# The end of all civilizations. Lesson three

I want to emphasize that when putting a point in a number followed by the word ”million” like this; 1.837 million, it means 1 837 000. When putting commas in a number like this; 1,602,205 it means that it is the full number 1 602 205, and it is not followed by the word ”million”.

In 2013 the United States extracted, in its country, amounts of oil equivalent to 60 percent of their nation’s oil consumption. America consumes 10 liters of oil per person and day. But in 2019 the United States oil reserve days are basically over, unless we account for oil that comes from shale and difficult-to-reach oil reserves. And you need to pump down toxic chemicals into the ground to be able to extract the shale oil. Moreover, the shale oil’s impact on the market is temporary. The 35 billion Texan barrels of oil in an area as big as Alabama will only supply America for a few years:

320,000,000 inhabitants consume 10 liters per person and day =
3,200,000,000 x 365 = 1,168,000,000,000 / 159 liters per barrel =
7,300,000,000 barrels in one year =
Maybe 5 years of consumption for the entire American people.

Texas consists largely of desert, but this desert has an ecosystem. I think Trump is in a propaganda war with the oil-producing countries that do not have to use chemicals to be able to pump up oil. He says that everything is well and he has said that the US would become self-sufficient in oil and even become a net exporter of oil. But what president wants to go down in history as the president who poisoned America’s environment and above all its sweat water sources to the extent we see today with the Fracking method, if there was high quality oil to be bought elsewhere for the US? This story is going to float up to the surface and haunt Trump for sure.

Trump writes in his book “Crippled America” from 2015, that researchers at (the small university) Rice University in Huston Texas have estimated that the US “can have” two trillion barrels of “recoverable oil” so that it will suffice for US consumption for 285 years. Firstly, if you calculate on 2 trillion barrels and the population of the United States in 2015, then the given number is incorrect. The correct number would be 270 years. I also do not believe in the estimation of “2 trillion barrels” because it would mean that the United States has got more oil reserves than the rest of the world put together. Quite much more. I think it is a joyish calculation, especially considering that the US has to make use of Fracking to such a great extent already today to pump up their oil. I think the US is experiencing its last oil boom, and at a great cost to their environment as well.

The CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019, which I trust more than I believe in Trump’s bombastic statements about America’s independence, shows that the United States 2016 imported most of the oil they consume from Canada, Venezuela, Saudi-Arabia and Iraq. But one must make an assessment based on comparison between states in the book and simple calculations. If the USA does not import oil but instead exports domestic oil, they have stepped up the Fracking extraction of oil with rocket speed in the past years since 2016. It now defacto appears as if the United States has so much oil that it will last forever and that it even can be exported because they have too much of the product, if anyone can have that. The United States, as the foremost player in the West and Saudi-Arabia as the leading player in the Middle East, is in a nerve war with each other about the oil price.

It seems like if acceptance of the Fracking method has increased in the US. They can destroy the Texan desert, because that eco-environment is not essential to the people of the United States. But judging from the pictures in a recently made French documentary film, the shale oil is at least partly extracted in fertile and inhabited areas in the Permian Basin area of Texas where most of the shale oil comes from.

A basin, just like the Permian Basin, is a place where the ground is lower than its surroundings. A basin can in nature be a very widestretched area ideal for vegetation. Water flows from the surroundings into many of the basins and that makes the basins fertile. Where there are green pastures and ample water reserves are also the same places where people tend to settle. And it is mostly in basins you can find oil. Consequently, the toxins used for the Fracking method, will contaminate the ground and the groundwater used by farmers and as drinking water by people and livestock.

15 million homes in the US get their water from private wells. That is 43.5 million people. 63 million Americans were exposed to unsafe drinking water in 2017, almost 1/5 of the population in the United States. Also, since people first settled in those basins many ideal spots for oil-drilling purposes are inhabited farmland and/or heavily populated city regions. The oil is often literally under the feet of the urban population. That’s what I mean wen I say difficult-to-reach oil reserves.

Pollution in the communities groundwater and in sweetwater lakes force many people to buy bottled water instead of drinking from the tap. A lot of extra energy consumption is thus created when large amounts of water has to be bottled and delivered from far away locations.

The numbers from the French 2018 documentary “The struggle for Oil” speak of 400 million barrels a year or 1.1 million barrels of oil extracted through Fracking in the United States per day. It does not make the United States self-sufficient, but 1.1 million barrels a day is equivalent to what the United States 2016 imported from Saudi-Arabia and Iraq together. It is about 1/7 of the total US oil imports. But the 1.1 million number is only 1/8 of the number which the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 claims that the US domestic production of oil was per day in 2016. But perhaps they look at Fracking in the USA as a method of pressing down the oil price marginally and not as a way to become self-sufficient in oil. The extracted amount of shale oil that according to what the French documentary film from 2018 claims that the US pumps up today, would last just as long as according to my calculations for how long the US civilization as we know it can count on to exist, i.e. about additionally 40 years. Is this a coincidence?

The United States, according to the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019, imports 2.0 million barrels a day from Canada and 1.0 million barrels of oil per day from Mexico, but the Mexican oil is out of stock at any time, if the oil wells have not already dried up. Convenient then, that a wall against Mexico is going to be built right about now if Trump gets his way. The United States imports another 700,000 barrels a day from Saudi-Arabia, 400,000 barrels a day from Iraq and 300,000 barrels a day from Venezuela. The known rest or 200,000 barrels come in smaller quantities from other countries. All in all, the known amount of 4.6 million barrels.

In comparison, the giant American oil rig ”Perdido”, which is located 300 km off-shore in the Mexican Gulf, can pump up maybe 86,000 barrels of oil per day. The oil rig itself cost 3,000,000,000 dollars to build. That means a liter price of 4 dollars or 15 dollars per gallon if the oil rig stands for fifteen years. And that’s not counting salaries for the oil rig’s personnel and maintenance or production stop, nor do I estimate the deconstruction costs. But on the other hand it is a low estimation of the oil rig’s total lifespan. Imagine that, 15 dollars per gallon! The numbers suggests that Perdido is only an experimental platform. But Perdido is extremely remote. Actually 2 million barrels of the US oil is produced by the US with less remote and less complex off-shore platforms in the Mexican Gulf every day. There is thus a difference between off-shore and off-shore.

If I in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 calculate on all oil countries’ oil exports and the oil countries’ export percentage to the US and then make a comparison with the fixed figures for US oil imports, then about 4.6 million barrels as mentioned above are covered in the book of the US total imported 7.85 million barrels. Thus it doesn’t add up! The United States produces, I guess mainly by the “fracking method”, because it is the method used in the Texas Permian Basin nowadays, 8.853 million barrels a day in 2016 according to the fact book.

The United States could in theory live solely on Saudi-Arabia’s oil reserves only, realistically or optimistically, depending on how you look at it, 30 years if the Saudis had been able to pump up the oil in the required pace and if they sold their oil exclusively to the United States, which they don’t do today.

Canada sits on 170 billion barrels of crude oil, a fourth place in the world, and the country exports 2.671 million barrels of oil per day, most of which goes to the United States. And Venezuela, which exports oil to China but mostly to the United States, sits on one of the worlds two largest certain oil reserves, the other being Saudi-Arabias, ie. about 300 billion barrels of oil for each of the two nations. But Venezuela is only in place 11 in the world when it comes to crude oil production. They export 1.514 million barrels of oil per day. China can buy just under half of the oil exports that the United States creams out of Venezuela. It is only because of Venezuela’s geographic location and nothing else, that China does not have a larger portion of the pie.

The United States imports a total of 7.850 million barrels of oil per day. That means they have to import more than half of these 7.850 million barrels of oil from the Middle East mainly. This would mean that their civilization can survive unaffected for more than 40 years by importing oil from just Saudi-Arabia, Iraq, Canada and Venezuela + the US own oil production, as long as production and the pie allotment remain constant as in 2016. But then they would have no Allies in Europe to take into account and they must consider at least one European partner – Britain.

The oil deposits at the Golan Heights are estimated to exceed Saudi-Arabia’s oil reserves. The CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 doesn’t mention any evidence of major oil deposits in Israel, but this was expected at this stage, regardless of whether there are any significant oil deposits in the ground at the Golan Heights or not. They do not like lying, but it is actually not proven beyond doubt that there are oil in large quantities at the Golan Heights. It could be an equally unsuccessful project, a mony drain, as with the supposed gas in Siljansringen in Sweden three decades ago.

The European Civilization may have only 20 years of its lifetime left, if we do not pump up our military muscles. The United States military force is an expeditionary one and will not be able to measure up to Europe’s total defense forces, at least not on the ground and at least not without a safe haven and deployment site and not without safe bases. But the Americans have no interest in occupying northwestern Europe. If the United States, together with Britain, are hogging the oil and running over or ignoring most European countries in the process, then England will be left to pick up the bill. It will end with an unintentionally neutering of Great Britain by the United States just as they were neutered by the Romans during the former migration period.

We do not behave like that. We sit on the best magnetic iron ore in the world, but we would never be so stupid that we thought we could become isolationistic while the rest of Europe or the world falls back into the Middle Ages. In that case, we would have to count on a war against an overwhelming opponent. Though in our case, a war against us by the Europeans had not been needed. We would have been goners logistically and materiel-wise anyway. America’s and Europe’s civilizations goes under together, with or without a great war. But good luck trying to get Trump to understand that!

Russia’s oil reserves are estimated to be 80 billion barrels (2017). It will be enough for 20 years if Russia is forced to supply Europe and China with the oil they are used to consuming throughout this time. Today, Russia exports ~50 percent of its oil production.

Azerbaijan’s oil will last for 23 years with its current production rate which is relatively low.

Norway’s oil reserves were 1/6 of the United States in 2017. The Norwegians produced 1,648,000 barrels of oil per day in 2016. They retained 253,000 of these barrels of oil for their own use in 2016. Export is at approximately 80 percent of the total production. Norway is able to produce oil for a further 10 years with the current production rate.

Sweden imported 394,000 barrels of oil per day in 2016. 45 percent of the crude oil came from Russia. 26 percent came from Norway, Nigeria accounted for 10 percent Venezuela for 7 percent and Denmark accounted for 13 percent in 2016.

Sources; CIA WORLD FACTBOOK; and the part about Sweden’s oil imports from the blog Cornucopia? by Lars Wilderäng

The worlds oil reserves of 1 trillion 726 billion barrels of oil in 2017 are sufficient for the whole world for maybe 18 years from 2019. However, there are uncertainties in these estimates. New oil fields are discovered on regular basis, and since 1991, we have declared peak oil every year. Also the Ugandan oil deposits probably wrecks my estimation a bit. But the southeast Asian countries’ economies are growing fast.

But it is more complicated than so. There are actually 161 different internationally traded crude oils on the stock market. It can seem insanely many since you as a consumer only have a few different options to choose from when you refuel your gasoline car. The crude oils all differ in terms of quality and price. Many grades of crude oil are suitable for production of plastics, diesel and fuel oil only. The Norwegian and British oil in the North Sea has been dubbed “Brent oil”. Brent oil is characterized by its high quality and it is suitable for making gasoline from. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also known as Texas Light Sweet, is also a type of high-quality crude oil suitable for making gasoline from, and it is used as a benchmark in oil pricing alongside Brent. Both crude oils are light (low density) and sweet (low in sulfur). Other important oil markers include Dubai Crude and OPEC Reference Basket.

Phosphates

Phosphates are used for manure and it is spread across farmlands around the world to achieve significantly larger harvests. Estimates of phosphate production are sometimes difficult to understand because the phosphates are mined in different forms. The dominant form is ”Phosphate Rock”, a mineral that is usually mined in open pits. Two thirds of the world production are mined in China, the United States and Morocco/Western Sahara. Morocco and the by Morocco occupied Western Sahara account for 30 percent of the export market.

US phosphate reserves will last for 30 years for US use only. The United States does not export phosphate ore. Neither does China. The worlds phosphate reserves are estimated to be around 15 billion tonnes, which is sufficient for the world-wide consumption for 90 years with current technology, according to the US Geological Survey. Phosphate production in the world will not come to a critical low level before the worlds oil reserves peter out. Thus, phosphate production in Morocco/Western Sahara is strategically secondary. This did not prevent the United States from making a bilateral trade deal with Morocco during 2006. The European Union didn’t jump on the train until two years later.

Homework:

Can you think of a reason why George W. Bush and the United States made a bilateral trade deal with Morocco during 2006?

Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden