Sunni-Muslim Sudan is the next country together with Morocco and Oman to be on the Israeli list of charm offensives, according to the news site United With Israel from the 13th of October 2021.
Of course it helps that Israel can become a conciliator between Sudan and Egypt concerning the fresh water from the Nile and dam projects in Sudan. And why do Israel want to be friends with Morocco? Two words; precious Phosphates, needed by the US farmers. And Oman is strategically located at the inlet to the Persian gulf. That’s it, at least as far as I understand it.
A reiteration: A good two thirds of the world production of phosphates are mined in China, the United States and Morocco/Western Sahara. Morocco and the, by Morocco occupied Western Sahara account for 30 percent of the world export market. US phosphate reserves will last for nearly 30 years for US use only. The United States does not export phosphate ore. Neither does China. The world’s phosphate reserves are estimated to be around 15 billion tonnes, which is sufficient for the world’s consumption for 90 years with current technology, according to the US Geological Survey. Phosphate production in the world will not come to a critical low level before the world’s oil reserves peter out. Thus, phosphate production in Morocco/Western Sahara is strategically secondary, or should be. But this did not prevent the US from making a bilateral trade deal with Morocco in 2006. The European Union didn’t jump on the train until two years later. And the early US bilateral trade deal with Morocco is also a spoiler for us Europeans. Are the US and Israel thus heading for a war on Iran in order to hog the oil from the Persian Gulf? Short answer, Yes. Long answer, don’t forget about Taiwan and the Chinese ambitions.
Also, UAE and Bahrain have been charmed by the Israelis already. The US is going to get a severe oil shortage sometime around 2024. The US wants war, Israel wants war, not necessarily for the same reason, short term. There is going to be a war against Iran, unless Iran complies with their then master the US. Do you think that it is a coincidence that the Arab states, Saudi-Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and UAE suddenly changed their negative policies into an including policy on israel? No, the Arabs on the Arabian peninsula in particular would all too happily see an American and Israeli war against Iran. Iran isn’t just Israel’s worst enemy, it is in practice the Arabs’ worst enemy too. They feel very threatened by Iran. They themselves do not want to fight Iran but would happily fuel the war and support the US use of the American bases in Qatar, Bahrain and UAE.
Saudi-Arabia knows they are not ready to fight Iran, and they probably never will be ready for a fight against Iran. Israel on the other hand is ready for a war. But I am sceptical about how it could be possible for the Israelis to strike the bunker systems at Mashad in Iran where the strategic nuclear forces will be located, at least with the Israeli Air Force without help from the US.
A quote from a seemingly well informed Israeli: ”Indeed, it won’t be easy for the IDF. They do have some bunker-buster technology, but what they need for the Iranian deep, heavily armored and hardened bunkers is re-entrant hypervelocity Mach 10+ bunkerbusters. Those are launched from space and only the US has that capability. The good news is that these are, due to the extreme speed, horrendously powerful. Although completely conventional, one single penetration hit has the equivalent explosive damage as that from a medium-yield nuclear weapon.”
Does the US really have such a space weapon? Who knows, they certainly have become more restricted with publishing information about their military technical progress and achievements.
This bromance between the Israelis and the Arabs lately prior to the US presidential election in 2020, that Trump lost, was all to superficial from the Arab side. I knew it was too good to be true. Now the Saudis seem to flip-flop. But why? Because there was going to be a war under Trump, aginst Iran, it was definitely decided in Washington D.C. a couple of years ago or so. Proof? I have no decisive proof, except for that the CIA Factbook unintentionally reveals that the US is going to run out of oil on its own territory at some point in time in this decade. But think of it this way:
The only reason why Saudi-Arabia ever reached out to Israel was because of Washington’s elaborate plans to push Iran into making a limited attack on American forces in the Persian Gulf or elsewhere, so that the US gets an excuse to start the war. That is why the US, already under Obama’s administration, had to withdraw from Afghanistan in such a hurry, to free troops for the coming war against Iran. It is also why the US at one time started showing interest in Iraq again and wanted to increase its troops there. The Saudis knew that under Trump they had to tolerate the Israelis and they welcomed Israel’s contribution in the coming war against the Saudis’ arch enemy Iran. To the Saudis, Iran is a bigger threat than Israel. And they are. Now when it looks like if the not so Israel friendly Joe Biden is going to be president in January, the Saudis turn on Israel with some uncertainty. The rest of the Gulf states will probably follow suit now that the Arabs are hoping for a war led by Biden against Iran.
It is important even for the sitting U.S. administration, that Biden doesn’t get bogged down in domestic bickering about him being a warmonger, which is why there were news reports (leaks) coming out from the white house in November 2020 about Trump wanting a war against Iran. Israel cannot be shut out of the deal by the Saudis, because they will not succeed then. Whether the Saudis realize this or not is another question. The Saudis had in late 2020 opened up for civilian Israeli air traffick over Saudi-Arabia, but they wanted to stop this after Trump lost the US presidential election when it looked like if Trump was defeated for sure. World Israel News quotes; ”In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia has allowed a precedent-setting move for Israeli planes to use its airspace on their way to the UAE and Bahrain, and in recent months there has also been harsh criticism of the Palestinians by senior Saudi officials.” World Israel News, November 23, 2020.
The Saudis’ foreign minister denied, according to another article in the web-based WIN, that Netanyahu participated in a meeting that happened in November 2020. ”No such meeting occurred. The only officials present were American [Pompeo] and Saudi [the Saudi crown prince]” he tweeted.
But if the US is going to provoke a war, when will this war take place? I even know the answer to that. It’ll be within a four year period, if they can succeed with their shady sceme. The aircraft carrier ship dubbed USS Nimitz is patrolling the waters of the Persian Gulf since late November 2020. Since 2012 Nimitz is the oldest serving carrier in the US Navy. Due to the big stakes of America’s future, with severe oil shortage, it is possible that the Trump administration are prepared to sacrifice USS Nimitz if it means that the Iranians, conveniently enough to the American administration, will start the war by attacking USS Nimitz. This is not very controversial, it is something they have to consider for and in any possible future war. They have done it before, in the Tonkin bay, but with smaller ships. A World Israel News quote:
”US promised UAE it would not greenlight Israeli sovereignty until 2024” Quote from a WIN headline September 13, 2020.
The article states among other things;
”The 2024 time frame lines up with the four-year window within which Israel is obligated to negotiate with the Palestinians under the Trump administration’s Mideast peace plan.”
That is their time-plan. Peace means war, war means peace.
But there was an obstacle and the name of the country is Qatar. Qatar had been put under a covert commercial and political blockade by land sea and air since January 2017 by Saudi-Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt (from the first month of never-started-any-wars and nominated-to-the-Nobel-peace-prize Trump administration), till January 5 2021 (from the first month of the lets-go-back-to-the-nuclear-deal Biden administration) Why? Qatar had to much relations with Iran due to the two countries shared gas field in the Persian Gulf. The US initially supported the blockade, since the Trump administration wanted to push Iran into the corner and force them to make a limited military attack on American forces. Qatar stood in the way, albeit there is an US Airbase in Qatar. Qatar’s answer to the blockade was to strengthen ties with Russia, Turkey and China. Still not convinced?
Quote WIN December 22, 2020: ”He [senior Trump Advisor Jared Kushner] also said he expects Morocco to join an investment fund created by Israel, the U.S. and the UAE for investing in projects in the Middle East.
“There are several countries in the region that have approached us for projects”, he said. He added that the Democrats have signaled that the incoming Biden administration will continue to advance these business developments.”
I let the quotes speak for themselves. Note that the Biden administration at first seemed to have halted the war plans from the former Trump administration. It looked like if secret war preparations were being made public, and this makes it possible for people like me to find confirmatory information. I wasn’t in the dark before, but the fog of war was thick.
Press stop!
American bombers flew into Syria at dawn on the 26th of february 2021, and the target was an Iranian-backed Shiite militia group in Syria, a group that almost two weeks ago counterproductively, as usual, carried out a rocket attack on an US base in Iraq. The Biden administration is greatful. Because right after or the following day, the Biden administration slaps some of the minions of the Saudi Crown Prince and lets the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman himself off the hook for the gruel killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
”The relationship with Saudi Arabia is larger than an individual”, says Foreign Minister Tony Blinken.
So it is business as usual then! I knew that Biden wasn’t a freshman, so it is no use being surprised. But at least the Biden administration intends to make sure that such gruel murders don’t happen again.
”The United States will not tolerate threats or attacks from Saudi Arabia outside its borders against activists, dissidents or journalists,” Tony Blinken said a couple of hours after the air raid. Convenient.
If I had any doubts before I don’t have them any longer. There is going to be a war. I am writing this in february 2021. If there is going to be a war, please God let the US win, because there are no good exit options from a third world war for us Nordic people! At least they have a sober and intelligent chauffeur now. It is important that we Swedes remain pragmatic. Never have a small country known so much but being able to do so little. Hence the little prayer here.
Russia has sold or is selling S-300 air defense systems to Iran.
Iran has at least five bases on the Strait of Hormuz. The bases are located at Bandar Abbas, Bandar Lengeh, Sirik, Kish Island and Abu Musa, the latter two being islands.
The Americans have several air bases near or in the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. The bases are called Isa Airbase (Bahrain), Al Udeid (Qatar) and Al Minhad and Al Dhafra (UAE).
In addition, the Americans have a naval base in Bahrain, and one on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, and a base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa. They also have a large base with combat personnel on the British island of Ascension 2,500 km west of Africa halfway to Brazil in South America.
According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the sale of the S-300 air defense system will stabilize the situation in the Middle East. But more likely it will do just the opposite, destabilizing the situation in the Middle East. Israel felt an urge to take action against Iranian nuclear facilities in the near future before Iran had deployed air defense systems. The Iranian news organization Tasnim reported on July 19, 2016 that Iran had obtained the first S-300 PMU-2 air defense systems which Russia sold to them.
If Israel does not strike while they can, if Iran becomes a nuclear weapons country with operational nuclear weapons with sufficient range and accuracy, then because of the Iranian mullahs’ unpredictability, it could turn into a disaster for Israel, or at least develop into a cold war between Israel and Iran. The Iranians have not been late in involving other stakeholders in the conflict, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, which risks tipping over the balance of power to Israel’s disadvantage and strengthen Iran’s position in the region. That would probably lead to a new Arab war against Israel. It could also mean that more states in the region would try to develop nuclear weapons.
Nor is there anything to guarantee that Russia will not sell the nuclear weapons carrier missiles to Iran, once Iran has received and deployed its air defense systems. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasizes that the weapons are defensive and pose no threat to neighboring countries, including Israel. Israeli intelligence minister Yuval Steinitz made a statement; “Instead of demanding that Iran cease its terrorist acts in the Middle East and the world, it now allows the country to acquire advanced weapons that will only lead to increased aggression.”
Iran also supplies crude oil to Russia in exchange for grain and building materials. In this way, we are already being affected in our part of the world as Russia exports its surplus of oil to strengthen its economy. The so-called P5 + 1 group, consisting of the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany, reached an agreement in July 2015 on Iran’s nuclear program, which meant that Russia and Iran stood as winners. President Putin said in a statement on the Kremlin’s website that the world could take a relieved breath. In Israel, the sentiments were of another kind. The country’s Prime Minister Netanyahu did not mince words and called the agreement a big mistake of historical proportions. The sanctions against Iran were supposed to be lifted. The agreement meant that;
A) Iran would scale down its nuclear program while opening the doors for UN inspectors to all its nuclear facilities, including military ones.
B) The arms embargo against Iran was stated to remain for five years.
C) In addition, according to the IAEA, a roadmap had been signed to investigate Iran’s previous nuclear activities.
D) But even if a contract was in the clear, it would take months before it could take effect. The US Congress and Iran’s parliament would now approve the agreement.
E) The West’s sanctions against Iran, which isolated the country financially, could be lifted and several billion dollars of Iran’s frozen assets thawed thereafter.
Whether or not the sanctions under Obama really were lifted is an assessment question for anyone to figure out for himself.
Source; Euromaidan Press, April 2015; SR; Ekot, July 2015
Homework:
Do you think that Hezbollah with Iran’s help can tip the balance in the Middle East? And if they do, will there be another “Yom Kippur”? If you don’t know what Yom Kippur is I suggest that you read up about it. But I can tell you that it was the Arab war against the Israelis in October 1973 and it is also a Jewish Holiday, which they named the war after since the Arabs attacked Israel on the last day of the yearly Jewish fasting. The Jews were taken by surprise back then in the year of 1973.
Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden
The strategist cowboy 