The importance of Uganda in big politics. Lesson one

The following is evidence based:

Differences between CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2015 and CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 are that in the latter version there are three major countries omitted – Paraguay, Uganda and Japan. These three big countries are the only big real countries that are omitted in the 2018-2019 edition of CIAs World Factbook.

  1. Paraguay was omitted because in part the country is involved in and is a hub for arms smuggling, mony laundry, narcotic traffics. They have this in common with most of the Latin American countries. But, and above all, the support of terrorist organizations by possibly branches in the government differ Paraguay from the rest of Latin America. There doesn’t seem to be any effort from the authorities in Paraguay to end it.
  2. Uganda is located in Africas south inland 1,200 km southwest of Djibouti near Africas horn. The country was omitted in CIA World Factbook 2018-2019 because they are sitting on conciderable amounts of oil reserves, according to oil-prospects made already in 2008.
  3. Japan is not included because Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has deliberately been approaching his country closer to Russia. Among other things, he has met with Vladimir Putin under cozy forms, and Vladimir Putin has opened up for a solution to ongoing border disputes about a few islands north of Japan in the Kuriles. CIA in their book omitted the country of Japan for grand political reasons and not geo-strategical reasons. Japan lacks raw materials, besides REE i.e. Rear Earth Elements which are used in electronics and lasers and such, and they seek a stable raw material and resource supplier of, for example, oil from the Russian Far East. Also, supplies of food from Russia to feed the Japanese population should be an end goal for Japan. There is a fear in the US that Japan will approach Russia and China even more so that they will create an axis. It is not necessarily a rational fear.

The CIA punishes Japan and Paraguay, or sends a signal to them, by omitting them from the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019.

The dispute in the South China Sea is mainly about who is going to be able to control the sea routes not least to the Ugandan oil which has potential to show that it surpass the collective oil reservs off all the OPEC-countries put together. ”Uganda’s oil reserves can match that of the OPEC-countries” says Sally Kornfeld, an analytic for the division of fossil fuels at US Energy Department. The planning and construction for the extraction of oil and building of pipelines in Uganda continues. You can look up Uganda on Wikipedia and read for yourself.

If you do not control the shipping-lanes to Africa chances are very high that you will not get to buy the Ugandan oil. The straits of Malacca, Sunda and Lombok are in the US pocket right now. Therefore the US has the upper hand. But the Chinese are making extensive efforts to gain influence in Malaysia. Among other things they are building four artificial islands in and near the Malacca strait complete with a 700,000 people city as a resort place for the Chinese and a port that can harbor an aircraft carrier and all.

Australia’s importance as an US allied buffert state and a potential base and build up area and whete, corn, dairy and meat storehouse cannot be underestimated.

In THE CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2020-2021, Uganda is back in the factbook. But the factbook information is saying that the Ugandan proved oil-reserves are a mere 2.5 billion barrels (in 2018). It would suffice for approximately 1.5 years for a country like the US. If the numbers are true, then why spend billions of dollars on export pipelines and so on, as stated in the 2020-2021 edition of the factbook? Also, THE CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2020-2021 suddenly states ”NA” or Not Available for the US proved total oil reserves. They didn’t in the 2018-2019 edition. That’s odd.

 

Homework:

Why do you think the country of Uganda was omitted in the paper edition of the CIA World Factbook 2018-2019? Think! You know they have got large amounts of oil. Who benefits from that these oil reserves are coming out on the market? Who has an interest in that affairs with Uganda are being kept clandestine? Or is the omission a punishment for that Ugandan authorities wants to sell the oil to the wrong part i.e. the Chinese? Your guess is as good as mine or better. I plain don’t know. But I know that the US own WTI shale oil, which is exclusively used for making gasoline, from Texas is satis for maybe 5 years if the US is to be self-sufficient as proclaimed by Donald Trump. And I know that it takes 15 years to develop an oil industry with everything that comes with it in an area where you have not previously extracted any oil. And from 2008 when the oil in Uganda was discovered to 2018 we have come 10 years.

Update in december 2021:

Uganda in 2021 owes China 1.6 billion US dollars in loans, about 4 percent of Uganda’s GDP. I recently in december 2021 spoke with an elderly African man with many years of experience in the gemstone business, who was from Uganda, and I asked him how Ugandan oil industry is doing, if the infrastructure is built, and who can get their hands on that oil. He told me that the largest oil reserves are in Congo near Lake Victoria. Democratic Republic of Congo do not agree with the Chinese, in fact they are forcing the Chinese mining companies out of the country. Five Chinese citizens were kidnapped in Congo in November 2021, and China is now calling for its citizens to leave the country. China cannot project military power in the East of Congo, but how about the West of Congo? I guess not. So it looks like it is the United States that will get its hands on the Congolese oil. But there is an obstacle, Congo is not located on the east coast, but countries such as Tanzania and Kenya must allow pipelines to be laid through their countries’ territories, unless the pipelines are laid in direction West because then there is a narrow window on the west coast.

The Democratic Republic of Congo is predominantly Christian. Democratic Republic of Congo’s main export and import partner was China as late as in 2017. The thing is that in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2021-2022 they state that The Democratic Republic of Congo has a mere 180 million barrels (2018) of proved crude oil reserves. That is nothing compared to the Ugandan 2.5 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves. But there might be a struggle between China and the US for Uganda’s crude oil reserves, and that may have had an impeding impact on the building of oil infrastructure in Uganda.

Also, the Republic of Congo (not The Democratic Republic) has another 1.6 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves (2018) and their commodity export to China is nearly a whooping 54 percent of their total export, so China is clearly the most influential player in The Republic of Congo. Oil from the Republic of Congo must surely be shipped to China first of all. The US is neither on the republic of Congo’s main export list nor on their main import list. The Republic of Congo is predominantly Christian.

I know from a Swede who has lived in Tanzania for the past 20+ years that Tanzania, or at least where he lives, has as many Chinese inhabitants as it has African inhabitants. But it is not implausible to assume that this man only associates with businessmen in the country. However, the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2021-2022 states that Tanzania’s Asian population is less than 1 percent of the total number of inhabitants. The US is, according to the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2021-2022, not among Tanzania’s seven most important trading partners. There was no oil extraction in Tanzania in 2015-2018 and there isn’t any proved crude oil reserves in the country (2018) according to the factbook, despite being located in part at Victoria Lake. Tanzania has a Christian majority population.

Kenya has an even larger Christian majority population. But it is difficult to ascertain how many Chinese inhabitants the country has, it can be anything from 1 up to 8 percent of the total Kenyan population. The US is well ahead of China as an export partner for Kenya, but China is way ahead of the US as an import partner for kenya. And again, the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2021-2022 states that also Kenya lacks proved crude oil reserves, despite being located partly at Victoria Lake, and another fairly big lake in the North of their country. How accurate is this?

Neither the US nor China is a major export partner for Uganda, but China is a major import partner for Uganda whereas the US is not. Uganda is located inland to the North of Victoria Lake. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of Chinese in Uganda apart from businessmen, and Uganda’s main religions are Christian religions. Also the Ugandan GDP is even lower than the other two African countries mentioned here. And Uganda is bordering both Kenya and Congo. And Uganda is expected to have 2.5 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves, albeit no oil extraction, yet. And finally, the former president Barrack Obama’s father was from Kenya. So it is easy to see why the US first selected Uganda as their first strategic country of interest. Except, the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2021-2022 omits how far Uganda has come with the building of oil infrastructure, despite it being the norm in the factbook. But Tanzania has got something like a thousand kilometers of pipelines for oil. It is a bit short. Kenya has got nearly 1,500km of pipelines for refined oil products.

Tanzania and Kenya must first be assisted in building up their port infrastructure if the Congolese and Ugandan oil is to be shipped that way. Meanwhile, the Chinese, it seems, are trying out a new softer strategy in Africa. Xi Jinping has recently said that China will send one billion Covid vaccine shots to Africa. But is it free of charge?

Today’s lesson. Never stop contemplating a matter if the matter is unclear! Do a thorough job!

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Roger Klang

I come from Arboga, Sweden, same latitude as Stockholm, Oslo and Helsinki. The year in which I was born was 1965. But I grew up in the region of Scania in the south end of Sweden. I believe in God and his son Jesus Christ but I still don’t go to Church. I don’t know what else to say about myself so I’ll stop here. The truth is, you wouldn’t know me if you had read a book about me. I’m pretty unique I like to think. We all are, but especially me. Roger M. Klang, civis Lundensis

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