Fact evidence: In late October 2018, Israels prime minister Netanyahu visited Oman under friendly terms. Not long after, following this, Trump said that ”Saudi-Arabia is on the clock”. Unfortunately I can no longer find the source to the Saudi-Arabia-is-on-the-clock statement, but I distinctly remember it word for word.
Very interesting. But I don’t expect that Oman will cave in to Israel! Israelis cannot project the necessary power in the Strait of Hormuz region to be able to do that. If Oman will cave in they will do it because the guy in the background is putting pressure on the country. I am of course talking about Trump.
And speaking about Saudi-Arabia. The United States is starting to export more goods than they receive oil in the other direction. The amount of oil the US receive from Saudi-Arabia 2018 is down 1/3 since 2015 while the exports to the country stays the same. So you probably have to look for the explanation there. The US has no interest in sustaining the state of Saudi-Arabia if they don’t get to import their oil. The numbers 1/3 comes from the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2015 compared with the numbers in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019.
The Strait of Hormuz is 21 nautical miles (24 miles or 39 km) in width at its narrowest place. In 2011 an average of 14 tankers per day passed out of the Persian Gulf through the strait, carrying 17 million barrels of crude oil. That is 35 percent of the worlds seaborn oil shipments and 20 percent of the oil traded worldwide. Some say 40 percent of all oil traded worldwide. More than 85 percent of this oil goes to Asian countries, with Japan, India, South Korea and China the biggest buyers. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz throughout the years.
This doesn’t mean that Saudi-Arabia will become a target militarily. It is much more likely that Iran will become a target. But I think we can expect that the US will strive to put pressure on especially the Saudis to not cut back any more on the oil sales to the US and preferrably increase the oil sales quota to the US. They hope to accomplish this by projecting more power against the Iranians and by dwarfing the Chinese influence in the nearby region and, hopefully, in the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. They attempt all of this nowadays with the projection of military power rather than with conventions, national aid and business agreements which previous political administrations may have relied on more.
This dwarfing of the chinese Navy in the Gulf of Oman can be done by confining the Chinese Navy within the South China Sea. As long as America has the ability to project power at sea more than China has, the US can decide the rules of the game. But the difference between the strength of the American Navy and the Chinese Navy on the other hand, is more than anything revolving around America’s Aircraft carrier groups superiority in number and capacity that dwarf the Chinese number and capacity.
China has an airbase at Gwadar in western Pakistan near by the Gulf of Oman. If China can continue on with a construction of new airbases in foreign countries in and around the region, then America’s superiority with their aircraft carrier groups will be leveled out in actual capacity compared to the Chinese. But the USAF currently has airbases in several Arab countries on the west coast of the Persian Gulf opposite Iran.
Should Iran allow China to construct airbases in their country, then the Chinese could place these airbases wisely, meaning more optimal for defense of Iranian oil-installations and self-defense than the Americans can do and have done. As a bonus the Chinese airbases would be more suitable for attacks against to Iran possibly hostile oil-nations in the north and west of the Persian Gulf.
The Royal Navy seized an Iranian oil-tanker, Grace 1, on july 4:th 2019. As retaliation the Iranians have at present date (july 2019) hijacked several oil-tankers over the past month. One was Swedish owned but flagged a British piece of cloth since it was registered in Britain as so many ships are. It is interesting that the Royal Navy’s initial hijacking of the Iranian oil-tanker took place near Gibraltar strait and not at the Strait of Hormuz or in the Persian Gulf.
It is equally interesting that the British says that they ”suspected” quote on quote, that the Iranian oil-tanker was carrying crude to Syria and that is why it had to be seized by the British and also that the British seized the tanker in the name of the EU. What about Brexit now? This smells warmongering. According to shipping data, Grace 1 sailed to the Mediterranean around Africa, maybe to avoid the, for such a large supertanker, unloading and refilling of its oil at the Suez Canal which would have meant exposing their cargo to potential seizure by Egypt. Or, it sailed to the Mediterranean from Venezuela, and if so it sailed around Africa and passed through the Suez Canal to avoid the British gazing eyes at Gibraltar straits. Either the cargo was oil from Iran, or the cargo was oil from Venezuela. But one of the two options must be true.
And it is also interesting that the British hijacking took place on America’s independence day. A coincidence? No, that is how the big boys talk to each others when they want to deliver a message. 364 to 1 is the odds if you want to contest that!
Many years ago Britain was the leading nation in state sponsored piracy. And they still are. Royal Navy still has a protocol for boarding other nations civilian ships. It is not an easy thing to board a ship with a hostile crew onboard.
- Trump said that ”Saudi-Arabia is on the clock”. Can you think of any scenarios if the Saudis don’t comply with America? What will happen in the region you think?
- Do you think that in the long run Iran will gain influence or that they will lose influence should the US threaten with war and then abstain from realize it? And if Iran gain influence, will there be a war? Will there be a war if Iran dwindle in power and there is a real threat of a serious upheaval in Iran?
- For the overambitious; How do you think that China if possible will try to profit from these different scenarios, given the tense situation in the South China Sea? Pick one scenario that you think is the most realistic and suggest China’s politics:
- Saudis don’t comply.
- Saudis don’t comply and Iran gain influence in the region.
- Saudis don’t comply and Iran lose influence because of US war rattling.
- Saudis don’t comply while civil unrest in Iran.
In a later strategic lesson I will give you strong circumstantial evidence for that the Trump administration really were looking to start a war with Iran in the next four years from september 2020, except Trump lost the election. This is what Iran knows and they also know it is because of oil, but they think it is because the US wants to steal their oil, and that is not necessarily so. They lack the China cornerstone for understanding the US motive. EU is like inspector Clouseau, a clumsy backwards French detective in the dark that sometimes may solve a puzzle by chance. Only Britain and Israel and the Arab Gulf states are initiated, and perhaps Australia. But I told the Swedish military headquarters what is going on recently. When you know what is going on you can actually follow the news and really understand what they are talking about in Israeli right wing media, and why they are talking about it. So stay tuned!
Roger M. Klang, defense political Spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden