Contemporary overall strategies for the great powers. Lesson two

A work hypothesis

If you followed my first lesson you will recognize that I sometimes repeat myself here. The information I am repeating is vital to understand the world. But I will to my utmost try not to continue doing that unnecessarily.

The proxy war that the Saudis and the United States are enforcing in Yemen with the destruction of the Hodeida port is all about safe passage for merchant ships in the Gulf of Aden and the northwest of the Indian Ocean. The Iranian regime is said to be the instigator of the unrest in Yemen.

The long expected American war against Iran may have already started in 2019. But it didn’t start from zero, it has been escalating for a long time. Iran is very much responsible for the belligerent situation in Syria between them and Israel and the US (other fighting nations and ethnic groups here omitted). And president Trump is a friend of Israel. So, yes, he is a cog and he is the biggest cog in the US war machine. I think that it still revolves mostly around China. The Iranians, the Chinese, or maybe both regimes supposed shenanigans in Yemen happened because they wanted to boost the Somali piracy in order to shut down or hinder transit for western merchant ships with the destination east USA and Europe sailing through the Red Sea.

And probably the Chinese conspires in the Persian Gulf region since the Chinese buy oil from both Saudi-Arabia and Iran and every other country in the Persian Gulf that sells oil.

And they are suspected of instigating the Somali pirate activity in the west Indian Ocean, probably by arranging for the Somali pirates to use the port in Hodeida in Yemen for negotiations with the shipping companies, negotiations that could take up to a year for every hijacked ship. Cause I know of no hijacked Chinese merchant ships.

If you Think that the Yemeni people got the short end of the stick, consider what would have happened if the Maritime sea routes to Europe and eastern USA would have been cut off.

Question: Why would China want to cut their own supply lines and trade routes? The answer is, they don’t want to cut them! They want to monopolize them.

And if you think that it is easier to sneak into the Red Sea passed the American base in Djibouti by the African horn, with a skiff with a fabric rooftop, loaded with ten men armed to the teath who are clearly not out on a fishing trip, than it is to sneak in with a large merchant ship you’d better think again. They surely prefer not to challenge the American Navy with their hunting vessels, but they feel safe sailing into the Red Sea with their booty ship. They know a merchant ship wont be sunk by the Americans and they have hostages on their way to Hodeida in west Yemen. The American Navy and Airforce are ill equipped for fighting piracy. Hodeida had to be bombed.

The so-called Saudi-led coalition, which the United States is an important part of, supports the legitimate authority in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition is trying to take control of the important port in the city of Hodeida, which is located by the Red Sea. The city was controlled by the Houthi militias in 2018.

The trade routs at sea goes from the Middle East, eastern Africa and East Asia into the Red Sea and through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean Sea and further up to western Europe and the eastern United States. The merchant ships also go in the other direction.

It is possible to extend the sea routes around South-Africa but it is more common for ships to become wrecked or lose containers due to high sea. (But it is still a much trafficked sea route, for the South-Americans.) Also, the distance is considerably longer and most European and North-American merchant ships may not even be built to cover the extra distance without filling up on extra fuel oil for their engines, and China is the number one player in Africa and around Africa’s coast band. In Tanzania alone there are just as many Chinese as there are Africans. Tanzania is tangibly conveniently localized at the east-coast neighboring Uganda, for the Chinese to get an edge in gaining access to Uganda’s untapped oil reserves.

But it may be that the governments and shipping companies in the west have just made a cold hammered economic calculation and/or risk assessment and come to the conclusion that it is not a long term viable option to sail around South-Africa since you would have to add another 30+ days to the voyage.

Somali pirates have begun to use mother ships to significantly expand their reach. They now also use rocket launchers.

When comparing the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2015 with the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019, Uganda is not included as a state in the later issue. This Uganda has in common with Japan and Paraguay, which are also not included in this later issue.

Uganda, located in Africa’s inland 1,200 km southwest of Djibouti, sits according to oil prospects from 2008 on oil in the ground that has been estimated to be greater than or equal to that of the oil-fields in Saudi- Arabia and the Persian Gulf. “Ugandan oil reserves can correspond to the total oil reserves of all of the Gulf countries put together”, according to Sally Kornfeld, analyst at the Office of Fossil Energy at the United States Department of Energy. Planning of the construction of refining capacity and pipelines are underway. There is also the question of what oil quality they have found in Uganda. Is the oil suitable for making gasoline from? It’s a big deal if it is.

Who will put their hands on that oil? The main reason, which is related to ”Freedom of navigation” in the South China Sea waters, why the Americans are putting pressure on the Chinese in the South China Sea right now is Uganda, and their decision on who will get to buy their oil is crucial to what’s going to happen in the world in the future. Since the US and their allies merchant ships, oil tankers and the US Navy, frequently traffic the South China Sea waters, Freedom of navigation is obviously important. He who controls the choke-Points i.e. the straits in southeast Asia, is likely to be the number one buyer of the Ugandan oil. It is either going to be the US or it’s going to be China.

It contradicts the view on the objective for the US Department of Defense, but the United States would rather see a full-scale war on China sooner rather than later. It actually is self-evident. A weak opponent is better than a strong opponent, if they have to fight in the first place.

It is possible to defeat Afghanistan in war. The day when the Chinese consider themselves to be strong enough to project their power-language in other parts of the world than China’s mainland, Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang and the South China Sea, they are likely to begin with completely crushing the pride of the Afghans, to overthrow the country so that it can be used as a grain storage and a logistic hub and springboard for invading eastern Europe. In order for it to be possible, the Chinese must first make the country of Afghanistan their private brothel as once the Mongols did before them in history. This will cause in particular eastern Europeans and western Europeans to cheer, and that’s all in good order. The problem is, as I mentioned, that Afghanistan will only be a Chinese springboard for invading Europe, which will be the main objective for the Chinese.

But first, the Chinese must establish the Silk Road Economic Belt and secure their military transit routes through a number of countries and in multiple places. Beijing wishes transit and military access to the Malacca Strait and other straits in southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea as well as the Persian Gulf to name the most important examples. These sea-routes are also part of the Silk Road Economic Belt.

Donald Trump and the United States do not wish to see a strong maritime China. The company Genie Oil and Gas will extract the oil below the Golan Heights. Trump wants to protect the shipping-lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, Malacca Strait, Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait, the Indian Ocean, the Arab Sea, the Red Sea, the Suez Canal and the Gibraltar Strait by forcing the Chinese to invade eastern Europe by land and not the United States allied (or allies) in western Europe by sea and certainly not presumably oil-rich Israel.

A Chinese invasion will come at some time, we just do not know when although we know that it will not come in the next few years. The United States powerful nuclear arsenal guarantees that the Chinese will not try to invade the United States mainland. You may think that invasion scenarios should be a thing of the past, but it is only we westerners who think like so.

According to my work hypothesis, Trump is doing his best to sidestep and juggle with various statements in the purpose of throwing gravel in the eyes of people and nations to appear as Syria’s savior in need when it’s really about safe trade-routs for merchant ships and countering Iran and China. So keep an eye on the ball! But I would have done the same practical things in Trumps seat. Though I would at the same time have told the truth to my people and to the world.

Vladimir Putin wants to push the Chinese attack routs as far down to the Indian Ocean as they possibly can. Kremlin Russians are afraid of losing influence to China over Azerbaijan and Russia’s narrow southern buffer front. There in the Caspian Sea Russia and Azerbaijan have major oil reserves.

India is the third largest crude oil importer in the world. The Indians want to avert the Chinese interest in the other direction to Argentina, the Falklands and South-America.

Chile and Argentina together form all of the southern parts of South-America. Chile is located by the Pacific Ocean and Argentina is located by the Atlantic Ocean. Chile is in the US pocket and Argentina is largely in China’s pocket. Both Chile, and Argentina in particular, have plenty of raw materials.

 

Homework:

Have a map in front of you when doing your homework today!

Can you see any possibilities today for the Chinese to project enough power, with only two available air-craft carriers, in the South China Sea and extensively into the Indian Ocean to confine the US in order to control who Uganda shall sell their oil to?

Both the US Navy and the Chinese navy each have access to a safe port and then some in the Indian Ocean. Chinese port (civilian for now) is on the large island of Sri Lanka just south of India. American port is on a small island in the middle of the Indian Ocean.

The Chinese reportedly have a port and an airfield in the southwest of Pakistan in Gwadar in the Gulf of Oman. But the Americans have airbases in Kuwait (semi-american), Qatar and UAE and a port in Bahrain in the Persian Gulf.

Both China and the US have ports and air-strips in Djibouti by the African Horn.

Consider the Malacca Strait south of the China Sea. What can you find out about the by Malacca Strait surrounding countries? Who has the means to control the Malacca Strait? Is it perhaps Malaysia even?

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

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The importance of Uganda in big politics. Lesson one

The following is evidence based:

Differences between CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2015 and CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 are that in the latter version there are three major countries omitted – Paraguay, Uganda and Japan. These three big countries are the only big real countries that are omitted in the 2018-2019 edition of CIAs World Factbook.

1. Paraguay was omitted because in part the country is involved in and is a hub for arms smuggling, mony laundry, narcotic traffics. They have this in common with most of the Latin American countries. But, and above all, the support of terrorist organizations by possibly branches in the government differ Paraguay from the rest of Latin America. There doesn’t seem to be any effort from the authorities in Paraguay to end it.
2. Uganda is located in Africas south inland 1,200 km southwest of Djibouti near Africas horn. The country was omitted in CIA World Factbook 2018-2019 because they are sitting on conciderable amounts of oil reserves, according to oil-prospects made already in 2008.
3. Japan is not included because Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has deliberately been approaching his country closer to Russia. Among other things, he has met with Vladimir Putin under cozy forms, and Vladimir Putin has opened up for a solution to ongoing border disputes about a few islands north of Japan in the Kuriles. CIA in their book omitted the country of Japan for grand political reasons and not geo-strategical reasons. Japan lacks raw materials, besides REE i.e. Rear Earth Elements which are used in electronics and lasers and such, and they seek a stable raw material supplier of, for example, oil from the Russian Far East. Also, supplies of food from Russia to feed the Japanese population should be an end goal for Japan. There is a fear in the US that Japan will approach Russia and China even more so that they will create an axis. It is not necessarily a rational fear.

The CIA punishes Japan and Paraguay, or sends a signal to them, by omitting them from the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019.

The dispute in the South China Sea is mainly about who is going to be able to control the sea routes not least to the Ugandan oil which has potential to show that it surpass the collective oil reservs off all the OPEC-countries put together. ”Uganda’s oil reserves can match that of the OPEC-countries” says Sally Kornfeld, an analytic for the division of fossil fuels at US Energy Department. The planning and construction for the extraction of oil and building of pipelines in Uganda continues. You can look up Uganda on Wikipedia and read for yourself.

If you do not control the shipping-lanes to Africa chances are very high that you will not get to buy the Ugandan oil. The straits of Malacca, Sunda and Lombok are in the US pocket right now. Therefore the US has the upper hand. But the Chinese are making extensive efforts to gain influence in Malaysia. Among other things they are building four artificial islands in and near the Malacca strait complete with a 700,000 people city as a resort place for the Chinese and a port that can harbor an aircraft carrier and all.

Australia’s importance as a US allied buffert state and a potential base and build up area and whete, corn, dairy and meat storehouse cannot be underestimated.

 

Homework:

Why do you think the country of Uganda was omitted in the paper edition of the CIA World Factbook 2018-2019? Think! You know they have got large amounts of oil. Who benefits from that these oil reserves are coming out on the market? Who has an interest in that affairs with Uganda are being kept covert? Or is the omission a punishment for that Ugandan authorities wants to sell the oil to the wrong part i.e. the Chinese? Your guess is as good as mine or better. I plain don’t know. But I know that the US own WTI shale oil, which is exclusively used for making gasoline, from Texas is satis for maybe 5 years if the US is to be self-sufficient as proclaimed by Donald Trump. And I know that it takes 15 years to develop an oil industry with everything that comes with it in an area where you have not previously extracted any oil. And from 2008 when the oil in Uganda was discovered to 2018 we have come 10 years.

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

World Policies How it works Introduction

Introduction

Let me introduce myself. My name is Roger M. Klang and I am the Defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party in Sweden. This Podcast is the first in a serial of Podcasts. I wanted to start a Podcast-school for peace loving people. Obviously I am an author on the subject. If you are a bellicose macho man you would probably prefer to skip my school altogether. If you are bellicose and macho I’d just like to say, have a nice life and bon voyage! I have spent thousands of hours on my projects. This series is an educational, advanced but yet somewhat simplified school for political science studies either on your own or at your university. I see this channel as a continuation of my project in the form of my two books called ’Caught up in the game’, a series with 488 pages per book. I can tell you, it’s never been done since Carl von Clausewitz wrote the book Vom Kriege, or in English, On War. That book was published in 1832-34. And my books wouldn’t have been done if it wasn’t for the Internet. My books include everything from submerged warfare to space technology, tactics on the ground in the air and on the sea, operational methods, strategy, geo-strategy and grand-strategy. They cover every aspect I can think of, but they are written in my native Swedish language. If you wish to help me translating them, please contact me.

I want to prevent the major modern empires, i.e. the US and China, from exploiting your continent or country by feeding you storytales about dual gain in extraction of natural resources, trade and affairs. If you know what is going on in the world you will get a better and/or a more realistic negotiative position. Knowledge is power! They are not going to hand you their knowledge. But I will!

You will need to buy some study literature in the form of the annual book CIA WORLD FACTBOOK and a good Atlas. I recommend poor men and women to purchase them at an Antiquarian. The CIA WORLD FACTBOOK is a book published annually by the CIA and it must be made available to the public under US law. The CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 is on 1,120 pages, but only costs around 17 US dollars in a regular book shop. You will also need a ruler to measure with in the Atlas.

In that book, almost all of the worlds countries are included, their background, geography, population, ethnic groups, languages, religion, commodities, natural resources, governance, economics, export products, import products, trading partners, oil production, gas production, telephone systems, airports, railways, military, terrorist associations, border disputes and much more.

 

Homework:

Study interesting countries near and far from you in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK. Get acquainted with the book. When necessary to get a full understanding, look up sites, cities, lakes, rivers, railways etc. in your Atlas. Learn your Atlas features, for instance how you can tell what is a railway in your Atlas or how you will know what distance between two points in your Atlas is in real life. Remember, sometimes it’s absolutely necessary to read this book while simultaneously studying an open Atlas by the side. Otherwise you will not learn a thing of value. Diligence is the key to learning! Check out my Podcast;

You will find the often complicated information and the instructions in written form on this my blog and platform, Thestrategistcowboy.com

You study and evaluate by your own! I am not going to be able to reply on every question even if I know the answer. But you can comment on my Podcast here. Tip each others, ask each others questions. If I feel like it I will comment on your comment. And I will comment! But not on demand. I consulted a good friend about my idea of doing a series of lectures on Podcast. He replied; Socrates was a very wise man, only surpassed by Jesus Christ in wisdom. Socrates used to reply to his students questions with questions. Because he wanted to stimulate his students to think and he wanted to learn for himself from the students comeback answers. This created a loop of two-way learning which was very open-minded and dynamic instead of patronizing and dogmatic.

I have decided to try this teaching method for myself.

Peace be with you and see you in a couple of weeks if all goes well! Two weeks will give you sufficient time to purchase the items required for this course.

 

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

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