Category: Strategic school

Why Germany cannot repeat its WWII performance Lesson six

Peak oil has long since occurred in Ploiesti, Romania, where the Germans got most of their oil during World War II.

Lend-Lease. The Allied Lend-Lease to the Soviet Union which made the Soviet Union superior to Nazi-Germany in materiel and also economically during most of World War II. Supplies and military equipment were shipped in convoys around Nordkap in Norway to Murmansk and Archangels. Supplies and military equipment were also shipped from the US to Vladivostok in southeastern Russia with Soviet flagged ships. A Persian Corridor was also available to support the Soviet Union.

From the East, however, there will never be any Lend-Lease going to the western countries. The Germans’ interest in expanding their borders westward is minimal.

Moscow seems to be just the right distance from western Europe to keep Russia from defeat, seen in a historical perspective. Since then that distance has increased. Circumstances may have altered with the development of new materiel like long distance weapons and satellite sensors.

Italy and Spain are no longer fascist states.

Hypothetical German hopes of securing a future fuel supply by taking the oil fields in the Caucasus at Baku and the Caspian sea are vane. And they also, among other things, need a Chrome supply transported by railways westward from Turkey. Perhaps some Germans hope, as they did in Nazi-Germany with oil from Romania, to seize the oil fields at Caucasus and subsequently load the fuel on barges that can traffic the Danube River. But importing oil from North Africa through the straits in western Turkey and up into the Danube River is certainly seen as an alternative for Germany.

Germany buys an unknown percentual proportion of its oil from Russia, and they buy a lot of gas, gas that runs through the Nordstream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. They have tied theirselves quite a bit to Russia’s supplies of gas and oil to Germany.

Germany can extract liquid fuel from their oil shale and lignite coal, but not nearly enough for the German logistics chain, the motorized army and the air force.

I have put together a 35-point axiom, which can be used to determine a possible outcome in case of a major war. Of these 35 points, Nazi Germany had 17 crucial advantages against 6 for the Soviet Union, and yet Germany lost the war. My conclusion is that this is mostly due to the Soviet endurance through the Allies Lend-Lease, as well as the bombings of Germany including bombings against German-occupied/allied industrial areas and petroleum industries.

(Seventeen German advantages marked *)

1) have a better air force *
2) have a better or more extensive air defense *
3) are more thoroughly trained *
4) have logistic advantages *
5) have the right kind of materiel and equipment in the right amount and constellation, civilian as well as military *
6) have material quality advantages for heavier materiel *
7) have information, intelligence and surveillance advantages *
8) have technological communication advantages *
9) have better and more encryption variables *
10) have a superior leadership and educational doctrine *
11) have the opportunity to choose their battles and where they will take place *
12) have the best country climate *
13) have physically stronger, more sustainable soldiers (mainly concerns voluntary defense/professional soldiers) *
14) have better motivated soldiers *
15) have a better and more sustainable financial system *
16) have a better ability to quickly rebuild ruined industry and destroyed infrastructure (at least when the war looks like in WWII it’s a contest) *
17) have better infrastructure in their home country *

(Six Russian advantages marked ¤)

18) have a weather or season advantage during their warfare, or have weather-resistant clothing for their soldiers, cold-resistant equipment, functional food supplies and indoor accommodation opportunities in severe cold, etc. Deep snow can make transportation and transfer difficult for those who are not equipped and trained, deep mud is even worse, it may cause the most problem for an attacker.¤
19) have a bigger and faster production¤
20) gets financial and material help from the outside world¤
21) have access to oil and oil refineries and kerosene¤
22) have the most (ice free) commercial ports and access to safe shipping routs¤
23) have plenty of or appropriately placed fake targets so that the enemy’s surveillance and attack aircraft will correctly assess the location of the wrong target¤

(Twelve indeterminable or double acting/double edged)

24) are better equipped
25) are better protected and defended by, for example, mines and artillery in a defensive action and artillery during an offensive action
26) are more protected and harder to detect by using better camouflage
27) have better tools, e.g. have night vision devices as standard if you look at the situation today, or have electrolyte powder and potassium permanganate and antibiotics and low-cost performance enhancers, etc.
28) have advantages in terms of fire against targets
29) have better armor on combat vehicles with an advantage of better impact concerning fire against targets
30) have geographic advantages for either defense alt. an offensive (forest areas, steppes, transverse rivers etc.) ¤ *
31) In addition, the best long-range heavy-duty vehicles, adapted for the ground conditions and the accessibility of the offensive (compare with multiplied tactics) ¤ *
32) have a shorter production chain
33) have greater potential/ability to protect industry and infrastructure * ¤
34) have commodity assets within gripping distance ¤ *
35) have the most friendly minded neighboring states or least hostile neighbors

Nazi Germany had 17 of these above listed 35 possible advantages. Opposed are six advantages for Russia, and twelve indeterminable.

Perseverance is obviously such an important factor that it overrides all other factors if you can hold off a quick victory for the opposing side. How else can you explain a German loss even though the Germans had 17 advantages against 6 for the Soviet Union?

The shorter logistics chain (No. 4 above) may not be considered to be a German advantage. However, east Preussia had a partially strategic advantageous starting point at the start of the war, even though east Prussia lacked commodity resources. This advantage Preussia had because Stalin relocated parts of Russia’s industries from western Russia to the east of the Ural Mountains in the summer of 1941.

Another German advantage (not mentioned in the list above) was initially the surprise of the attacker. Although this is usually neutralized relatively quickly, it wasn’t in this war. But a Russian advantage at a later stage was that they could maintain and even increase sufficient reinforcements and resources, which the Germans could not hope to maintain for their part.

The Germans can not count on making a reprisal of the overall plan for the daring attack through the Ardennes as in the attack on France in 1940.

Germany lacks nuclear weapon capacity while Russia, the United States, Great Britain and France all have it. But Germany can acquire it, hypothetically speaking.

Lastly, let me remind you that Germany’s constitution today explicitly prohibits Germany from entering into strategic defense alliances with non-NATO countries. For the protocol, I can say that I support this.

Homework:

No homework today

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

The Chinese Lap-system. Lesson five

What if the Russians invite the Chinese Navy to a unifying drill in the Baltic Sea and the Chinese airforce to a coordinated drill with its units in Kaliningrad Oblast and Luga?

The Chinese thereafter do the Russians job through a sneaky Trojan horse and occupy the big Swedish island of Gotland in the middle of the Baltic Sea, with limited forces. The Chinese Navy has already visited the Baltic Sea and Stockholm in september 2015 via the Danish Belt with a newly built missile equipped Destroyer, a Frigate and a support-ship. The Chinese Navy had a coordinated drill with Russia in the Baltic Sea in 2017.

Consider that it has happened subsequent to two earlier migration ages that the Huns (Asians) have made themselves homesteady in Europe, after beating the Ostrogoths from central Europe, only to disappear approximatly 80 years later just as sudden as they showed up. In the later period the Roman army in alliance with the Visigoths under the Goth and fieldmarshal, with the suspiciously Swedish-sounding name Alarik, beat the Huns.

The Chinese started up factory constructions in the strategicly located Kalmar on the mainland centered just west of the narrow Swedish Island of Öland in the Baltic Sea, with Chinese labour and talked big about one million Chinese migrating to Kalmar. That was foiled by good old fashioned Swedish Bureaucracy. Or maybe it was unintentionally, I really don’t know.

In the fall of 2013 the Icelandic government approved unified Icelandic, Norwegan and Chinese energy corporative efforts to explore possible oil existence on Iceland’s north coastal area. This was hardly done so that the Chinese could extract and import the potential oil all the long way to China as far as China is concerned. For the Chinese it is all about the Lap-system that they are building up in obscurity all the way from China to Malacca Strait to Sri Lanka to various African coastal countries to Iceland and/or Greenland and all the way into the Baltic Sea. The Chinese are going for world dominion.

Homework:

Why do you think that the Chinese Navy visited the Baltic Sea and Stockholm in 2015? Is this proof that the Chinese will not stop until they have accomplished world dominion? Or do you think that the idea of the Chinese seeking world dominion is paranoid? Consider the Chinese constructions and plans in Kalmar before you answer – ”paranoid” – cocksure.

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna värdepartiet) in Sweden

The end of all civilizations. Lesson three

I want to emphasize that when putting a point in a number followed by the word ”million” like this; 1.837 million, it means 1 837 000. When putting commas in a number like this; 1,602,205 it means that it is the full number 1 602 205, and it is not followed by the word ”million”.

In 2013 the United States extracted, in its country, amounts of oil equivalent to 60 percent of their nation’s oil consumption. America consumes 10 liters of oil per person and day. But in 2019 the United States oil reserve days are basically over, unless we account for oil that comes from shale and difficult-to-reach oil reserves. And you need to pump down toxic chemicals into the ground to be able to extract the shale oil. Moreover, the shale oil’s impact on the market is temporary. The 35 billion Texan barrels of oil in an area as big as Alabama will only supply America for a few years:

320,000,000 inhabitants consume 10 liters per person and day =
3,200,000,000 x 365 = 1,168,000,000,000 / 159 liters per barrel =
7,300,000,000 barrels in one year =
Maybe 5 years of consumption for the entire American people.

Texas consists largely of desert, but this desert has an ecosystem. I think Trump is in a propaganda war with the oil-producing countries that do not have to use chemicals to be able to pump up oil. He says that everything is well and he has said that the US would become self-sufficient in oil and even become a net exporter of oil. But what president wants to go down in history as the president who poisoned America’s environment and above all its sweat water sources to the extent we see today with the Fracking method, if there was high quality oil to be bought elsewhere for the US? This story is going to float up to the surface and haunt Trump for sure.

Trump writes in his book “Crippled America” from 2015, that researchers at (the small university) Rice University in Huston Texas have estimated that the US “can have” two trillion barrels of “recoverable oil” so that it will suffice for US consumption for 285 years. Firstly, if you calculate on 2 trillion barrels and the population of the United States in 2015, then the given number is incorrect. The correct number would be 270 years. I also do not believe in the estimation of “2 trillion barrels” because it would mean that the United States has got more oil reserves than the rest of the world put together. Quite much more. I think it is a joyish calculation, especially considering that the US has to make use of Fracking to such a great extent already today to pump up their oil. I think the US is experiencing its last oil boom, and at a great cost to their environment as well.

The CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019, which I trust more than I believe in Trump’s bombastic statements about America’s independence, shows that the United States 2016 imported most of the oil they consume from Canada, Venezuela, Saudi-Arabia and Iraq. But one must make an assessment based on comparison between states in the book and simple calculations. If the USA does not import oil but instead exports domestic oil, they have stepped up the Fracking extraction of oil with rocket speed in the past years since 2016. It now defacto appears as if the United States has so much oil that it will last forever and that it even can be exported because they have too much of the product, if anyone can have that. The United States, as the foremost player in the West and Saudi-Arabia as the leading player in the Middle East, is in a nerve war with each other about the oil price.

It seems like if acceptance of the Fracking method has increased in the US. They can destroy the Texan desert, because that eco-environment is not essential to the people of the United States. But judging from the pictures in a recently made French documentary film, the shale oil is at least partly extracted in fertile and inhabited areas in the Permian Basin area of Texas where most of the shale oil comes from.

A basin, just like the Permian Basin, is a place where the ground is lower than its surroundings. A basin can in nature be a very widestretched area ideal for vegetation. Water flows from the surroundings into many of the basins and that makes the basins fertile. Where there are green pastures and ample water reserves are also the same places where people tend to settle. And it is mostly in basins you can find oil. Consequently, the toxins used for the Fracking method, will contaminate the ground and the groundwater used by farmers and as drinking water by people and livestock.

15 million homes in the US get their water from private wells. That is 43.5 million people. 63 million Americans were exposed to unsafe drinking water in 2017, almost 1/5 of the population in the United States. Also, since people first settled in those basins many ideal spots for oil-drilling purposes are inhabited farmland and/or heavily populated city regions. The oil is often literally under the feet of the urban population. That’s what I mean wen I say difficult-to-reach oil reserves.

Pollution in the communities groundwater and in sweetwater lakes force many people to buy bottled water instead of drinking from the tap. A lot of extra energy consumption is thus created when large amounts of water has to be bottled and delivered from far away locations.

The numbers from the French 2018 documentary “The struggle for Oil” speak of 400 million barrels a year or 1.1 million barrels of oil extracted through Fracking in the United States per day. It does not make the United States self-sufficient, but 1.1 million barrels a day is equivalent to what the United States 2016 imported from Saudi-Arabia and Iraq together. It is about 1/7 of the total US oil imports. But the 1.1 million number is only 1/8 of the number which the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 claims that the US domestic production of oil was per day in 2016. But perhaps they look at Fracking in the USA as a method of pressing down the oil price marginally and not as a way to become self-sufficient in oil. The extracted amount of shale oil that according to what the French documentary film from 2018 claims that the US pumps up today, would last just as long as according to my calculations for how long the US civilization as we know it can count on to exist, i.e. about additionally 40 years. Is this a coincidence?

The United States, according to the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019, imports 2.0 million barrels a day from Canada and 1.0 million barrels of oil per day from Mexico, but the Mexican oil is out of stock at any time, if the oil wells have not already dried up. Convenient then, that a wall against Mexico is going to be built right about now if Trump gets his way. The United States imports another 700,000 barrels a day from Saudi-Arabia, 400,000 barrels a day from Iraq and 300,000 barrels a day from Venezuela. The known rest or 200,000 barrels come in smaller quantities from other countries. All in all, the known amount of 4.6 million barrels.

In comparison, the giant American oil rig ”Perdido”, which is located 300 km off-shore in the Mexican Gulf, can pump up maybe 86,000 barrels of oil per day. The oil rig itself cost 3,000,000,000 dollars to build. That means a liter price of 4 dollars or 15 dollars per gallon if the oil rig stands for fifteen years. And that’s not counting salaries for the oil rig’s personnel and maintenance or production stop, nor do I estimate the deconstruction costs. But on the other hand it is a low estimation of the oil rig’s total lifespan. Imagine that, 15 dollars per gallon! The numbers suggests that Perdido is only an experimental platform. But Perdido is extremely remote. Actually 2 million barrels of the US oil is produced by the US with less remote and less complex off-shore platforms in the Mexican Gulf every day. There is thus a difference between off-shore and off-shore.

If I in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 calculate on all oil countries’ oil exports and the oil countries’ export percentage to the US and then make a comparison with the fixed figures for US oil imports, then about 4.6 million barrels as mentioned above are covered in the book of the US total imported 7.85 million barrels. Thus it doesn’t add up! The United States produces, I guess mainly by the “fracking method”, because it is the method used in the Texas Permian Basin nowadays, 8.853 million barrels a day in 2016 according to the fact book.

The United States could in theory live solely on Saudi-Arabia’s oil reserves only, realistically or optimistically, depending on how you look at it, 30 years if the Saudis had been able to pump up the oil in the required pace and if they sold their oil exclusively to the United States, which they don’t do today.

Canada sits on 170 billion barrels of crude oil, a fourth place in the world, and the country exports 2.671 million barrels of oil per day, most of which goes to the United States. And Venezuela, which exports oil to China but mostly to the United States, sits on one of the worlds two largest certain oil reserves, the other being Saudi-Arabias, ie. about 300 billion barrels of oil for each of the two nations. But Venezuela is only in place 11 in the world when it comes to crude oil production. They export 1.514 million barrels of oil per day. China can buy just under half of the oil exports that the United States creams out of Venezuela. It is only because of Venezuela’s geographic location and nothing else, that China does not have a larger portion of the pie.

The United States imports a total of 7.850 million barrels of oil per day. That means they have to import more than half of these 7.850 million barrels of oil from the Middle East mainly. This would mean that their civilization can survive unaffected for more than 40 years by importing oil from just Saudi-Arabia, Iraq, Canada and Venezuela + the US own oil production, as long as production and the pie allotment remain constant as in 2016. But then they would have no Allies in Europe to take into account and they must consider at least one European partner – Britain.

The oil deposits at the Golan Heights are estimated to exceed Saudi-Arabia’s oil reserves. The CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 doesn’t mention any evidence of major oil deposits in Israel, but this was expected at this stage, regardless of whether there are any significant oil deposits in the ground at the Golan Heights or not. They do not like lying, but it is actually not proven beyond doubt that there are oil in large quantities at the Golan Heights. It could be an equally unsuccessful project, a mony drain, as with the supposed gas in Siljansringen in Sweden three decades ago.

The European Civilization may have only 20 years of its lifetime left, if we do not pump up our military muscles. The United States military force is an expeditionary one and will not be able to measure up to Europe’s total defense forces, at least not on the ground and at least not without a safe haven and deployment site and not without safe bases. But the Americans have no interest in occupying northwestern Europe. If the United States, together with Britain, are hogging the oil and running over or ignoring most European countries in the process, then England will be left to pick up the bill. It will end with an unintentionally neutering of Great Britain by the United States just as they were neutered by the Romans during the former migration period.

We do not behave like that. We sit on the best magnetic iron ore in the world, but we would never be so stupid that we thought we could become isolationistic while the rest of Europe or the world falls back into the Middle Ages. In that case, we would have to count on a war against an overwhelming opponent. Though in our case, a war against us by the Europeans had not been needed. We would have been goners logistically and materiel-wise anyway. America’s and Europe’s civilizations goes under together, with or without a great war. But good luck trying to get Trump to understand that!

Russia’s oil reserves are estimated to be 80 billion barrels (2017). It will be enough for 20 years if Russia is forced to supply Europe and China with the oil they are used to consuming throughout this time. Today, Russia exports ~50 percent of its oil production.

Azerbaijan’s oil will last for 23 years with its current production rate which is relatively low.

Norway’s oil reserves were 1/6 of the United States in 2017. The Norwegians produced 1,648,000 barrels of oil per day in 2016. They retained 253,000 of these barrels of oil for their own use in 2016. Export is at approximately 80 percent of the total production. Norway is able to produce oil for a further 10 years with the current production rate.

Sweden imported 394,000 barrels of oil per day in 2016. 45 percent of the crude oil came from Russia. 26 percent came from Norway, Nigeria accounted for 10 percent Venezuela for 7 percent and Denmark accounted for 13 percent in 2016.

Sources; CIA WORLD FACTBOOK; and the part about Sweden’s oil imports from the blog Cornucopia? by Lars Wilderäng

The worlds oil reserves of 1 trillion 726 billion barrels of oil in 2017 are sufficient for the whole world for maybe 18 years from 2019. However, there are uncertainties in these estimates. New oil fields are discovered on regular basis, and since 1991, we have declared peak oil every year. Also the Ugandan oil deposits probably wrecks my estimation a bit. But the southeast Asian countries’ economies are growing fast.

But it is more complicated than so. There are actually 161 different internationally traded crude oils on the stock market. It can seem insanely many since you as a consumer only have a few different options to choose from when you refuel your gasoline car. The crude oils all differ in terms of quality and price. Many grades of crude oil are suitable for production of plastics, diesel and fuel oil only. The Norwegian and British oil in the North Sea has been dubbed “Brent oil”. Brent oil is characterized by its high quality and it is suitable for making gasoline from. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also known as Texas Light Sweet, is also a type of high-quality crude oil suitable for making gasoline from, and it is used as a benchmark in oil pricing alongside Brent. Both crude oils are light (low density) and sweet (low in sulfur). Other important oil markers include Dubai Crude and OPEC Reference Basket.

Phosphates

Phosphates are used for manure and it is spread across farmlands around the world to achieve significantly larger harvests. Estimates of phosphate production are sometimes difficult to understand because the phosphates are mined in different forms. The dominant form is ”Phosphate Rock”, a mineral that is usually mined in open pits. Two thirds of the world production are mined in China, the United States and Morocco/Western Sahara. Morocco and the by Morocco occupied Western Sahara account for 30 percent of the export market.

US phosphate reserves will last for 30 years for US use only. The United States does not export phosphate ore. Neither does China. The worlds phosphate reserves are estimated to be around 15 billion tonnes, which is sufficient for the world-wide consumption for 90 years with current technology, according to the US Geological Survey. Phosphate production in the world will not come to a critical low level before the worlds oil reserves peter out. Thus, phosphate production in Morocco/Western Sahara is strategically secondary. This did not prevent the United States from making a bilateral trade deal with Morocco during 2006. The European Union didn’t jump on the train until two years later.

Homework:

Can you think of a reason why George W. Bush and the United States made a bilateral trade deal with Morocco during 2006?

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

The importance of Uganda in big politics. Lesson one

The following is evidence based:

Differences between CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2015 and CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 are that in the latter version there are three major countries omitted – Paraguay, Uganda and Japan. These three big countries are the only big real countries that are omitted in the 2018-2019 edition of CIAs World Factbook.

  1. Paraguay was omitted because in part the country is involved in and is a hub for arms smuggling, mony laundry, narcotic traffics. They have this in common with most of the Latin American countries. But, and above all, the support of terrorist organizations by possibly branches in the government differ Paraguay from the rest of Latin America. There doesn’t seem to be any effort from the authorities in Paraguay to end it.
  2. Uganda is located in Africas south inland 1,200 km southwest of Djibouti near Africas horn. The country was omitted in CIA World Factbook 2018-2019 because they are sitting on conciderable amounts of oil reserves, according to oil-prospects made already in 2008.
  3. Japan is not included because Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has deliberately been approaching his country closer to Russia. Among other things, he has met with Vladimir Putin under cozy forms, and Vladimir Putin has opened up for a solution to ongoing border disputes about a few islands north of Japan in the Kuriles. CIA in their book omitted the country of Japan for grand political reasons and not geo-strategical reasons. Japan lacks raw materials, besides REE i.e. Rear Earth Elements which are used in electronics and lasers and such, and they seek a stable raw material and resource supplier of, for example, oil from the Russian Far East. Also, supplies of food from Russia to feed the Japanese population should be an end goal for Japan. There is a fear in the US that Japan will approach Russia and China even more so that they will create an axis. It is not necessarily a rational fear.

The CIA punishes Japan and Paraguay, or sends a signal to them, by omitting them from the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019.

The dispute in the South China Sea is mainly about who is going to be able to control the sea routes not least to the Ugandan oil which has potential to show that it surpass the collective oil reservs off all the OPEC-countries put together. ”Uganda’s oil reserves can match that of the OPEC-countries” says Sally Kornfeld, an analytic for the division of fossil fuels at US Energy Department. The planning and construction for the extraction of oil and building of pipelines in Uganda continues. You can look up Uganda on Wikipedia and read for yourself.

If you do not control the shipping-lanes to Africa chances are very high that you will not get to buy the Ugandan oil. The straits of Malacca, Sunda and Lombok are in the US pocket right now. Therefore the US has the upper hand. But the Chinese are making extensive efforts to gain influence in Malaysia. Among other things they are building four artificial islands in and near the Malacca strait complete with a 700,000 people city as a resort place for the Chinese and a port that can harbor an aircraft carrier and all.

Australia’s importance as an US allied buffert state and a potential base and build up area and whete, corn, dairy and meat storehouse cannot be underestimated.

In THE CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2020-2021, Uganda is back in the factbook. But the factbook information is saying that the Ugandan proved oil-reserves are a mere 2.5 billion barrels (in 2018). It would suffice for approximately 1.5 years for a country like the US. If the numbers are true, then why spend billions of dollars on export pipelines and so on, as stated in the 2020-2021 edition of the factbook? Also, THE CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2020-2021 suddenly states ”NA” or Not Available for the US proved total oil reserves. They didn’t in the 2018-2019 edition. That’s odd.

 

Homework:

Why do you think the country of Uganda was omitted in the paper edition of the CIA World Factbook 2018-2019? Think! You know they have got large amounts of oil. Who benefits from that these oil reserves are coming out on the market? Who has an interest in that affairs with Uganda are being kept clandestine? Or is the omission a punishment for that Ugandan authorities wants to sell the oil to the wrong part i.e. the Chinese? Your guess is as good as mine or better. I plain don’t know. But I know that the US own WTI shale oil, which is exclusively used for making gasoline, from Texas is satis for maybe 5 years if the US is to be self-sufficient as proclaimed by Donald Trump. And I know that it takes 15 years to develop an oil industry with everything that comes with it in an area where you have not previously extracted any oil. And from 2008 when the oil in Uganda was discovered to 2018 we have come 10 years.

Update in december 2021:

Uganda in 2021 owes China 1.6 billion US dollars in loans, about 4 percent of Uganda’s GDP. I recently in december 2021 spoke with an elderly African man with many years of experience in the gemstone business, who was from Uganda, and I asked him how Ugandan oil industry is doing, if the infrastructure is built, and who can get their hands on that oil. He told me that the largest oil reserves are in Congo near Lake Victoria. Democratic Republic of Congo do not agree with the Chinese, in fact they are forcing the Chinese mining companies out of the country. Five Chinese citizens were kidnapped in Congo in November 2021, and China is now calling for its citizens to leave the country. China cannot project military power in the East of Congo, but how about the West of Congo? I guess not. So it looks like it is the United States that will get its hands on the Congolese oil. But there is an obstacle, Congo is not located on the east coast, but countries such as Tanzania and Kenya must allow pipelines to be laid through their countries’ territories, unless the pipelines are laid in direction West because then there is a narrow window on the west coast.

The Democratic Republic of Congo is predominantly Christian. Democratic Republic of Congo’s main export and import partner was China as late as in 2017. The thing is that in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2021-2022 they state that The Democratic Republic of Congo has a mere 180 million barrels (2018) of proved crude oil reserves. That is nothing compared to the Ugandan 2.5 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves. But there might be a struggle between China and the US for Uganda’s crude oil reserves, and that may have had an impeding impact on the building of oil infrastructure in Uganda.

Also, the Republic of Congo (not The Democratic Republic) has another 1.6 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves (2018) and their commodity export to China is nearly a whooping 54 percent of their total export, so China is clearly the most influential player in The Republic of Congo. Oil from the Republic of Congo must surely be shipped to China first of all. The US is neither on the republic of Congo’s main export list nor on their main import list. The Republic of Congo is predominantly Christian.

I know from a Swede who has lived in Tanzania for the past 20+ years that Tanzania, or at least where he lives, has as many Chinese inhabitants as it has African inhabitants. But it is not implausible to assume that this man only associates with businessmen in the country. However, the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2021-2022 states that Tanzania’s Asian population is less than 1 percent of the total number of inhabitants. The US is, according to the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2021-2022, not among Tanzania’s seven most important trading partners. There was no oil extraction in Tanzania in 2015-2018 and there isn’t any proved crude oil reserves in the country (2018) according to the factbook, despite being located in part at Victoria Lake. Tanzania has a Christian majority population.

Kenya has an even larger Christian majority population. But it is difficult to ascertain how many Chinese inhabitants the country has, it can be anything from 1 up to 8 percent of the total Kenyan population. The US is well ahead of China as an export partner for Kenya, but China is way ahead of the US as an import partner for kenya. And again, the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2021-2022 states that also Kenya lacks proved crude oil reserves, despite being located partly at Victoria Lake, and another fairly big lake in the North of their country. How accurate is this?

Neither the US nor China is a major export partner for Uganda, but China is a major import partner for Uganda whereas the US is not. Uganda is located inland to the North of Victoria Lake. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of Chinese in Uganda apart from businessmen, and Uganda’s main religions are Christian religions. Also the Ugandan GDP is even lower than the other two African countries mentioned here. And Uganda is bordering both Kenya and Congo. And Uganda is expected to have 2.5 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves, albeit no oil extraction, yet. And finally, the former president Barrack Obama’s father was from Kenya. So it is easy to see why the US first selected Uganda as their first strategic country of interest. Except, the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2021-2022 omits how far Uganda has come with the building of oil infrastructure, despite it being the norm in the factbook. But Tanzania has got something like a thousand kilometers of pipelines for oil. It is a bit short. Kenya has got nearly 1,500km of pipelines for refined oil products.

Tanzania and Kenya must first be assisted in building up their port infrastructure if the Congolese and Ugandan oil is to be shipped that way. Meanwhile, the Chinese, it seems, are trying out a new softer strategy in Africa. Xi Jinping has recently said that China will send one billion Covid vaccine shots to Africa. But is it free of charge?

Today’s lesson. Never stop contemplating a matter if the matter is unclear! Do a thorough job!

World Policies How it works Introduction

Introduction

Let me introduce myself. My name is Roger M. Klang and I am an ethnic Swede from Sweden. I happen to believe in God but I am not affiliated with any church. As it is, most people in the world belive in at least one God. It is not the average Swede who is the norm. And the world leaders’ belief in God can very much affect the circumstances for their preferred geo-politics. World leaders don’t get any more or less predictible because they believe in or for that matter don’t believe in God. You need to understand who they are. Therefore you need to know what makes them tic, and if you can’t grasp most of the world leaders because you are an atheist, then God help you. So don’t dismiss me on the ground that I explicitly believe in God, because I have more in common with most world leaders than do the atheist in this manner, and therefore I may also have an advantage over the average Swede when it comes to understanding global geo-politics, but not necessarily geo-strategy. The least one can ascertain is that I have a bigger chance to make myself understood to foreign world leaders than do the atheist. Am I ever wrong then? Yes, often in the short run. But I think and study a lot about these things and if I am only given enough time I usually solve the puzzle at last, because I never let go of the questions. Just remember that geo-politics is an eye-moment description of the world and so can this book be, but geo-strategy lasts. In one of my chapters, The Abysmal gap, I explain the difference between geo-politics and geo-strategy. It’s not religious.

I wanted to start a Youtube-school for peace loving people. Obviously I am an author on the subject. If you are a bellicose macho man you would probably prefer to skip reading my book altogether. If you are bellicose and macho I’d just like to say, have a nice life and bon voyage! I have spent thousands of hours on my projects. This publication is an educational, advanced but yet somewhat simplified school book for political science studies either on your own or at your university.

I want to prevent the major modern empires, i.e. the US and China, from exploiting your continent or country by feeding you storytales about dual gain in extraction of natural resources, trade and affairs. If you know what is going on in the world you will get a better and/or a more realistic negotiative position. Knowledge paired with media-control is power! They are not going to hand you their knowledge. But I will!

You will need to buy some additional study literature in the form of the annual book CIA WORLD FACTBOOK and a good Atlas. You will also need a ruler to measure with in the Atlas. The CIA WORLD FACTBOOK is a book published annually by the CIA and it must be made available to the public under US regulations. The CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 is on 1,120 pages, but only costs around 17 US dollars in a regular book shop.

In that book, almost all of the worlds countries are included, their background, geography, population, ethnic groups, languages, religion, commodities, natural resources, governance, economics, export products, import products, trading partners, oil production, gas production, telephone systems, airports, railways, military, terrorist associations, border disputes and much more.

Homework:

Study interesting countries near and far from you in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK. Get acquainted with the book. When necessary to get a full understanding, look up sites, cities, lakes, rivers, railways etc. in your Atlas. Learn your Atlas features, for instance how you can tell what is a railway in your Atlas or how you will know what distance between two points in your Atlas is in real life. Remember, sometimes it’s absolutely necessary to read this book while simultaneously studying an open Atlas by the side. Otherwise you will not learn a thing of value. Diligence is the key to learning! Check out my Pod-cast with both tactical, battle technical, operational and strategic reach;

You will find the often complicated information and the instructions in written form on this my blog and platform, Thestrategistcowboy.com

You study and evaluate by your own! I am not going to be able to reply on every question even if I know the answer. But you can comment on my Podcast here. Tip each others, ask each others questions. If I feel like it I will comment on your comment. And I will comment! But not on demand. I consulted a good friend about my idea of doing a series of lectures on Podcast. He replied; Socrates was a very wise man, only surpassed by Jesus Christ in wisdom. Socrates used to reply to his students questions with questions. Because he wanted to stimulate his students to think and he wanted to learn for himself from the students comeback answers. This created a loop of two-way learning which was very open-minded and dynamic instead of patronizing and dogmatic.

I have decided to try this teaching method for myself.

Peace be with you and see you in a couple of weeks if all goes well! Two weeks will give you sufficient time to purchase the items required for this course.

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

Griftgång