Israel – The strategist cowboy

Possible shift in Biden’s grand strategic plans

Never assume that a world leader is good. I want to emphasize the importance that we should not be naive! Biden is thinking of the United States and Americans, when he conducts his politics. But if it does not affect the abilities for America or Americans to economically strengthen or at least maintain their leading position in the world, then of course he can throw a bone to a party outside of AUKUS and the border states of Canada and New Zealand, especially if Biden’s country benefits from it. Israel also has a key position, but I can’t really read out why the Israelis’ treatment of the Palestinians and the West Bank, plays such an important role in Biden’s and Blinken’s plans. However, you can read what Blinken said in black and white with the headline; ”US warns Israel: Peace with Saudis getting ‘tougher, if not impossible’”; on the online medium World Israel News on July 5, 2023. Quote;

“We’ve told our friends and allies in Israel that if there’s a fire burning in their backyard, it’s going to be a lot tougher, if not impossible, to actually both deepen the existing agreements as well as to expand them to include potentially Saudi Arabia,” said Blinken.

He also said, quote;

“It’s also, at least in our judgment as Israel’s closest friend and ally, profoundly not in Israel’s interest for this to happen—both because of the added degree of difficulty that this presents for pursuing normalization agreements, or deepening them, but also because of the practical consequences,” he added. End quote

Why is it not marginal? As for the importance of the Abraham accords, I can understand why the US does not want it to develop between Israel and Saudi-Arabia right now. But it doesn’t seem like the haussed to the sky Israeli intelligence service Mossad really understands how the land lays or why it is so. They persist in opposing Biden’s plans. They have done so for a long time. Of course, the Israelis have an interest in the Middle East, but they should have fathomed that it is not in their interest that the United States fall to pieces by internal division, like once the Roman Empire did before them. We here in Sweden observe how the Israelis act more and more like their antagonists in Iran, Lebanon and Palestine. It’s just that Israel is more powerful than their enemies and they also have more powerful allies.

Have we considered that Israel is a special country? It is the land where Judaism, Islam and Christianity converge – in Jerusalem. In addition, there are elements of reincarnation in Judaism. We can think what we want about it, but the land of Israel is important to our own security. They are important to the whole of Europe’s security. The Israelis know this, why doesn’t the EU realize this? It is mindboggling to the Israelis, probably. We cannot let them perish.

It seems as if we are needed all of a sudden. Saudi-Arabia may be the new enemy. But don’t listen too much when Biden says that, quote; “We have always strongly supported Sweden to get Sweden into NATO” End quote. Empirical evidence shows the opposite. Not once has Biden commented on Erdogan’s tango dance with the Swedish government, but he has, under greatest possible silence, left us alone to cope as best we can in the recent past. It is clear who led in that tango dance, it wasn’t Ulf Kristersson in any case. (Spoiler alert, it was Erdogan.) But it can be differently now, Biden can show a “good” side if he wants to. It’s just that, as an Irish-American, he doesn’t like us Swedes at all. But probably even an Irishman can like Swedes. But not him. Then I don’t like him, and I will turn away my gaze when he is led screaming and kicking to the guillotine by his countrymen. The reactionaries always win in the long run. For being the world’s most powerful man, he poorly realizes that Sweden has been one of the biggest guarantors that the US will remain the master of the world, by our support purchase of US security bonds and us consistently refraining from selling them when the dollar has been under attack. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg of what we’ve done for the United States. But ingratitude is the wages of the weak.

Now a question. Are the Swedes prepared to contribute with troops in a future American war in the Middle East, for example against Saudi-Arabia and, in the extension, China? Are the Swedes prepared for a two-front war? Then we should join NATO. Otherwise, we will probably have to fight Russia alone. But we will win against Russia, mind you. Personally, I do not want to join NATO, because I think it will create greater strain on us in the long run. One must not forget that we have a domestic, quote; “situation”; to deal with, simultaneously. Of our two supposed choices, it is only an all-out Swedish war against Russia on Swedish soil that can straighten up our backbone and make, quote; “our”; criminals listless, which means that in that case we can turn the tide in Sweden. Also remember that a Swedish NATO membership in no way provides any guarantees that we will be able to stay out of a war against Russia in the event of a major war. An American war against one or more actors is in the long run inevitable unless the Gulf states change their mind, because China gets most of the oil from the Persian Gulf oil states and the US has domestic oil for perhaps only 12 more years of consumption if you are to believe the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2023-2024 . I don’t think it’s possible to achieve, but if the US were to run its motor park and its many fossil fueled powerplants on domestic oil alone, that time would almost be halved to only six years of consumption. It has become more difficult to calculate precisely, because the CIA has deliberately made it so in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2023-2024 compared to previous editions of the book. Maybe you can thank Me for that.

It is established in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK that Saudi-Arabia, just like Iran, and every other oil producing country in the Persian Gulf, does more business with China than with the United States. Saudi-Arabia has literally extended a hand to Iran recently. They are suicidal. It’s clear as hell that it has the potential to overturn the US original game plan. But in that case, it’s not the tiles that are moved alternate, the whole boardgame is likely to change.

Roger Klang

Morocco and Israel Vs. Western Sahara

Updated

In World Israel News july 17, 2023, there is a headline: Quote; ”Israel recognizes Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.” End quote

The headline is noticable but hardly remarkable. Let me start by stating some facts.

Phosphates

Morocco and the by Morocco occupied Western Sahara is a major supplier of phosphates, which is used in the agricultural sector. Phosphates are used for crops and it is spread in pellets form across farmlands around the world to achieve significantly larger harvests. Estimates of phosphate production are sometimes difficult to understand because the phosphates are mined in different forms. The dominant form is ”Phosphate Rock”, a mineral that is usually mined in open pits. Two thirds of the world production are mined in China, the United States and Morocco/Western Sahara. Morocco and the by Morocco occupied Western Sahara account for 30 percent of the export market.

My guess is that Israel is a minor consumer of phosphates. But the US isn’t. Neither is Europe.

US phosphate reserves will last for 30 years for US use only. The United States does not export phosphate ore. Neither does China. The world’s phosphate reserves are estimated to be around 15 billion tons, which is sufficient for the world’s consumption for 90 years with current technology, according to the US Geological Survey. Phosphate production in the world will not come to a critical low level before the world’s oil reserves peter out. Thus, phosphate production in Morocco/Western Sahara is strategically secondary. This did not prevent the United States from making a bilateral trade deal with Morocco in 2006. The European Union didn’t jump on the train until two years later.

Don’t rock the boat!

I think that Israel is recognizing a potential strategic asset in the Morocco/Western Sahara phosphates. However, they are not doing God’s will. Western Sahara doesn’t deserve being occupied by the Moroccans. Except, in practice Israel’s move doesn’t make any difference from before. Both the EU, the US and Israel have for a very long time lived on the broken backs of the Western Saharans, and in the process we have carefully avoided to mention this little immoral and unrighteous Moroccan territorial claims, just to be able to buy the phosphates from Morocco and the by Morocco occupied territory of Western Sahara.

Before I go on, I want to emphasize the importance for Europe to have this policy of buying phosphates from Morocco and keeping quiet about the Moroccan occupation of Western Sahara.

Fact: If we hadn’t done that, we would also not have been able to harbor any refugees in our countries. Food would have been to scarce. And if we wouldn’t have been able to harbor refugees, we would not have been able to sustain an economic growth simultaneous with a declining domestic birth rate. Our politicians have decided that we must have a steady economic growth, and the price for that is inevitably immigration. You can think of it what you want, but it is a fact. We get richer as a nation from immigration. There is a reason why the richest countries in history also have had the most diversified population, and the poorest countries in history have had the most homogenous population. Though, some are more equal than others, because the rich and powerful gets much richer and powerful than the rest of us. This in the end leads to the downfall of civilizations.

So, do you recognize how this is an opportunity for Israel? They get their hand into the bread basket for the price of nothing. But nothing has really changed, business as usual and all that. And to top it off, they can claim success for the Abraham Accords. It is a smart move.

A headline on SR; Ekot on Sunday July 16 reads (translated):

Quote; ”EU and Tunisia sign new migration treaty.” End quote

It may have to do with Algerian gas exports to Europe via Tunisia and Italy. Italy taps a lot of the gas. Algeria/Tunisia and Morocco aren’t very sweet friends, albeit some of the Algerian gas pipelines traverse Moroccan territory into Spain. It’s complicated! Algerian gas exports to Europe had fallen by 22% by 2019. Guess it is going up again. It should be the ones tapping gas from this pipeline who have to proportionally absorb the migration flood emanating from this treaty!

How to smooth things over

Morocco/Western Sahara has got almost no Shia – <0.1 percent. Terror groups are ISIS, and Islamic State of Iraq previously referred to as al-Qaeda in Iraq. All FACTS according to the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2023-2024.

Israel Kasnett, TPS, excuse the state of Israel contrary to facts, on the online news site WIN, quote – and the following is one long quoute:

“Morocco shares a long border with Algeria, an ally of Iran, which directly threatens it militarily and through its support for Polisario separatism.”

In a significant step for Israel-Morocco relations, King Mohammed VI on Wednesday invited Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to visit the kingdom.

The invitation came after Israel officially recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara region earlier in the week.

The invitation came in the form of a warm, personal letter in which His Majesty thanked the State of Israel for its recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara. The visit will open up new possibilities for strengthening relations between the two countries, the king wrote.

Israel’s decision also holds immense significance due to its direct impact on the activities of Iran and its proxy Hezbollah in North Africa, disrupting their efforts to establish roots and expand their presence in the region.

Former Israeli National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat told the Tazpit Press Service that while he is aware that the steps towards recognizing Western Sahara took place over an extended period of time, “there is importance in Israel strengthening its position and presence on the African continent, especially at a time when Iran and its partners are trying to establish a foothold in Africa.”

Addressing why Israel waited until now to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty, he said he assumes that part of the time was required to examine the step’s possible consequences.

According to Ben-Shabbat, the recognition “is a proper and desirable step for several reasons. It reflects the deep trust between Israel and Morocco and Israel’s commitment to developing warm relations between the two countries and peoples.”

It “promotes a realistic and existing solution to this territory, which the United States has also recognized,” and “serves as a clear statement against the forces that oppose Morocco, supported by Iran and Algeria,” he said.

Ben-Shabbat said Israel can expect that ties between the two countries will improve even further now, adding that “despite the impressive progress in relations between Israel and Morocco since normalization, there is still great untapped potential in the economic, technological and political spheres.

“Additionally,” he said, “Morocco can play an important role in bringing other North African countries into the peace circle.”

Western Sahara shares a border with Mauritania, which Israel hopes will also normalize ties with it as part of the Abraham Accords.

The Algerian Angle

In an effort to maintain parity with its formidable regional counterpart, Algeria, Morocco is actively bolstering its defense investments. For numerous years, Rabat has perceived Algeria as a significant threat, particularly following the termination of diplomatic ties by Algiers in August 2011.

As part of this effort, Morocco has been preparing to acquire an undisclosed number of decommissioned Merkava tanks from Israel. The completion of this deal, anticipated within the coming months, will mark Morocco as the first foreign buyer of Merkava tanks.

According to a Foreign Policy article in June, “After [President Donald] Trump recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for Morocco normalizing its relationship with Israel, Tel Aviv and Rabat cemented the deal with a bevy of military and economic agreements. Algeria sees this new romance between Morocco, the United States, and Israel—three of its longtime enemies—as a threat to its security.”

In 2020, when Morocco reestablished diplomatic relations with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords, the Algerian government initiated a smear campaign against the kingdom, despite its reputation for tolerance and coexistence. However, at the same time, discreetly, Algeria engaged in undisclosed business dealings with Israel.

While Israel has no diplomatic relations with Algeria, Israel’s imports from the country stood at $21.38 million in 2022, according to the United Nations Comtrade database.

So while it refrains from officially recognizing Israel and publicly expresses animosity towards it, Algeria sells goods to Israel, facilitated by the ruling junta.

The Western Sahara is the primary source of contention between Morocco and Algeria. After Spain withdrew from the area in 1975, both Morocco and Mauritania claimed sovereignty over the territory. The Polisario Front, a movement representing the indigenous Sahrawi people, also declared the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) and sought independence.

Algeria supported the Polisario Front, providing it with military aid and training and diplomatic recognition. Morocco eventually gained control over most of the Western Sahara, while the Polisario Front maintained control over some parts, leading to a prolonged conflict.

The conflict between Morocco and Algeria has been fueled by ideological differences as well. Historically, Algeria aligned itself with socialist and anti-colonial movements, supporting self-determination struggles across Africa. Morocco, on the other hand, has maintained closer ties with Western powers and pursued a more pro-Western foreign policy.

The Iranian Threat

Dr. Yechiel Leiter, the director-general of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, also views Israel’s gesture to Morocco as positive.

“Morocco shares a long border with Algeria, an ally of Iran, which directly threatens it militarily and through its support for Polisario separatism. Were the Polisario to achieve its goal, Western Sahara would be an Algerian puppet state, contributing to strengthening an Iranian proxy,” Leiter told TPS.

He noted that the Iranian regime “supplies the Polisario with antiaircraft missiles and drones through the services of Algeria and Hezbollah. Together with the IRGC [Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps], Hezbollah is also training Polisario fighters. The Polisario itself has provided cover for al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), a terrorist group that is active in the Sahel region.”

Morocco also plays a key role in global food production, a major component of which is fertilizer, which requires phosphates. As Leiter points out, “A full 72% of the known phosphate deposits are found in Morocco, and 7% are in Western Sahara. Allowing moderate Morocco to be surrounded by hostile and destabilizing Iranian proxies could potentially have great impact on food security worldwide.”

“The implications of such a concentration of a critical component of the world’s food supply are sobering,” he said. “Were 7% of the world’s known phosphate deposits (in Western Sahara) to fall into the hands of a sovereign entity under the direct influence of Iran, the ramifications could be ominous. But what is far more threatening would be the influence brought to bear on a moderate Morocco with its overwhelming control of the world’s food supply, surrounded by hostile and destabilizing Iranian proxies.”

According to Leiter, “Hezbollah is already deeply involved in West Africa, and the last thing the region needs is another dysfunctional state under the influence of the world’s most significant terror and illicit drug trade organization.”

“Morocco stands against the fanatical Islam exported by the ayatollahs and their proxies,” he said. Its battle against the Polisario and terrorism “is also Israel’s battle.”

Source: World Israel News (WIN)

Roger Klang

Thank you and see you later alligator, at a while crocodile!

Israel recognizes Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/eu-och-tunisien-signerar-nytt-migrationsavtal

Israel’s recognition of Western Sahara a blow to Iran

The Nile river

Sunni-Muslim Sudan is the next country together with Morocco and Oman to be on the Israeli list of charm offensives, according to the news site United With Israel from the 13th of October 2021.

Of course it helps that Israel can become a conciliator between Sudan and Egypt concerning the fresh water from the Nile and dam projects in Sudan. And why do Israel want to be friends with Morocco? Two words; precious Phosphates, needed by the US farmers. And Oman is strategically located at the inlet to the Persian gulf. That’s it, at least as far as I understand it.

A reiteration: A good two thirds of the world production of phosphates are mined in China, the United States and Morocco/Western Sahara. Morocco and the, by Morocco occupied Western Sahara account for 30 percent of the world export market. US phosphate reserves will last for nearly 30 years for US use only. The United States does not export phosphate ore. Neither does China. The world’s phosphate reserves are estimated to be around 15 billion tonnes, which is sufficient for the world’s consumption for 90 years with current technology, according to the US Geological Survey. Phosphate production in the world will not come to a critical low level before the world’s oil reserves peter out. Thus, phosphate production in Morocco/Western Sahara is strategically secondary, or should be. But this did not prevent the US from making a bilateral trade deal with Morocco in 2006. The European Union didn’t jump on the train until two years later. And the early US bilateral trade deal with Morocco is also a spoiler for us Europeans. Are the US and Israel thus heading for a war on Iran in order to hog the oil from the Persian Gulf? Short answer, Yes. Long answer, don’t forget about Taiwan and the Chinese ambitions.

Also, UAE and Bahrain have been charmed by the Israelis already. The US is going to get a severe oil shortage sometime around 2024. The US wants war, Israel wants war, not necessarily for the same reason, short term. There is going to be a war against Iran, unless Iran complies with their then master the US. Do you think that it is a coincidence that the Arab states, Saudi-Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and UAE suddenly changed their negative policies into an including policy on israel? No, the Arabs on the Arabian peninsula in particular would all too happily see an American and Israeli war against Iran. Iran isn’t just Israel’s worst enemy, it is in practice the Arabs’ worst enemy too. They feel very threatened by Iran. They themselves do not want to fight Iran but would happily fuel the war and support the US use of the American bases in Qatar, Bahrain and UAE.

Saudi-Arabia knows they are not ready to fight Iran, and they probably never will be ready for a fight against Iran. Israel on the other hand is ready for a war. But I am sceptical about how it could be possible for the Israelis to strike the bunker systems at Mashad in Iran where the strategic nuclear forces will be located, at least with the Israeli Air Force without help from the US.

A quote from a seemingly well informed Israeli: ”Indeed, it won’t be easy for the IDF. They do have some bunker-buster technology, but what they need for the Iranian deep, heavily armored and hardened bunkers is re-entrant hypervelocity Mach 10+ bunkerbusters. Those are launched from space and only the US has that capability. The good news is that these are, due to the extreme speed, horrendously powerful. Although completely conventional, one single penetration hit has the equivalent explosive damage as that from a medium-yield nuclear weapon.”

Does the US really have such a space weapon? Who knows, they certainly have become more restricted with publishing information about their military technical progress and achievements.

Source:

United With Israel

Iran Vs. the United States; Lesson fortyseven

This bromance between the Israelis and the Arabs lately prior to the US presidential election in 2020, that Trump lost, was all to superficial from the Arab side. I knew it was too good to be true. Now the Saudis seem to flip-flop. But why? Because there was going to be a war under Trump, aginst Iran, it was definitely decided in Washington D.C. a couple of years ago or so. Proof? I have no decisive proof, except for that the CIA Factbook unintentionally reveals that the US is going to run out of oil on its own territory at some point in time in this decade. But think of it this way:

The only reason why Saudi-Arabia ever reached out to Israel was because of Washington’s elaborate plans to push Iran into making a limited attack on American forces in the Persian Gulf or elsewhere, so that the US gets an excuse to start the war. That is why the US, already under Obama’s administration, had to withdraw from Afghanistan in such a hurry, to free troops for the coming war against Iran. It is also why the US at one time started showing interest in Iraq again and wanted to increase its troops there. The Saudis knew that under Trump they had to tolerate the Israelis and they welcomed Israel’s contribution in the coming war against the Saudis’ arch enemy Iran. To the Saudis, Iran is a bigger threat than Israel. And they are. Now when it looks like if the not so Israel friendly Joe Biden is going to be president in January, the Saudis turn on Israel with some uncertainty. The rest of the Gulf states will probably follow suit now that the Arabs are hoping for a war led by Biden against Iran.

It is important even for the sitting U.S. administration, that Biden doesn’t get bogged down in domestic bickering about him being a warmonger, which is why there were news reports (leaks) coming out from the white house in November 2020 about Trump wanting a war against Iran. Israel cannot be shut out of the deal by the Saudis, because they will not succeed then. Whether the Saudis realize this or not is another question. The Saudis had in late 2020 opened up for civilian Israeli air traffick over Saudi-Arabia, but they wanted to stop this after Trump lost the US presidential election when it looked like if Trump was defeated for sure. World Israel News quotes; ”In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia has allowed a precedent-setting move for Israeli planes to use its airspace on their way to the UAE and Bahrain, and in recent months there has also been harsh criticism of the Palestinians by senior Saudi officials.” World Israel News, November 23, 2020.

The Saudis’ foreign minister denied, according to another article in the web-based WIN, that Netanyahu participated in a meeting that happened in November 2020. ”No such meeting occurred. The only officials present were American [Pompeo] and Saudi [the Saudi crown prince]” he tweeted.

But if the US is going to provoke a war, when will this war take place? I even know the answer to that. It’ll be within a four year period, if they can succeed with their shady sceme. The aircraft carrier ship dubbed USS Nimitz is patrolling the waters of the Persian Gulf since late November 2020. Since 2012 Nimitz is the oldest serving carrier in the US Navy. Due to the big stakes of America’s future, with severe oil shortage, it is possible that the Trump administration are prepared to sacrifice USS Nimitz if it means that the Iranians, conveniently enough to the American administration, will start the war by attacking USS Nimitz. This is not very controversial, it is something they have to consider for and in any possible future war. They have done it before, in the Tonkin bay, but with smaller ships. A World Israel News quote:

”US promised UAE it would not greenlight Israeli sovereignty until 2024” Quote from a WIN headline September 13, 2020.

The article states among other things;

”The 2024 time frame lines up with the four-year window within which Israel is obligated to negotiate with the Palestinians under the Trump administration’s Mideast peace plan.”

That is their time-plan. Peace means war, war means peace.

But there was an obstacle and the name of the country is Qatar. Qatar had been put under a covert commercial and political blockade by land sea and air since January 2017 by Saudi-Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt (from the first month of never-started-any-wars and nominated-to-the-Nobel-peace-prize Trump administration), till January 5 2021 (from the first month of the lets-go-back-to-the-nuclear-deal Biden administration) Why? Qatar had to much relations with Iran due to the two countries shared gas field in the Persian Gulf. The US initially supported the blockade, since the Trump administration wanted to push Iran into the corner and force them to make a limited military attack on American forces. Qatar stood in the way, albeit there is an US Airbase in Qatar. Qatar’s answer to the blockade was to strengthen ties with Russia, Turkey and China. Still not convinced?

Quote WIN December 22, 2020: ”He [senior Trump Advisor Jared Kushner] also said he expects Morocco to join an investment fund created by Israel, the U.S. and the UAE for investing in projects in the Middle East.

“There are several countries in the region that have approached us for projects”, he said. He added that the Democrats have signaled that the incoming Biden administration will continue to advance these business developments.”

I let the quotes speak for themselves. Note that the Biden administration at first seemed to have halted the war plans from the former Trump administration. It looked like if secret war preparations were being made public, and this makes it possible for people like me to find confirmatory information. I wasn’t in the dark before, but the fog of war was thick.

Press stop!

American bombers flew into Syria at dawn on the 26th of february 2021, and the target was an Iranian-backed Shiite militia group in Syria, a group that almost two weeks ago counterproductively, as usual, carried out a rocket attack on an US base in Iraq. The Biden administration is greatful. Because right after or the following day, the Biden administration slaps some of the minions of the Saudi Crown Prince and lets the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman himself off the hook for the gruel killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

”The relationship with Saudi Arabia is larger than an individual”, says Foreign Minister Tony Blinken.

So it is business as usual then! I knew that Biden wasn’t a freshman, so it is no use being surprised. But at least the Biden administration intends to make sure that such gruel murders don’t happen again.

”The United States will not tolerate threats or attacks from Saudi Arabia outside its borders against activists, dissidents or journalists,” Tony Blinken said a couple of hours after the air raid. Convenient.

If I had any doubts before I don’t have them any longer. There is going to be a war. I am writing this in february 2021. If there is going to be a war, please God let the US win, because there are no good exit options from a third world war for us Nordic people! At least they have a sober and intelligent chauffeur now. It is important that we Swedes remain pragmatic. Never have a small country known so much but being able to do so little. Hence the little prayer here.

Sources:

Report: US promised UAE it would not greenlight Israeli sovereignty until 2024

Netanyahu held secret weekend meeting with Saudi prince, Pompeo

Report: No peace with Saudi Arabia until King Salman is gone

Saudi foreign minister denies meeting with Israelis happened

Saudi prince blasts Israel for imprisoning Palestinians in ‘concentration camps’

More peace deals may still be in the works before Trump’s term ends, senior official says

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/amerikanska-flygbombningar-mot-iranstodd-milis-i-syrien

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/usa-infor-sanktioner-mot-saudier-efter-khashoggi-rapport

Iran and the S-300 surface-to-air missile system. Lesson fortyfour

Russia has sold or is selling S-300 air defense systems to Iran.

Iran has at least five bases on the Strait of Hormuz. The bases are located at Bandar Abbas, Bandar Lengeh, Sirik, Kish Island and Abu Musa, the latter two being islands.

The Americans have several air bases near or in the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. The bases are called Isa Airbase (Bahrain), Al Udeid (Qatar) and Al Minhad and Al Dhafra (UAE).

In addition, the Americans have a naval base in Bahrain, and one on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, and a base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa. They also have a large base with combat personnel on the British island of Ascension 2,500 km west of Africa halfway to Brazil in South America.

According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the sale of the S-300 air defense system will stabilize the situation in the Middle East. But more likely it will do just the opposite, destabilizing the situation in the Middle East. Israel felt an urge to take action against Iranian nuclear facilities in the near future before Iran had deployed air defense systems. The Iranian news organization Tasnim reported on July 19, 2016 that Iran had obtained the first S-300 PMU-2 air defense systems which Russia sold to them.

If Israel does not strike while they can, if Iran becomes a nuclear weapons country with operational nuclear weapons with sufficient range and accuracy, then because of the Iranian mullahs’ unpredictability, it could turn into a disaster for Israel, or at least develop into a cold war between Israel and Iran. The Iranians have not been late in involving other stakeholders in the conflict, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, which risks tipping over the balance of power to Israel’s disadvantage and strengthen Iran’s position in the region. That would probably lead to a new Arab war against Israel. It could also mean that more states in the region would try to develop nuclear weapons.

Nor is there anything to guarantee that Russia will not sell the nuclear weapons carrier missiles to Iran, once Iran has received and deployed its air defense systems. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasizes that the weapons are defensive and pose no threat to neighboring countries, including Israel. Israeli intelligence minister Yuval Steinitz made a statement; “Instead of demanding that Iran cease its terrorist acts in the Middle East and the world, it now allows the country to acquire advanced weapons that will only lead to increased aggression.”

Iran also supplies crude oil to Russia in exchange for grain and building materials. In this way, we are already being affected in our part of the world as Russia exports its surplus of oil to strengthen its economy. The so-called P5 + 1 group, consisting of the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany, reached an agreement in July 2015 on Iran’s nuclear program, which meant that Russia and Iran stood as winners. President Putin said in a statement on the Kremlin’s website that the world could take a relieved breath. In Israel, the sentiments were of another kind. The country’s Prime Minister Netanyahu did not mince words and called the agreement a big mistake of historical proportions. The sanctions against Iran were supposed to be lifted. The agreement meant that;

A) Iran would scale down its nuclear program while opening the doors for UN inspectors to all its nuclear facilities, including military ones.
B) The arms embargo against Iran was stated to remain for five years.
C) In addition, according to the IAEA, a roadmap had been signed to investigate Iran’s previous nuclear activities.
D) But even if a contract was in the clear, it would take months before it could take effect. The US Congress and Iran’s parliament would now approve the agreement.
E) The West’s sanctions against Iran, which isolated the country financially, could be lifted and several billion dollars of Iran’s frozen assets thawed thereafter.

Whether or not the sanctions under Obama really were lifted is an assessment question for anyone to figure out for himself.

Source; Euromaidan Press, April 2015; SR; Ekot, July 2015

Homework:

Do you think that Hezbollah with Iran’s help can tip the balance in the Middle East? And if they do, will there be another “Yom Kippur”? If you don’t know what Yom Kippur is I suggest that you read up about it. But I can tell you that it was the Arab war against the Israelis in October 1973 and it is also a Jewish Holiday, which they named the war after since the Arabs attacked Israel on the last day of the yearly Jewish fasting. The Jews were taken by surprise back then in the year of 1973.

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden