a long border with Algeria, an ally of Iran, which directly threatens it militarily and through its support for Polisario separatism.”
In a significant step for Israel-Morocco relations, King Mohammed VI on Wednesday invited Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to visit the kingdom.
The invitation came after Israel officially recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara region earlier in the week.
The invitation came in the form of a warm, personal letter in which His Majesty thanked the State of Israel for its recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara. The visit will open up new possibilities for strengthening relations between the two countries, the king wrote.
Israel’s decision also holds immense significance due to its direct impact on the activities of Iran and its proxy Hezbollah in North Africa, disrupting their efforts to establish roots and expand their presence in the region.
Former Israeli National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat told the Tazpit Press Service that while he is aware that the steps towards recognizing Western Sahara took place over an extended period of time, “there is importance in Israel strengthening its position and presence on the African continent, especially at a time when Iran and its partners are trying to establish a foothold in Africa.”
Addressing why Israel waited until now to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty, he said he assumes that part of the time was required to examine the step’s possible consequences.
According to Ben-Shabbat, the recognition “is a proper and desirable step for several reasons. It reflects the deep trust between Israel and Morocco and Israel’s commitment to developing warm relations between the two countries and peoples.”
It “promotes a realistic and existing solution to this territory, which the United States has also recognized,” and “serves as a clear statement against the forces that oppose Morocco, supported by Iran and Algeria,” he said.
Ben-Shabbat said Israel can expect that ties between the two countries will improve even further now, adding that “despite the impressive progress in relations between Israel and Morocco since normalization, there is still great untapped potential in the economic, technological and political spheres.
“Additionally,” he said, “Morocco can play an important role in bringing other North African countries into the peace circle.”
Western Sahara shares a border with Mauritania, which Israel hopes will also normalize ties with it as part of the Abraham Accords.
The Algerian Angle
In an effort to maintain parity with its formidable regional counterpart, Algeria, Morocco is actively bolstering its defense investments. For numerous years, Rabat has perceived Algeria as a significant threat, particularly following the termination of diplomatic ties by Algiers in August 2011.
As part of this effort, Morocco has been preparing to acquire an undisclosed number of decommissioned Merkava tanks from Israel. The completion of this deal, anticipated within the coming months, will mark Morocco as the first foreign buyer of Merkava tanks.
According to a Foreign Policy article in June, “After [President Donald] Trump recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for Morocco normalizing its relationship with Israel, Tel Aviv and Rabat cemented the deal with a bevy of military and economic agreements. Algeria sees this new romance between Morocco, the United States, and Israel—three of its longtime enemies—as a threat to its security.”
In 2020, when Morocco reestablished diplomatic relations with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords, the Algerian government initiated a smear campaign against the kingdom, despite its reputation for tolerance and coexistence. However, at the same time, discreetly, Algeria engaged in undisclosed business dealings with Israel.
While Israel has no diplomatic relations with Algeria, Israel’s imports from the country stood at $21.38 million in 2022, according to the United Nations Comtrade database.
So while it refrains from officially recognizing Israel and publicly expresses animosity towards it, Algeria sells goods to Israel, facilitated by the ruling junta.
The Western Sahara is the primary source of contention between Morocco and Algeria. After Spain withdrew from the area in 1975, both Morocco and Mauritania claimed sovereignty over the territory. The Polisario Front, a movement representing the indigenous Sahrawi people, also declared the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) and sought independence.
Algeria supported the Polisario Front, providing it with military aid and training and diplomatic recognition. Morocco eventually gained control over most of the Western Sahara, while the Polisario Front maintained control over some parts, leading to a prolonged conflict.
The conflict between Morocco and Algeria has been fueled by ideological differences as well. Historically, Algeria aligned itself with socialist and anti-colonial movements, supporting self-determination struggles across Africa. Morocco, on the other hand, has maintained closer ties with Western powers and pursued a more pro-Western foreign policy.
The Iranian Threat
Dr. Yechiel Leiter, the director-general of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, also views Israel’s gesture to Morocco as positive.
“Morocco shares a long border with Algeria, an ally of Iran, which directly threatens it militarily and through its support for Polisario separatism. Were the Polisario to achieve its goal, Western Sahara would be an Algerian puppet state, contributing to strengthening an Iranian proxy,” Leiter told TPS.
He noted that the Iranian regime “supplies the Polisario with antiaircraft missiles and drones through the services of Algeria and Hezbollah. Together with the IRGC [Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps], Hezbollah is also training Polisario fighters. The Polisario itself has provided cover for al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), a terrorist group that is active in the Sahel region.”
Morocco also plays a key role in global food production, a major component of which is fertilizer, which requires phosphates. As Leiter points out, “A full 72% of the known phosphate deposits are found in Morocco, and 7% are in Western Sahara. Allowing moderate Morocco to be surrounded by hostile and destabilizing Iranian proxies could potentially have great impact on food security worldwide.”
“The implications of such a concentration of a critical component of the world’s food supply are sobering,” he said. “Were 7% of the world’s known phosphate deposits (in Western Sahara) to fall into the hands of a sovereign entity under the direct influence of Iran, the ramifications could be ominous. But what is far more threatening would be the influence brought to bear on a moderate Morocco with its overwhelming control of the world’s food supply, surrounded by hostile and destabilizing Iranian proxies.”
According to Leiter, “Hezbollah is already deeply involved in West Africa, and the last thing the region needs is another dysfunctional state under the influence of the world’s most significant terror and illicit drug trade organization.”
“Morocco stands against the fanatical Islam exported by the ayatollahs and their proxies,” he said. Its battle against the Polisario and terrorism “is also Israel’s battle.”
Source: World Israel News (WIN)
Roger Klang
Thank you and see you later alligator, at a while crocodile!
https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/eu-och-tunisien-signerar-nytt-migrationsavtal
The strategist cowboy 